We have all been informed about how the Economist at War or the economists who practice their knowledge to win the First World War and the Second World War.
It has been said over and over again that the basis of MMT (modern monetary theory) is that economists build war power so that they can win wars in the First World War and the Second World War.
Likewise in world war 3 today. Currently, physically, it may only be the war in Ukraine with Russia considered the aggressor, but there are data on more than 26,000 private soldiers in Ukraine from 27 countries around the world who are fighting against Russia. This means that even though it is an individual name, it turns out that many countries were also involved at the beginning of the 3rd world war, and we can interpret the war in Ukraine as a third world war.
We know that to become a big country this time we have to learn from Russia, from the way Russia handles war economically. how even if you have to pay for the war, even if it is embargoed, even if it is subject to economic sanctions, the Russian ruble is the strongest currency in the world today.
Why did it happen like that? We've all heard the same information in recent weeks around the world food prices are rising, scarce goods are out of stock, energy prices are rising, and many world currencies are weakening.
We discussed the last one, namely currencies in many countries of the world losing value or weakening since the beginning of 2022. We see the Japanese Yen which has weakened 18 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year which is the worst Yen weakening in the last 27 years.
Currently, One dollar = 136 yen compared to when Russia invaded Ukraine, One dollar = 115 yen. Likewise in South Korea in February One dollar = 1,221 won, and now the exchange rate of 1 US$ = 1,300 won.
Likewise with the Philippine Peso, US $ 1 = 54 Pesos which is the lowest value in 17 years the peso against the dollar. The Indian Rupee is down, the Indonesian Rupiah is down, the Chinese Yuan is down, and guess which currency hasn't fallen in value?
Your guess is right. Russian ruble. We explain briefly when the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the exchange rate of 1 US$ = 85 rubles. Then came the embargoes, boycotts, and trade sanctions on Russia that should have destroyed the Russian economy.
It turns out that today 1 dollar = 53 Rubles. This means that the Ruble strengthened by 35 percent within four months. How can the ruble strengthen against the dollar?
As we know, the currencies of countries directly involved in war usually weaken, let alone those that were invaded. The Russian ruble is the other way around, why? How did it happen? supposedly economic sanctions would render the ruble worthless. Perhaps the value of the ruble remaining half should be.
If before the war, the exchange rate of 1 dollar = 85 rubles maybe $1 should now be 500 rubles, but why is it strengthening? which happened for three reasons.
First. Russia runs a Capital Control Measure, which is about anticipating what steps will happen if an economic war is carried out by the opposing party to defend the Russian economy.
Russia must maintain the Russian currency, namely the ruble. Russia's Central Bank has made anticipatory policies Long before the west acted to attack the Russian economy with sanctions, embargoes, and boycotts, namely with a strategy to keep money from Russia from leaving Russia or keep the money Inside Russia.
If you are a businessman in Russia, you are an export company that generates income in foreign currency. Say $100,000,000,- then 80% of what has to be exchanged is Russian rubles, you can't leave Russia, and you are forced to exchange foreign currency for rubles and force money to circulate in Russia.
2nd Answer. Western countries pay for gas in rubles or gold. With this policy, the need for rubles continues to increase.
3rd answer. Import control. Russia restricts imports so that Russia's need for dollars is almost non-existent. Russia forbids all things related to imports using foreign currencies plus Russia's strategic partner, namely China, uses the ruble in trade between two countries, this country is really playing smart with both of them.
So the strengthening of the Russian ruble is not an organic market reaction but it is indeed well designed, indeed creating a need for the ruble. Many bits of intelligence do not think China's power can reach 53 China per dollar.
It is estimated that the most strengthening up to 70 rubles per dollar even though the trade price of Russian goods is becoming expensive at this time. But the Russian economy knows that Russian-produced goods are irreplaceable such as gas, oil, coal, grain fertilizers, and so on.
At least Russian products cannot be replaced quickly, it will take 2 years to build a new gas pipeline, while in 1 month Germany will experience darkness because there is no electricity, and Germany returns to using dirty energy, namely Coal, which Germany used to insult new coal-producing countries as a dirty country.
Now Germany was hit by karma for his own statement. European countries will experience winter, need a lot of gas that can't be met in 2 months, and it is possible to buy gas from India, but it is very expensive.
There is another negative side in Russia when compared to the strengthening of the ruble or the effect of the ruble, namely inflation in Russia reached 17% to 7% decreased, the unemployment rate increased to 9%, but the shockwave or deteriorating economic indicators did not only belong to Russia.
England for example, inflation is 9% which is the worst in the last 40 years. This exacerbates the situation The Bank Of England estimates that UK inflation will double-digit to 11% by the end of 2002.
This resulted in many demonstrations taking place in the UK such as the railroad workers in England who quit work recently then the teachers in the UK are preparing for demonstrations demanding the government deal with the severe inflation problem by for example raising their salaries or lowering taxes, but the Prime Minister England's Boris Johnson did not want to comply with the demonstrators' wishes for fear that something like the 1970s would happen where the Government, to deal with inflation, increased wages, turned out to be counter-productive, and inflation increased because they were lazy, pending goods not made in England.
With this information, prepare your gold investment savings reserves, because the value of gold is increasing every year, due to hyperinflation in European and Western countries that have not been announced. Do you want to be like Sri Lanka?
#GEOPOLITICS
No comments:
Post a Comment