Ready for Fuel Price Increases

Next year's oil and gas industry is still dependent on the global escalation that determines world oil prices. On the downstream side, the potential for fuel price hikes in the shadows is in line with rising oil prices. In the upstream sector, the effectiveness of investment incentives has become an issue for investors.

The world's crude oil prices are in a crawl uptrend. The price of Indonesian crude price (ICP) in November 2017 rose to USD 59 per barrel or higher by 9.21 percent from October 2017 which reached USD 54.02 per barrel. The government is also open to re-align the price of fuel oil (BBM) with fluctuations in world oil prices in 2018.

Director General of Oil and Gas of ESDM Ministry Ego Syahrial stated that if the beginning of the year the price of crude oil reaches to the level of USD 60 per barrel, the government will adjust the price of fuel. As of December 22, 2017, the price of WTI crude oil was at USD 58.18 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent reached at USD 64.75 per barrel.

"Early 2018 we see if the price of oil above USD 60 per barrel, the possibility we will adjust the setting," he said.

If the price of crude oil above USD 60 per barrel, the price of gasoline/ premium is very likely to go up. However, the government will try to find ways to keep fuel prices efficient at the time of rising crude oil prices. It is wrong to change the calculation of price formulation.

For example, efficient overhead costs Pertamina. The government is trying to maintain public purchasing power. In addition to changing the price formula, the government plans to extend the evaluation of fuel prices. If the current price evaluation is set per three months, it is possible that the pricing is done longer. That is, every year.

The determination of energy prices in Indonesia is not easy. On the one hand, should be accustomed to adjusted to market prices because Indonesia is an oil importer. On the other hand, the balance of people's purchasing power must be maintained. In APBN 2018, the government still sets ICP price assumption at the level of USD 48 per barrel.

Meanwhile, as of November, ICP continues to climb to as low as USD 59 per barrel. The rise in ICP affects the country's rising revenue next year. Energy subsidies will also increase. In APBN 2018, energy subsidy is set at Rp 94.5 trillion. In details, LPG subsidy of 3 kilogram (kg) tubes reached Rp 46 trillion and electricity subsidy of Rp 47.6 trillion.

Retail PSO Manager PT Pertamina Boy Frans Justus Lapian said Pertamina still opens the opportunity to raise the price of non-PSO (public service obligation) fuel such as Pertalite and Pertamax as world oil prices continue to rise.

"We can not predict because the world oil price is very difficult to predict up and down," he said.

According to Boy, world oil price becomes Pertamina's main parameter to raise fuel prices.

"But beyond that, there is another indicator that Pertamina still cannot raise the price drastically because it is very possible that our market share is decreasing, it needs a lot of parameters to determine the fuel price," he explained.

IN INDONESIA

Siap-Siap Harga BBM Naik

Industri migas tahun depan masih bergantung eskalasi global yang menjadi penentu harga minyak dunia. Di sisi hilir, potensi kenaikan BBM di bayangi seiring dengan kenaikan harga minyak. Di sektor hulu, efektivitas insentif investasi menjadi hal yang ditunggu investor. 

Harga minyak mentah dunia dalam tren merangkak naik. Harga Indonesian crude price (ICP) pada November 2017 naik menjadi USD 59 per barel atau lebih tinggi 9,21 persen dari Oktober 2017 yang mencapai USD 54,02 per barel. Pemerintah pun terbuka untuk kembali menyelaraskan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) dengan fluktuasi harga minyak dunia pada 2018.

Direktur Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi Kementerian ESDM (ESDM) Ego Syahrial menyatakan, jika awal tahun harga minyak mentah mencapai ke level USD 60 per barel, pemerintah akan menyesuaikan harga BBM. Per 22 Desember 2017, harga minyak mentah WTI berada di level USD 58,18 per barel. Sementara itu, Brent mencapai di angka USD 64,75 per barel.

”Awal 2018 kami lihat jika harga minyak di atas USD 60 per barel, kemungkinan penetapan akan kami sesuaikan," ujarnya. 

Bila harga minyak mentah di atas USD 60 per barel, harga bensin/premium sangat mungkin ikut naik. Namun, pemerintah bakal berupaya mencari cara agar harga BBM tetap efisien di saat kenaikan harga minyak mentah. Salah situ caranya mengubah perhitungan formulasi harga. 

Misalnya, mengefisienkan biaya overhead Pertamina. Pemerintah memang berusaha menjaga daya beli masyarakat. Selain mengubah formula harga, pemerintah berencana memperpanjang evaluasi harga BBM. Jika saat ini evaluasi harga ditetapkan per tiga bulan, sangat mungkin penetapan harga dilakukan lebih lama. Yakni, setiap satu tahun.

Penentuan harga energi di Indonesia memang tidak mudah. Pada satu sisi, harus terbiasa disesuaikan dengan harga pasar karena Indonesia merupakan importer minyak. Di sisi lain, keseimbangan daya beli masyarakat harus dijaga. Dalam APBN 2018, pemerintah masih menetapkan asumsi harga ICP pada level USD 48 per barel. 

Sementara itu, per November, ICP terus naik hingga ke level USD 59 per barel. Naiknya ICP tersebut berdampak pada penerimaan negara yang meningkat pada tahun depan. Subsidi energi juga bakal meningkat. Pada APBN 2018, subsidi energi ditetapkan Rp 94,5 triliun. Perinciannya, subsidi LPG tabung 3 kilogram (kg) mencapai Rp 46 triliun dan subsidi listrik Rp 47,6 triliun.

Manager Retail PSO PT Pertamina Boy Frans Justus Lapian mengungkapkan, Pertamina tetap membuka peluang untuk menaikkan harga BBM non-PSO (public service obligation) seperti pertalite maupun pertamax saat harga minyak dunia terus naik. 

"Kami belum bisa memprediksi. Sebab, harga minyak dunia memang sangat sulit diprediksi naik maupun turun,” ungkapnya.

Menurut Boy, harga minyak dunia menjadi parameter utama Pertamina untuk menaikkan harga BBM. 

"Tetapi, di luar itu, ada indikator lain. Pertamina tetap tidak bisa menaikkan harga secara drastis. Sebab, sangat mungkin, justru pangsa pasar kami yang menurun. Diperlukan banyak parameter untuk menentukan harga BBM," terangnya.

Jawa Pos, Page-5, Wednesday, Dec 27, 2017