Opens in 2017, oil prices immediately shot to its highest level since September 2015. The impact of restrictions on oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some oil-producing countries began to be felt.
Tuesday (3/1) at 17:28 pm. WTI oil price in February 2017 delivery contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 233% to US $ 54.97 per barrel. Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia Tradepoint Futures analyst, said earlier this year the crude oil is driven by a variety of positive sentiment.
First, agreement OPEC production limits by 1.2 million barrels per day, or with a production target of 32.5 to 33 million barrels per day, down from 33.64 million barrels per day.
Production cut is one done by Kuwait. Citing the newspaper Al-Anba, Kuwait Oil Co. cut production of 130,000 barrels per day to production only to 2.75 million barrels per day.
Second, "The positive sentiment came from Donald Trump on Twitter nudge that warned North Korea to no longer launch a ballistic missile test," said Deddy. Deteriorating geopolitical conditions could, affect the distribution and oil prices.
Third, the spending index manager Caixin China's manufacturing sector in December rose to 51.9 from 50.9 in November level. With this improvement, it is expected Chinese oil imports will increase. Finex Futures analyst Nana Wahyudi also saw positive sentiment will continue until mid-year.
Some oil-producing countries are planning new restrictions on production starting at the end of the first quarter Oman example, will reduce production in March and Russia mid-year. With the positive sentiment, Nana can predict oil prices rose to US $ 80 per barrel this year. But the pricing challenge some negative sentiment could also put a halt to oil prices.
According to Nanang, the strengthening of the US dollar to watch. Moreover, on January 20, Donald Trump will be officially inaugurated US president. Trump progressive policies could strengthen the US dollar. Though positive sentiment towards the dollar will inhibit the rise in oil prices, "he explained. Moreover, oil production in the US and Canada increased.
Earlier this year, Uncle Sam has had 525 active oil rigs. Meanwhile, Canada is predicted to increase oil production from 10,000 barrels to 31,000 barrels a year. Technically, the price of oil rolling over the line moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 and MA 200.
Then the relative strength index (RSI) has been in the positive area, namely the level 57. MACD is also perched on the positive area. However, the stochastic showed a decline to a level of 38. Today (4/1) Deddy estimates, the oil price will move in the range of US $ 35 53.60-US $ 56.07 per barrel. The next week prices will move between US $ 53.60 US $ 56.7 per barrel. While according to the count Nana, oil prices today moved in the range of US $ 53 - US $ 54.70 and move between US $ 50-US $ 56.25 per barrel the next week.
IN INDONESIAN
Kenaikan Harga Minyak Belum Selesai
Membuka tahun 2017, harga minyak langsung melesat ke level tertinggi sejak September 2015. Dampak pembatasan produksi minyak oleh Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dan beberapa negara penghasil minyak mulai terasa.Selasa (3/1) pukul 17.28 WIB. harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Februari 2017 di New York Mercantile EXchange menguat 233% ke level US$ 54.97 per barel. Deddy Yusuf Siregar, analis Asia Tradepoint Futures, mengatakan, awal tahun ini minyak mentah didorong oleh berbagai sentimen positif.
Pertama, kesepakatan pembatasan produksi OPEC sebanyak 1,2 juta barel per hari, atau dengan target produksi 32,5-33 juta barel per hari, turun dari sebelumnya 33,64 juta barel per hari.
Pemangkasan produksi salah satunya dilakukan oleh Kuwait. Mengutip Surat kabar Al-Anba, Kuwait Oil Co memangkas produksi 130.000 barel per hari sehingga produksinya hanya menjadi 2,75 juta barel per hari.
Kedua, “Sentimen positif juga datang dari Cuitan Donald Trump di Twitter yang memperingatkan Korea Utara agar tidak lagi meluncurkan uji coba rudal balistik," kata Deddy. Memburuknya kondisi geopolitik bisa. mempengaruhi distribusi dan harga minyak.
Ketiga, indeks belanja manajer sektor manufaktur CaiXin China di Desember meningkat ke level 51.9 dari bulan November di level 50.9. Dengan perbaikan ini, diharapkan impor minyak China akan meningkat. Analis Finex Berjangka Nanang Wahyudi juga melihat, sentimen positif masih akan berlanjut hingga pertengahan tahun.
Beberapa negara penghasil minyak baru merencanakan pembatasan produksi mulai pada akhir kuartal I. Misalnya Oman baru akan mengurangi produksi pada bulan Maret dan Rusia pertengahan tahun ini. Dengan sentimen positif tersebut, Nanang memprediksi harga minyak bisa menguat hingga US $ 80 per barel tahun ini. Tantangan harga Tetapi sejumlah sentimen negatif juga bisa menahan laju harga minyak.
Menurut Nanang, penguatan dollar AS perlu diwaspadai. Apalagi pada 20 Januari Donald Trump akan resmi dilantik jadi presiden AS. Kebijakan Trump yang progresif bisa memperkuat dollar AS. Padahal sentimen positif terhadap dollar akan menghambat kenaikan harga minyak," terang dia. Apalagi, produksi minyak di AS dan Kanada meningkat.
Awal tahun ini, Negeri Paman Sam telah memiliki 525 rig minyak aktif. Sedangkan, Kanada diprediksi akan menaikkan produksi minyak dari 10.000 barel menjadi 31.000 barel per tahun. Secara teknikal, harga minyak bergulir di atas garis moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 dan MA 200.
Kemudian relative strength index (RSI) telah berada di area positif, yakni level 57. MACD juga bertengger di area positif. Namun stochastic menunjukkan penurunan ke level 38. Hari ini (4/1) Deddy memperkirakan, harga minyak akan bergerak di rentang US$ 35 53,60-US$ 56,07 per barel. Sepekan ke depan harga akan bergerak antara US$ 53,60 US$ 56,7 per barel. Sementara menurut hitungan Nanang, harga minyak hari ini bergerak di kisaran US$ 53 - US$ 54,70 dan bergerak antara US$ 50-US$ 56,25 per barel sepekan ke depan.
Kompas, Page-17, Wednesday, Jan, 4, 2017
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