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Caring for Production Increase expectations

 


    The national fuel consumption which is projected to continue to increase makes the target of oil production of 1 million barrels per day and gas of 12,000 MMscfd in 2030 to be crucial at a time when Indonesia's efforts to build energy independence.

    Meanwhile, Indonesia is still the country with the largest oil imports in Southeast Asia due to the increasing domestic consumption of oil and gas without a significant increase in production.

    In the last 2 decades, the discovery of new oil reserves has been classified as minimal and Indonesia still relies on old wells that have not been explored. As a result, the government must import oil and gas to meet domestic energy needs, which often creates a trade balance deficit.

    In the next 10 years, petroleum consumption in Indonesia is projected at 2.27 million barrels per day (BPD) and natural gas consumption of around 11,728 MMscfd. This number has almost doubled compared to last year's consumption of around 1.66 million BPD of oil and 6,557 MMscfd of gas.

    On the other hand, the government's efforts to increase oil production to 1 million BPD and gas to 12,000 MMscfd are still fraught with a number of challenges. One of them is the Covid-19 pandemic which has had a negative impact on the upstream oil and gas industry.

Blogger Agus Purnomo in SKK Migas

    Secretary of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) Taslim Z. Yunus said Indonesia's upstream oil and gas industry was influenced by global conditions caused by the level of control of the Covid-19 pandemic, fluctuations in world oil prices, and global investment trends.

    According to him, a tough challenge for the upstream oil and gas industry is the massive impact of Covid-19 which has caused oil prices to fall. As a result, production has also decreased, because oil and gas companies tend to reduce their investment.

    Last year, a number of international oil and gas companies that cut their investment were ExxonMobil by 30%, Shell by 20%, Chevron 20%, BP 25%, and Eni 255.

"What they need is to compete with other countries from the IRR, then the future trend is to look at environmentally friendly energy because from a social point of view it will be easier," he said.

    Meanwhile, SKK Migas has prepared four strategies to increase national oil and gas production as well as towards the 2030 production target, namely by optimizing production in existing fields, transforming resources into production, accelerating chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), and exploring major discoveries.

    The long-term strategy will go through two stages to curb the rate of decline in production and increase production.

"The first and second strategies are to hold down the rate of production, while the increase in production will result from the EOR and exploration strategies," he explained.

    Head of SKK Migas Dwi Soetjipto added that investment needs will continue to increase for the next 10 years in order to pursue the oil production target of 1 million BPD and gas of 12,000 MMscfd. The investment is set at the US $ 187 billion.

    Dwi said that besides being attractive to investors, the target could provide a multiplier effect in the form of the gross revenue of US $ 371 billion with state revenues of US $ 131 billion in 2030. In addition, with money circulating from upstream oil and gas projects and open job opportunities, it will have an impact. both for the national and regional economies.

    Nevertheless, there are several challenges that need to be resolved domestically, namely the complexity of licensing, overlapping regulations between the central and regional governments, an unattractive fiscal regime, data unavailability, constraints in the area of ​​operation, land acquisition constraints, the longer oil and gas monetization process. and fear of making decisions, in this case, the criminalization of policies.

    Meanwhile, Ronald Gunawan, President Director of PT Medco E&P Indonesia, said 2020 was a difficult year for the upstream oil and gas industry. The Covid-19 pandemic has suppressed the performance of cooperation contract contractors (KKKS).

    According to him, the world oil price dropped drastically in the last year and followed by low natural gas prices made the upstream oil and gas sector languish. However, with efforts escorted by the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas), operational activities can continue in the midst of a pandemic.

"SKK Migas support is very good. Hence, the operations of the KKKS are a little disrupted but not significant, ”he said.

Ronald said the vision to pursue the oil production target of 1 million BPD and 12,000 MMscfd of gas by 2030 has become a joint commitment of the government, SKK Migas, and KKKS.

    Meanwhile, since 2015 Medco has continued to increase its oil and gas production levels from the range of 56,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboepd) to reach the level of 100,000 Mboepd in 2020.

    According to him, the Covid-19 pandemic provides new lessons for running operations more efficiently. With a 20% reduction in capital expenditure or capital expenditure, Medco is still able to record an increase in production amid the pandemic.

INCENTIVE

    An energy observer who once served as Governor of Indonesia for OPEC, Widhyawan Prawiraatmadja, said that there needs to be an incentive provided by the government to be able to pursue the target of increasing oil and gas production.

    He said that it is possible to increase oil and gas production again in Indonesia. He gave an example that other countries, such as the United States and Mexico, had successfully implemented reliable technology, improved fiscal policy, and improved the business climate in an integrated manner.

"We have to do something drastic, the fiscal term must be the same as in other places. "The higher the spend, the higher the chances of getting the giant, this has been proven in Mexico," he said.

    Meanwhile, a Member of the National Energy Council, Satya Widya Yudha, said that in the context of energy security, the government needs to pay attention to affordability.

    Therefore, fossil energy will still be very dominant in the future, but still paying attention to environmental factors that will be supported by technology.

"So if our renewable energy is still less affordable, as a whole people will go to fossils, the world will go to fossils," he said.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-4, Thursday, April 29, 2021.

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