Based on the 2018-2027 Indonesia Natural Gas Balance Sheet, gas supply up to 2024 is still surplus, so there is no need for imports. However, the gas balance has a potential deficit from 2025. The gas balance does not take into account production and the Abadi Field, Masela Block and East Natuna Block. Both oil and gas working areas have very significant gas reserves. When calculating gas production from the two jumbo fields, gas supply in the country is still quite abundant.
Indonesian Gas Balance 2018-2027 issued by the Ministry of Energy and can help investors, business entities, and ministries / institutions that want data and information related to national natural gas. The composition of domestic natural gas utilization in 2017 rose to 59%, while exports were 41%. Domestic natural gas utilization consists of industry (23.18%), electricity (14.09%), fertilizer (10.64%), oil and gas lifting (2.73%), and domestic liquefied natural gas / LNG (5, 64%).
In addition, domestic gas is also used for domestic LPG / LPG (2.17%) and household gas networks and gas refueling stations (0.15%). Exports of natural gas amounting to 41% consist of shipping through pipes 12.04% and in the form of LNG amounting to 29.37%. ESDM Deputy Minister Arcandra Tahar said that the preparation of the gas balance resulted in three natural gas consumption and supply scenarios.
The method for preparing the Indonesian Gas Balance Sheet 20-20-2027 has differences with the Indonesia Gas Balance 2009-2017. Based on the previous gas balance, gas demand comes from the need for contracted gas and potential gas needs.
"So today is clarification if there are some doubts [related to our gas balance. For each region, don't misperceive. There are some regions say shortage [gas deficit], this is an assumption now not in the next few years, "he said in the presentation of the Indonesian Gas Balance Sheet 2018-2027.
In the 2009-2017 Indonesia Gas Balance, the growth dynamics of natural gas demand shows fluctuating data. For example, the growth of gas demand in 2010 was 8%, while in 2015 only 5%. Arcandra said that the fluctuations in the growth of gas demand were due to unstable policies and the average price of different gases.
"However, this is not connected to ICP [Indonesian crude oil], the price of the pipeline gas continues to rise. But the key price of gas is upstream and midstream [distribution], "he added.
Meanwhile, the projection of gas needs in the Indonesia Gas Balance 2018-2027 is divided into three scenarios. Scenario I, the gas balance in 2018-2027 is surplus. The surplus gas balance because the gas demand projection calculation refers to the realization of natural gas utilization and the long-term pipeline and LNG gas export contracts are not extended.
The balance sheet uses the projected growth of the gas industry to grow 1.1% and Indonesia's economic growth of 5.5%. Scenario II, the gas balance in 2018-2024 remains surplus. However, the gas balance in 2025-2027 has a potential natural gas deficit. The calculation has not considered the potential gas supply from the discovery of new reserves and future gas contracts such as the Masela Block and East Natuna Block.
East Natuna Block
In the scenario of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the assumption of using gas from existing contracts is 100% realized. The use of gas for the electricity sector is also projected in accordance with the 2018-2027 General Electricity Procurement Plan (RUPTL). The assumption of growth in natural gas demand is in line with economic growth, which is 5.5% for the retail industry sector. In addition, the implementation of the revitalization of the oil refinery operates in accordance with the target. The construction of a petrochemical and fertilizer plant is also assumed to operate on schedule.
Scenario III, the gas balance is projected to be surplus in the period 2019-2024. Meanwhile, in 2025-2027 there is a potential natural gas deficit. However, in scenario III, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has not considered the potential of gas supply from the discovery of new reserves and future gas contracts such as the Masela Block and East Natuna Block.
The projection of gas requirements in scenario III uses the assumption that gas utilization from existing contracts is 100% realized and gas utilization for the electricity sector is in accordance with RUPTL 2018-2027. In addition, the retail industry sector utilizes gas at maximum plant capacity and increases demand from economic growth of 5.5%.
In addition, the implementation of the revitalization of the oil refinery is projected on schedule. Implementation of the construction of a new petrochemical and fertilizer plant on schedule. Arcandra said that with different methodologies, Indonesia's natural gas balance would be recalculated every year. It follows the revised RUPTL which is also revised every year.
"Why change because the biggest off taker is PT. PLN and they also changed [RUPTL]. "
SLOW INFRASTRUCTURE
On the other hand, businesses complain that the development of natural gas infrastructure is operating slowly so that the industry still faces challenges in the price and supply of natural gas. In the 2018-2027 Indonesia Natural Gas Balance Sheet, domestic gas needs until 2024 are still in surplus. However, gas supply from 2025 must be added. Additional gas supply can be done through increasing new gas reserves and accelerating the development of potential gas fields.
Chairman of the Glass and Sheet Glass Association Yustinus H. Gunawan said, from the exposure to the gas balance, the government actually provided an opportunity to reduce gas prices. However, the government only looks at the economic and gas infrastructure factors. In fact, infrastructure development such as gas pipelines can spur industrial growth. The Cirebon-Semarang segment gas pipeline plan can supply gas to industries around the pipeline.
"Floating storage regasification units [gas storage and regasification facilities] also cannot be handled. In fact, the key to the gas is infrastructure because the gas must be flowed continuously. And what is most likely to continue to be used is the pipe, "he said.
According to him, interconnection region 1 (northern Sumatra) -region 3 (Central Java) is most likely to occur with pipeline infrastructure. He cited the connection between the Cirebon-Semarang gas pipeline, not only providing solutions to industrial players in Central Java, but also connecting Sumatra and Java gas connections. Block A gas production in Aceh of 67.4 MMscfd will also increase gas supply in region 1.
Gas supply in the region I (northern Sumatra) can increase from PHE NSO-NSB and ENI Krueng Mane Ltd. Gas supply in region 2 (central, southern and West Java Sumatra) faces the challenge of reducing Pertamina EP Asset II gas production. Lampung FSRU facilities can be an alternative to supply gas in the region. However, the price of gas from the FSRU is still an obstacle because it is still considered too high. There are several strategic upstream oil and gas projects in the region 2, such as Bison, Iguana, Gajah Puteri and field development by Premier Oil with an estimated gas production of 163 MMscfd in the 3/2019 quarter.
In addition, there is a potential supply of East Natuna gas supply of 1,000 MMscfd and PetroChina for Tiung Field in central and southern Sumatra reaching 100 MMscfd in 2027. Region 3 (East Java) can rely on the Semarang-Gresik gas pipeline with gas supply from Jambaran Field -Tiimg Biru. President Director & CEO of PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk. Bobby Gafur Umar said that the development of gas pipelines must look at the economic aspects, namely from the supply and demand side.
"If we look at the supply, there is a lot of surplus, but if there is no demand, that is what is now being identified in East Kalimantan and South Kalimantan [Bakrie gas pipeline project," he said.
According to him, the concept of gas pipeline development is not much different from toll roads, namely the potential of customers and users of these facilities.
"Deputy Minister Arcandra Tahar said that gas supply would not occur if there was no infrastructure. Well, we are now ready with supply, until the end of the year it is expected that gas demand from consumers will be known.
IN INDONESIA
Suplai Gas Masih Surplus Sampai 2024
Berdasarkan Neraca Gas Bumi Indonesia 2018-2027, pasokan gas hingga 2024 masih surplus sehingga tidak perlu impor. Namun, neraca gas berpotensi defisit mulai 2025. Neraca gas tersebut belum memperhitungkan produksi dan Lapangan Abadi, Blok Masela dan Blok East Natuna. Kedua wilayah kerja migas itu memiliki cadangan gas sangat signifikan. Bila memperhitungkan produksi gas dari kedua lapangan jumbo tersebut, pasokan gas di Tanah Air masih cukup melimpah.
Neraca Gas Indonesia 2018-2027 yang diterbitkan Kementerian Energi dan dapat membantu investor, badan usaha, dan kementerian/lembaga yang menginginkan data dan informasi terkait gas bumi nasional. Komposisi pemanfaatan gas bumi di dalam negeri pada 2017 naik menjadi 59%,sedangkan ekspor 41%. Pemanfaatan gas bumi domestik tersebut terdiri atas industri (23,18%), kelistrikan (14,09%), pupuk (10,64%), lifting migas (2,73%), dan liquefied natural gas/ LNG domestik (5,64%).
Selain itu, gas domestik juga digunakan untuk elpiji/LPG domestik (2,17%) dan jaringan gas rumah tangga dan stasiun pengisian bahan bakar gas (0,15%). Ekspor gas bumi sebesar 41% terdiri atas pengiriman melalui pipa 12,04% dan dalam bentuk LNG sebesar 29,37%. Wakil Menteri ESDM Arcandra Tahar mengatakan bahwa penyusunan neraca gas itu menghasilkan tiga skenario konsumsi dan pasokan gas bumi.
Metode penyusunan Neraca Gas Indonesia 20l8-2027 memiliki perbedadan dengan Neraca Gas Indonesia 2009-2017. Berdasarkan neraca gas sebelumnya, kebutuhan gas berasal dari kebutuhan gas yang sudah terkontrak dan kebutuhan gas yang masih potensial.
“Jadi hari ini klarifikasi kalau ada beberapa keraguan [terkait dengan neraca gas kita. Bagi per region juga, jangan salah persepsi. Ada region katakan shortage [defisit gas] sekian, ini asumsi sekarang bukan beberapa tahun mendatang,” katanya dalam paparan Neraca Gas Bumi Indonesia 2018-2027.
Dalam Neraca Gas Indonesia 2009-2017, dinamika pertumbuhan kebutuhan gas bumi menunjukkan data yang fluktuatif. Sebagai contoh, pertumbuhan kebutuhan gas pada 2010 sebesar 8%, sedangkan pada 2015 hanya 5%. Arcandra menyebut, fluktuasi pertumbuhan kebutuhan gas itu sebagai akibat kebijakan yang tidak stabil dan rerata harga gas yang berbeda.
“Namun, ini tidak tersambung ke ICP [minyak mentah Indonesi], harga gas pipa itu naik terus. Tapi kunci harga gas itu di hulu dan midstream [distribusi],” tambahnya.
Sementara itu, proyeksi kebutuhan gas dalam Neraca Gas Indonesia 2018-2027 dibagi menjadi tiga skenario. Skenario I, neraca gas pada 2018-2027 surplus. Neraca gas surplus karena perhitungan proyeksi kebutuhan gas mengacu pada realisasi pemanfaatan gas bumi serta tidak diperpanjangnya kontrak-kontrak ekspor gas pipa dan LNG untuk jangka Panjang.
Neraca itu menggunakan proyeksi pertumbuhan industri gas tumbuh 1,1% dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 5,5%. Skenario II, neraca gas pada 2018-2024 tetap surplus. Namun, neraca gas pada 2025-2027 ada potensi defisit gas bumi. Hitungan tersebut belum mempertimbangkan adanya potensi pasokan gas dari penemuan cadangan baru dan kontrak gas di masa mendatang seperti Blok Masela dan Blok East Natuna.
Dalam skenario Kementerian ESDM menggunakan asumsi pemanfaatan gas dari kontrak yang sudah ada terealisasi 100%. Pemanfaatan gas untuk sektor kelistrikan juga diproyeksikan sesuai dengan Rencana Umum Pengadaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) 2018-2027. Asumsi pertumbuhan permintaan gas bumi sesuai dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi, yaitu 5,5% untuk sektor industri ritel. Selain itu, pelaksanaan revitalisasi kilang minyak beroperasi sesuai dengan target. Pelaksanaan pembangunan pabrik petrokimia dan pupuk juga diasumsikan beroperasi sesuai jadwal.
Skenario III, neraca gas diproyeksi surplus dalam kurun 2019-2024. Sementara itu, pada 2025-2027 terdapat potensi defisit gas bumi. Namun, dalam skenario III, Kementerian ESDM belum mempertimbangkan potensi pasokan gas dari penemuan cadangan baru dan kontrak gas di masa mendatang seperti Blok Masela dan Blok East Natuna.
Proyeksi kebutuhan gas pada skenario III menggunakan asumsi pemanfaatan gas dari kontrak yang sudah ada terealisasi 100% dan pemanfaatan gas untuk sektor kelistrikan sesuai dengan RUPTL 2018-2027. Selain itu, sektor industri ritel memanfaatkan gas pada kapasitas pabrik maksimum serta penambahan permintaan dari pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,5%.
Selain itu, pelaksanaan revitalisasi kilang minyak diproyeksikan sesuai jadwal. Pelaksanaan pembangunan pabrik baru petrokimia dan pupuk sesuai jadwal. Arcandra mengatakan bahwa dengan adanya perbedaan metodologi, neraca gas bumi Indonesia akan dihitung ulang setiap tahun. Hal itu mengikuti perubahan RUPTL yang juga direvisi setiap tahun.
“Kenapa berubah karena off taker [penyerap] terbesarnya itu PT. PLN dan mereka juga berubah [RUPTL].”
INFRASTRUKTUR LAMBAT
Di sisi lain, pelaku usaha mengeluhkan pembangunan infrastruktur gas bumi beroperasi lambat sehingga industri masih menghadapi tantangan harga dan suplai gas bumi. Dalam Neraca Gas Bumi Indonesia 2018-2027, kebutuhan gas domestik sampai 2024 masih surplus. Namun, pasokan gas mulai 2025 harus ditambah. Tambahan suplai gas dapat di lakukan melalui peningkatan cadangan gas baru dan percepatan pengembangan lapangan gas potensial.
Ketua Umum Asosiasi Kaca Lembaran dan Pengaman Yustinus H. Gunawan mengatakan, dari paparan neraca gas itu terlihat pemerintah sebenarnya memberikan peluang untuk menurunkan harga gas. Namun, pemerintah hanya melihat faktor keekonomian dan infrastruktur gas. Padahal, pembangunan infrasturktur seperti pipa gas mampu memacu pertumbuhan industri. Rencana pipa gas ruas Cirebon-Semarang dapat menyuplai gas untuk industri di sekitar jalur pipa tersebut.
“Floating storage regasification unit [fasilitas penyimpanan dan regasifikasi gas] juga tidak bisa dipegang pengerjaannya. Padahal, kunci dari gas itu adalah infrastruktur karena gas itu harus dialirkan terus. Dan yang paling mungkin terpakai terus adalah pipa,” katanya.
Menurutnya, interkoneksi region 1 (Sumatra bagian utara)-region 3 (Jawa Tengah) paling mungkin terjadi dengan infrasturktur pipa. Dia mencontohkan tersambungnya pipa gas Cirebon-Semarang, bukan hanya memberikan solusi kepada pelaku industri di Jawa Tengah, tetapi juga menyambungkan koneksi gas Sumatra dan Jawa. Produksi gas Blok A di Aceh sebesar 67,4 MMscfd juga akan menambah pasokan gas di region 1.
Suplai gas di region I (Sumatra bagian utara) bisa bertambah dari PHE NSO-NSB dan ENI Krueng Mane Ltd. Suplai gas di region 2 (Sumatra bagian tengah, selatan, dan Jawa Barat) menghadapi tantangan penurunan produksi gas Pertamina EP Aset II. Fasilitas FSRU Lampung dapat menjadi alternatif memasok gas di region tersebut. Namun, harga gas dari FSRU masih menjadi kendala karena dinilai masih terlalu tinggi. Ada beberapa proyek hulu migas yang strategis di region 2, seperti Bison, Iguana, Gajah Puteri dan pengembangan lapangan oleh Premier Oil dengan estimasi produksi gas sebesar 163 MMscfd pada kuartal 3/2019.
Selain itu, ada potensi suplai pasokan gas East Natuna sebesar 1.000 MMscfd dan PetroChina untuk Lapangan Tiung di Sumatra bagian tengah dan selatan mencapai 100 MMscfd pada 2027. Region 3 (Jawa Timur) bisa mengandalkan pipa gas ruas Semarang-Gresik dengan pasokan gas dari Lapangan Jambaran-Tiimg Biru. Direktur Utama & CEO PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk. Bobby Gafur Umar mengatakan bahwa pembangunan pipa gas harus melihat aspek keekonomian, yaitu dari sisi suplai dan permintaan.
“Kalau dilihat dari suplai memang surplus banyak, tetapi kalau permintaannya tidak ada, itu yang sekarang bahwa sedang diidentifikasikan di Kalimantan Timur dan Kalimantan Selatan [proyek pipa gas Bakrie,” katanya.
Menurutnya, konsep pembangunan pipa gas tidak jauh berbeda dengan jalan tol, yaitu potensi pelanggan dan pengguna fasilitas tersebut.
“Pak Wakil Menteri Arcandra Tahar bilang pasokan gas tidak akan terjadi kalau tidak ada infrasturktur. Nah, kami sekarang sudah siap dengan suplai, sampai akhir tahun diharapkan sudah bisa diketahui permintaan gas dari konsumen.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-24, Tuesday, Oct 2, 2019
