No Longer Priority

In a discussion at Chevron Indonesia building, in Jakarta, in mid-May 2017, Energy Observer from Reforminer Institute Pri Agung Rakhmanto voiced his assessment of the direction of government policy on the oil and gas business. Agung believes Jokowi-JK Government period 2014 to 2019 does not make upstream oil and gas business as the main focus.

"So, the characteristics or direction of the current government, upstream oil and gas is not the priority," he said. Pri Agung mentioned the concept in the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of ESDM Number 37 Year 2017 on Participating Interest [PI] 10 percent in the Oil and Gas Working Area.

In the sense of maximum quantity of 10 percent in IKKS cooperation contracts) which must be offered by the contractor at Regional Owned Enterprise (BUMD) or State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). According to him, if viewed from percepktif investment, the rule is counter productive.

The reason, investors will bear the cost when the region has no funding. However, from the regional side is very good because it is involved in a project in place of his property. "From the investor side, the absence of incentive is obtained, it is counterproductive," said the alumnus of Bandung Institute of Technology.

Based on the records of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, there is a cooperation scheme of BUMD and BUMN related to the implementation of this rule. In BUMD cooperation scheme. The Governor coordinates, prepares and appoints the BUMD beneficiary of PI 10 percent. The next contractor finance in advance the amount of BUMD obligations.

Then the return to the contractor is done annually without interest from the production of the BUMD by ensuring revenue sharing for the BUMD. Furthermore, the scheme of cooperation with SOEs. If the BUMD does not express interest in the project in the area, the contractor is required to offer a 10% PI to the SOE. Then SOE self-financing the amount of liability according to business custom. "PI 10 percent is intended for the region to enjoy the results of oil and gas wealth," said Minister of ESDM Ignasius Jonan some time ago.

Another rule which, according to Pri Agung, indicates the government's inconsistency in the upstream oil and gas business is the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 08 of 2017. This rule regulates share-sharing contracts in the Gross Split scheme. Gross split sharing contract is an agreement in the upstream oil and gas business activities based on the principle of distribution of gross production without operating cost recovery mechanism.

He argues that this scheme does not appeal to investors. In the implementation of the contract for the results of this gross split, the initial split base amount is for oil 57 percent to be part of the country. Then the rest belongs to the contractor. While from the gas side 52 percent became part of the country, while the 48 percent belong to the developer.

All operating costs are the responsibility of the contractor. The government still gets additional taxes. Through the elaboration of the mechanism of the two rules, according to Agung weaken upstream oil and gas industry. He even saw a distrust of the sector.

"There is a view that the upstream oil and gas industry is currently exclusive, luxurious and no longer significant for the state budget, which is coloring policies and regulations."

Based on data of Special Working Unit for Upstream Oil and Gas Operations, investment in the sector has indeed decreased. In 2015 upstream oil and gas investment reached 15.34 billion US dollars. Then, in 2016, dropped dramatically to the figure of 11.586 billion US dollars.

So far in 2017, only reached 1.23 billion US dollars. Minister Jonan confirmed the decline in upstream oil and gas investment due to the declining world oil prices. Currently the amount of Indonesian Crude Price [Indonesian Crude Price / ICP] is at 47.09 US dollars per barrel. With ICP conditions in this range, he argues that it is a big challenge for the government to attract investors.

This is different from what Pri Agung said about the priority scale above. Jonan asserted the government continues to excite upstream oil and gas business. He pointed out how it simplifies licensing in the sector, from 10 in 2015, to six now through Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 29 of 2017. The government is also proactive in seeking partners in overseas.

In early June 2017, Jonan and the team visited China to negotiate. The Indonesian delegation visited the offices of three state-owned "Bamboo Curtain" companies, namely China National Petroleum Corporation [CNPC], China Petrochemical Corporation [Sinopec] and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [CNOOC].

Nevertheless, the government now has a sensational program in the downstream sector. The policy of fuel pricing for one price and the 35 thousand megawatt power plant project to be the directors. The ESDM Ministry commissioned PT Pertamina Persero and PT AKR Corporindo Tbk to generalize Premium and subsidized Premium prices.

Premium is at Rp 6.450 per liter while diesel Rp 5.150 / liter Pertamina targets the construction of dealer agencies in 150 dots until 2019. Pertamina's marketing director Mohammad Iskandar explained that it has built an official dealer or gas station at 16 points. "After this there are 13 more locations will be realized," said Iskandar.The AKR party proposed the spread of fuel prices at 10 locations.

IN INDONESIA

Tidak Lagi Menjadi Prioritas

Dalam sebuah diskusi di gedung Chevron Indonesia, di Jakarta, pada pertengahan Mei 2017, Pengamat Energi dari Reforminer Institute Pri Agung Rakhmanto menyuarakan penilaiannya tentang arah kebijakan pemerintah pada bisnis minyak dan gas bumi. Agung berpendapat Pemerintahan Jokowi-JK periode 2014 hingga 2019 tidak menjadikan bisnis hulu migas sebagai fokus utama.

"Jadi, karakteristik atau arah pemerintahan sekarang, hulu migas bukan Iagi prioritas," katanya. Pri Agung menyinggung konsep dalam Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral ESDM Nomor 37 Tahun 2017 tentang Participating Interest [PI] 10 persen pada Wilayah Kerja Migas. 

Dalam pengertian besaran maksimal 10 persen pada kontrak kerja sama IKKS) yang wajib ditawarkan oleh kontraktor pada Badan Usaha Milik Daerah [BUMD] atau Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN). Menurutnya, jika dilihat dari persepktif investasi, aturan tersebut kontra produktif. 

Pasalnya, investor akan menanggung biaya ketika daerah tidak memiliki pendanaan. Namun, dari sisi daerah sangat baik karena dilibatkan dalam sebuah proyek di tempat miliknya. "Dari sisi investor, tidak adanya insentif yang diperoleh, itu kontraproduktif," ujar alumnus Institut Teknologi Bandung ini.

Berdasarkan catatan Kementerian ESDM, ada skema kerja sama BUMD dan BUMN terkait penerapan aturan ini. Dalam skema kerja sama BUMD. Gubernur mengkoordinir, menyiapkan dan menunjuk BUMD penerima penawaran PI 10 persen. Berikutnya kontraktor membiayai terlebih dahulu besaran kewajiban BUMD. 

Kemudian pengembalian kepada kontraktor dilakukan tiap tahun tanpa bunga dari hasil produksi bagian BUMD dengan tetap menjamin penerimaan bagi hasil untuk BUMD. Selanjutnya skema kerja sama dengan BUMN. Bila BUMD tidak menyatakan minat terhadap proyek di daerah itu, kontraktor wajib menawarkan PI 10 persen kepada BUMN. Kemudian BUMN membiayai secara sendiri besaran kewajiban sesuai kelaziman bisnis. "PI 10 persen ini bertujuan agar daerah dapat menikmati hasil kekayaan migasnya," ujar Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan beberapa waktu lalu.

Aturan lain yang menurut Pri Agung menunjukkan ketidakfokusan pemerintah dalam bisnis hulu migas adalah Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 08 Tahun 2017. Aturan ini mengatur kontrak bagi hasil dalam skema Gross Split. Kontrak bagi hasil gross split adalah suatu perjanjian dalam kegiatan usaha hulu migas berdasarkan prinsip pembagian gross produksi tanpa mekanisme pengembalian biaya operasi. 

la berpendapat skema ini tidak menarik bagi investor. Dalam pelaksanaan kontrak bagi hasil gross split ini, besaran base split awal yakni untuk minyak bumi 57 persen menjadi bagian negara. Kemudian sisanya milik kontraktor. Sementara dari sisi gas 52 persen menjadi bagian negara, sedangkan yang 48 persen milik pengembang. 

Semua biaya operasi menjadi tanggung jawab kontraktor. Pemerintah masih mendapatkan tambahan dari pajak. Melalui penjabaran mekanisme dua aturan tersebut, menurut Agung melemahkan industri hulu migas. la bahkan melihat adanya ketidakpercayaan terhadap sektor tersebut. 

"Ada pandangan bahwa industri hulu migas saat ini eksklusif, mewah dan sudah tidak signifikan lagi untuk APBN. ini yang mewarnai kebijakan dan regulasi." 

Berdasarkan data Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Migas investasi di sektor tersebut memang mengalami penurunan. Pada 2015 angka investasi hulu migas mencapai 15,34 miliar dolar AS. Kemudian, pada 2016, menurun drastis ke angka 11,586 Miliar dolar AS.

Sejauh ini pada 2017, baru mencapai angka 1,23 miliar dolar AS. Menteri Jonan menegaskan penurunan investasi hulu migas lantaran harga minyak dunia yang terus merosot. Saat ini besaran Indonesian Crude Price [harga minyak mentah Indonesia/ICP] berada di angka 47,09 dolar AS per barel. Dengan kondisi ICP berada pada kisaran demikian, menurutnya menjadi tantangan besar bagi pemerintah dalam menarik investor. 

Hal ini berbeda dengan yang dikatakan Pri Agung tentang skala prioritas diatas. Jonan menegaskan pemerintah terus berupaya menggairahkan bisnis hulu migas. Ia mencontohkan bagaimana pihaknya menyederhanakan perizinan di sektor tersebut, dari jumlahnya 10 pada 2015, menjadi enam saat ini lewat Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 29 Tahun 2017. Pemerintah juga proaktif mencari partner kerja sama di luar negeri. 

Pada awal Juni 2017, Jonan dan tim mengunjungi China untuk bernegosiasi. Delegasi lndonesia menyambangi kantor tiga BUMN negeri "Tirai Bambu" yakni China National Petroleum Corporation [CNPC], China Petrochemical Corporation [Sinopec] dan China National Offshore Oil Corporation [CNOOC]. 

Meskipun demikian tidak dimungkiri, pemerintahan saat ini memiliki program sensasional di sektor hilir Kebijakan penerapan BBM satu harga dan proyek pembangkit listrik 35 ribu megawatt menjadi penanda arah itu. Kementerian ESDM menugaskan PT Pertamina Persero dan PT AKR Corporindo Tbk menyamaratakan harga Premium dan Solar bersubsidi.

Premium berada di angka Rp 6.450 per liter, sementara solar Rp 5.150/liter Pertamina menargetkan pembangunan agen penyalur di 150 titik hingga 2019. Direktur pemasaran Pertamina Mohammad Iskandar menerangkan, pihaknya telah membangun agen penyalur resmi atau SPBU di 16 titik. “Setelah ini masih ada 13 lokasi lagi akan direalisasikan," ujar Iskandar. Pihak AKR mengajukan usulan penyebaran BBM satu harga di 10 lokasi.

Republika, Page-16, Monday, June 12, 2017

Behind the Decrease in Upstream Oil and Gas Investment

Entrepreneurs asked the government to review again the Gross Split policy in the national oil and gas project in mid-May. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ignatius Jonan had stated the main cause of the decline of investment in the upstream oil and gas sector in the country. He told The Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Convention and Exhibition forum that it was due to the decline in world oil prices.

Based on the Data of Upstream Oil and Gas Business Executing Working Unit, there has been a drastic reduction in investment figures in the last five years. In 2013, the investment figure reached 20.384 billion US dollars. Next in 2014, about 20.380 billion US dollars. Then, in 2015 was in the range of 15.34 billion US dollars. Continued a year later about 11.58 billion US dollars. So far in 2017 only reached 1.236 billion US dollars.

"If the price of oil rises to 60 or 70 US dollars, maybe the spirit is different," said Jonan, at the JCC Building, in mid-May.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has just announced the price of Indonesia Crude Price (ICP) in May 2017 of 47.09 US dollars per barrel. This figure is decreased when compared to ICP in April, which amounted to 49.56 US dollars. He explained, the average ICP from January to May is approximately 50 US dollars or more precisely 49.90 US dollars.

With oil prices in this range, according to Jonan becomes an extraordinary challenge for the government in attracting investors. He considered, upstream corporation oil and gas increasingly difficult to run its business activities. In fact, management in the sector is very important for the economy of the country. "Exploration is declining, and so we can not manage the price Efficiency for the management of upstream oil and gas industry is very important," said the former Minister of Transportation.

The government, according to Jonan, is trying to excite his business. One of them is by speeding up the permissions. Previously in 2015, a total of 104 licensing activities upstream oil and gas. Then, in 2016 is trimmed to 42 permissions. Currently left to six permits.

The simplification of permits in the upstream oil and gas sector is in the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 29 of 2017 on Licensing on Oil and Gas Business Activities. He is determined to discuss this with all relevant stakeholders. "I will start talking with the relevant ministries to support this more quickly," he said.

Not limited to the simplification of licensing, the government proactively seek cooperation partners. In early June 2017, Jonan and his team visited China offering investments in the upstream oil and gas sector. He visited the offices of three state-owned enterprises, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). "I invite them to invest in Indonesia," he said.

Daniel Wieczynski sees crisis in the upstream oil and gas industry of the country. He said if there is no exploration activities of oil and gas production will decline. Yet if you look at gross domestic product in Asia, Indonesia contributes as much as 45 percent. That means many companies actually want to invest in Indonesia.

But if in fact investor interest declines, it asks policy makers to create a rule that allows developers to enter. That way, he thinks long-term investment will come. Daniel believes the decline in world oil prices is not the cause of the decline of upstream oil and gas investment in Indonesia. He cited how his company continued to expand into neighboring countries during such oil trends.

"If the price of oil is low, it's not a problem because Exxon has a big project in Vietnam and Malaysia, just bought a factory in Papua New Guinea and Singapore." This is a big investment, this is just one member of IPA, "he said.

Nevertheless, Daniel assessed the Indonesian economy still looks positive. This is marked by economic growth reaching 5.01 percent in 2016. He hopes the government to make changes to create a competitive investment climate.

"We want the government to provide a good investment climate, do benchmarking, a policy that allows upstream oil and gas so that long-term investment can be invested here," he said.

Transparent Policy

The Indonesian Employers' Association (Apindo) asked the government to review the Gross Split policy in national oil and gas projects transparently. Chairman of Apindo Hariyadi Sukamdani admitted hearing of complaints from oil and gas businessmen about this agreement. He hopes this policy is not just trial and error because the time to do business continues. He reminded how the oil and gas business as one of the backbone in maintaining energy security. He asked the government to create a policy that affects investors' interest.

"So, there must be a clear statement and we have to tell the government how to attract investors.Is our policy really interesting, I do not see that.Results now, investor response is very low," said Hariyadi asserted.

Energy Observer Pri Agung Rakhmanto said the Gross Split scheme is not attractive to investors. He saw through the policy, the government wants to do business with a contract using the smallest cost. In this rule the government gets a 57 percent split base (excluding taxes). Meanwhile, the contractor gets the rest.

Based on EMR Ministry Data, the base split can be adjusted based on 12 components, divided into two groups. First, 10 variable components, field status, field location (onshore and offshore), reservoir depth, availability of supporting infrastructure, reservoir type and carbondoxide content.

Then the content of Hydrogen Sulfide, petroleum weight, the level of domestic components, and the production stage. Furthermore, two progressive components, namely oil prices and cumulative production.

Gross Split makes operating costs more efficient, as all are borne by contractors. Thus, naturally the contractor will make savings. Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Arcandra Tahar repeatedly stressed, it opened a discussion room for anyone who questioned about this policy.

Arcandra assesses progress will not be seen if all the processes have been assessed failed. The government is ready to conduct an important review of the parties who criticize the data substance is clear and accurate in the discussion.

IN INDONESIA

Dibalik Penurunan Investasi Hulu Migas

Pengusaha meminta pemerintah mereview lagi kebijakan Gross Split dalam proyek migas nasional pada pertengahan Mei lalu. Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Ignasius Jonan sempat menyatakan penyebab utama penurunan investasi di sektor hulu minyak dan gas bumi di Tanah Air. Ia dalam forum The Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Convention and Exhibition mengatakan hal itu akibat merosotnya harga minyak dunia.

Berdasarkan Data Satuan Kerja Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Migas, terjadi penurunan drastis angka investasi dalam lima tahun terakhir. Pada 2013, angka investasi mencapai 20,384 miliar dolar AS. Berikutnya pada 2014, sekitar 20,380 miliar dolar AS. Kemudian, pada 2015 berada di kisaran 15,34 miliar dolar AS. Berlanjut setahun berselang sekitar 11,58 miliar dolar AS. Sejauh ini pada 2017 baru mencapai 1,236 miliar dolar AS. 

"Kalau harga minyak naik hingga 60 atau 70 dolar AS, mungkin semangatnya beda," kata Jonan, di Gedung JCC, pada pertengahan Mei lalu.

Kementerian ESDM baru saja mengumumkan besaran harga minyak mentah Indonesia (Indonesia Crude Price/ ICP) pada Mei 2017 sebesar 47,09 dolar AS per barel. Angka tersebut menurun jika dibandingkan ICP bulan April, yakni sebesar 49,56 dolar AS. Ia menerangkan, rata-rata ICP Januari-Mei kurang lebih 50 dolar AS atau lebih tepatnya 49,90 dolar AS.

Dengan harga minyak di kisaran demikian, menurut Jonan menjadi tantangan luar biasa bagi pemerintah dalam menarik investor. Ia menilai, korporasi hulu migas makin kesusahan menjalankan kegiatan bisnisnya. Padahal, pengelolaan di sektor tersebut sangat penting bagi ekonomi Tanah Air. "Eksplorasi makin turun, dan sebagainya kita tidak bisa mengelola harga. Efisiensi untuk pengelolaan industri hulu migas sangat penting sekali," kata mantan Menteri Perhubungan ini.

Pemerintah menurut Jonan berupaya menggairahkan kegiatan bisnisnya. Salah satunya dengan mempercepat perizinan. Sebelumnya pada 2015, total ada 104 perizinan kegiatan hulu migas. Kemudian, pada 2016 dipangkas menjadi 42 perizinan. Saat ini tersisa menjadi enam izin.

Penyederhanaan izin-izin di sektor hulu migas ini ada di dalam Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 29 Tahun 2017 tentang Perizinan Pada Kegiatan Usaha Migas. Ia bertekad membahas seputar hal ini dengan semua stakeholder terkait. "Saya akan mulai bicara dengan kementerian-kementerian terkait untuk mendukung ini lebih cepat," ujarnya.

Tidak sebatas pada penyederhanaan perizinan, pemerintah proaktif mencari partner kerja sama. Pada awal Juni 2017, Jonan dan tim mengunjungi China menawarkan investasi di sektor hulu migas. Ia menyambangi kantor tiga BUMN negeri Tirai Bambu, yakni China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec), dan China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). "Saya mengundang mereka untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia," ujarnya.

Daniel Wieczynski melihat krisis di industri hulu migas Tanah Air. Ia menyatakan jika tidak ada kegiatan eksplorasi produksi migas akan menurun. Padahal jika melihat pada produk domestik bruto di level Asia, Indonesia menyumbang sebanyak 45 persen. Itu artinya banyak perusahaan sebenarnya ingin berinvestasi di Indonesia.

Namun jika pada faktanya minat investor menurun, ia meminta pembuat kebijakan membuat aturan yang memudahkan pengembang masuk. Dengan cara itu, menurutnya investasi jangka panjang akan datang. Daniel berpendapat merosotnya harga minyak dunia bukan penyebab penurunan investasi hulu migas di Indonesia. Ia mencontohkan bagaimana perusahaannya tetap berekspansi ke negara-negara tetanggai di saat tren minyak seperti itu.

"Kalau harga minyak rendah, itu bukan masalahnya karena Exxon ada proyek besar di Vietnam dan Malaysia, baru saja membeli satu pabrik di Papua Nugini dan Singapura. Ini investasi yg cukup besar. ini baru satu anggota IPA," ujarnya. 

Kendati demikian, Daniel menilai perekonomian Indonesia masih terlihat positif. Hal ini ditandai dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi mencapai 5,01 persen pada 2016. Ia berharap pemerintah melakukan perubahan demi menciptakan iklim investasi yang kompetitif.

"Kami ingin pemerintah berikan iklim investasi yang baik, lakukan benchmarking, kebijakan yang memudahkan hulu migas sehingga investasi jangka panjang dapat ditanamkan di sini," ujarnya.

Kebijakan Transparan

Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo) meminta pemerintah menelaah lagi kebijakan Gross Split dalam proyek migas nasional secara transparan. Ketua Umum Apindo Hariyadi Sukamdani mengaku mendengar keluhan dari pelaku bisnis migas tentang perjanjian ini. Ia berharap kebijakan ini bukan sekadar trial and error karena waktu berbisnis terus berjalan. Ia mengingatkan bagaimana bisnis migas sebagai salah satu tulang punggung dalam menjaga ketahanan energi. Ia meminta pemerintah membuat kebijakan yang berdampak pada ketertarikan investor.

"Jadi, sebetulnya harus ada pernyataan yang jelas dan kita harus sampaikan ke pemerintah bagaimana caranya menarik investor. Apakah kebijakan kita sudah betul-betul menarik, saya tidak melihat seperti itu. Hasilnya sekarang, tanggapan investor sangat rendah," kata Hariyadi menegaskan.

Pengamat Energi Pri Agung Rakhmanto menilai skema Gross Split tidak menarik bagi investor. Ia melihat melalui kebijakan tersebut, pemerintah ingin berbisnis dengan kontrak menggunakan biaya sekecil-kecilnya. Dalam aturan ini pemerintah mendapatkan base split 57 persen (belum termasuk pajak). Sementara, kontraktor memperoleh sisanya. 

Berdasarkan Data Kementerian ESDM, base split dapat disesuaikan berdasarkan 12 komponen, terbagi dalam dua golongan. Pertama, 10 komponen variabel, status lapangan, lokasi lapangan (onshore dan offshore), kedalaman reservoir, ketersediaan infrastruktur pendukung, jenis reservoir dan kandungan karbondoksida.

Kemudian kandungan Hidrogen Sulfida, berat jenis minyak bumi, tingkat komponen dalam negeri, dan tahapan produksi. Selanjutnya dua komponen progresif, yakni harga minyak dan kumulatif produksi.

Gross Split membuat biaya operasi bisa lebih efisien, karena semua ditanggung kontraktor. Dengan demikian, secara alami kontraktor tersebut akan melakukan penghematan. Wakil Menteri ESDM Arcandra Tahar berkali-kali menegaskan, pihaknya membuka ruang diskusi bagi siapa pun yang mempertanyakan seputar kebijakan ini. 

Arcandra menilai progres tidak akan terlihat jika semua proses itu sudah dinilai gagal. Pemerintah siap melakukan review yang penting pihak yang mengkritik memiliki substansi data yang jelas dan akurat dalam pembahasan.

Republika, Page-16, Monday, June 12, 2017

SKK Migas Finds EOR Technology to China

The Upstream Oil and Gas Upstream Business Unit (SKK Migas) unit sees the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology at the Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED) in China. The institute has EOR technology that has proven successful in boosting oil production in two oil and gas fields in China.

On June 7-9, Head of SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) team and the Maritime Coordinating Ministry visited a refinery of Sinopec Group and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in Tengjin, Dalian and Yansan cities In China. The delegation also visited LNG liquefied natural gas landing terminal and Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED).

According to Amien, a special visit to RIPED which is CNPC's research center, to see some of the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) technology that has been successfully implemented in the oil field in China. "We intentionally came to RIPED because we want to know the EOR technology that has been successfully used in the field of Daqing and Karamay Field in Xin Jiang," said Amien in his official statement last weekend.

RIPED has very modern research equipment, even some of the equipment possessed there are only a few pieces in the world. It is estimated that some of the EOR technologies tested by RIPED can be applied to support the EOR program in the old mature oil field in Indonesia in the near future. "Some technologies will be suitable for mature fields in Indonesia," Amien said.

From the visit to the refinery, it is known that the capacity of Tiangjin Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) Refinery reaches 12.5 million tons, while Dalian Petrochemical Corporation (CNPC) 16 million tons and Yansan Petrochemical Company (Sinopec) each 16 million tons. All refineries are integrated with petrochemical plants so that the products are not only various kinds of fuel and LPG, but also produce Polyethylene, HDPE, Polipropylene, Styrene, DPG, and others. The petrochemical products are then sold to consumer goods-producing industries, such as plastic bottles, plastic chairs, car dashboards, car tires, BD printing materials, and more.

The petrochemical unit at Tiangjin, jointly owned by Sinopec and SABIC (Saudi Arabia) with 50% each. The supply of crude oil comes from Saudi Arabia. China's association with Saudi Arabia ensures the security of crude oil supply and is also a factor that makes Saudi Arabia easily invest huge amounts of money when King Salman travels to China.

The group also visited the LNG Landing Terminal at Tengjin (Sinopec) and Dalian (CNPC). From both LNG terminals, natural gas imported from Qatar and Papua New Guinea is channeled to users using gas pipelines and LNG trucks. The two LNG terminals can ensure an ever-increasing supply of natural gas for many areas around Beijing for the purposes of municipal gas, transportation, electricity, industrial, and petrochemical networks.

IN INDONESIAN

SKK Migas Cari Teknologi EOR ke Tiongkok

Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) melihat teknologi pengurasan minyak tahap lanjut (enhanced oil recovery/EOR) di Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED) di Tiongkok. Institusi ini memiliki teknologi EOR yang sudah terbukti berhasil menggenjot produksi minyak dua lapangan migas di Tiongkok.

Pada7-9 Juni lalu, Kepala SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi bersama Tim Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) dan Kementerian Koordinator Maritim melakukan kunjungan ke kilang minyak milik Sinopec Group dan China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) di kota Tengjin, Dalian, dan Yansan di Tiongkok. Rombongan juga mengunjungi terminal pendaratan gas alam cair/LNG dan Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED).

Menurut Amien, khusus kunjungan ke RIPED yang merupakan pusat riset milik CNPC, untnk melihat beberapa teknologi Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) yang telah berhasil diterapkan di lapangan minyak di Tiongkok. “Kami sengaja datang ke RIPED karena ingin tahu teknologi EOR yang telah sukses digunakan di lapangan Daqing dan Lapangan Karamay di Xin Jiang,” ujar Amien dalam keterangan resminya, akhir pekan lalu.

RIPED memiliki peralatan riset sangat modern, bahkan beberapa peralatan yang dimiliki hanya ada beberapa buah di dunia. Diperkirakannya, beberapa teknologi EOR yang diujicoba RIPED dapat diterapkan untuk mendukung program EOR di lapangan minyak tua (mature) di Indonesia dalam waktu dekat. “Beberapa teknologi akan cocok untuk lapangan mature di Indonesia,” kata Amien.

Dari kunjungan ke kilang, diketahui bahwa kapasitas Kilang Tiangjin Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) mencapai 12,5 juta ton, sementara Dalian Petrochemical Corporation (CNPC) 16 juta ton dan Yansan Petrochemical Company (Sinopec) masing-masing 16 juta ton. Seluruh kilang terintegrasi dengan pabrik petrokimia sehingga produknya tidak hanya berbagai macam BBM dan LPG, tetapi juga menghasilkan Polyethylene, HDPE, Polipropylene, Styrene, DPG, dan lainnya. Produk petrokimia tersebut kemudian dijual ke industri penghasil consumer goods, seperti botol plastik, kursi plastik, dashboard mobil, ban mobil, material untuk cetak BD, dan lainnya.

Unit petrokimia di Tiangjin, dimiliki bersama antara Sinopec dan SABIC (Arab Saudi) dengan saham masing-masing sebesar 50%. Suplai minyak mentah berasal dari Arab Saudi. Hubungan kerja sama Tiongkok dengan Arab Saudi seperti itu menjamin keamanan jaminan pasokan minyak mentah dan juga merupakan faktor yang menjadikan Arab Saudi dengan mudah menginvestasikan dana dalam jumlah besar pada waktu Raja Salman berkunjung ke Tiongkok.

Rombongan juga sempat mengunjungi terminal pendaratan LNG di Tengjin (Sinopec) dan Dalian (CNPC). Dari kedua terminal LNG tersebut gas bumi yang diimpor dari Qatar dan Papua Nugini disalurkan ke pengguna dengan menggunakan pipa gas dan truk-truk LNG. Kedua terminal LNG tersebut dapat menjamin pasokan atas permintaan gas bumi yang selalu meningkat untuk banyak wilayah di sekitar Beijing untuk keperluan jaringan gas kota, transportasi, listrik, industri, maupun petrokimia.

Investor Daily, Page-9, Sunday, June 12, 2017

HCML Develops Two Oil and Gas Wells on Raas Island and Sepudi 1

Although up to now the exploration activities at MAC Wells by the Cooperation Contract Contractor (KKKS) of Husky Cnooc Madura Limited (HCML) in the waters of Gili Genting Subdistrict, Sumenep Regency, Madura, are still not exploited and have not produced economical value of oil and gas, but HCML is now Is trying to open two more oil and gas wells around Sepudi Island and Raas Island, Sumenep Regency.

"Please pray and support, Insha Allah, besides hoping that in 2019, Husky Cnooc Madura Limited (HCML) will be able to exploit also we plan to open two more oil and gas wells received from MDA-MDH field," said Ali Aliyudin, Coordinator of Community Developmen HCML , In an open event with the media in Sumenep, Friday night [9/6].

Ali said that the development program of two wells in the waters of Sepudi and Raas Island is similar to oil and gas development activities elsewhere. That is preceded by bringing in a jacket carrier vessel or steel frame to be planted on the seabed as the platform of the platform. "Currently the jacket or steel frame will still be imported from Cilegon," said Ali.

After the pavilion is completed, it will be continued with the pipe pair to the seabed so that the oil and gas search plan can be started, including installation and commissioning test or operational testing of the work.

"All production preparation process is expected to be completed by 2018, so if the gas content is considered economical enough, it is expected that in 2019 can be exploration and exploitation" said Ali.

To smooth it, HCML is also being intensively socialize the plan to the community around the plan of HCML activities in Pulau Sepudi and Pulau Raas. Included with the Navy, because the location is in the Navy training area.

IN INDONESIAN

HCML Kembangkan Dua Sumur Migas di Pulau Raas dan Sepudi 1

Kendati hingga saat ini kegiatan eksplorasi di Sumur MAC oleh Kontraktor Kontrak Kerja Sama (KKKS] Husky Cnooc Madura Limited (HCML) di perairan Kecamatan Gili Genting, Kabupaten Sumenep, Madura, masih belum eksploitasi dan belum menghasilkan nilai ekonomis minyak dan gas, namun HCML kini sedang berupaya akan membuka lagi dua Sumur migas di sekitar perairan Pulau Sepudi dan Pulau Raas, Kabupaten Sumenep.

" Mohon doa dan dukungan, Insya Allah, selain berharap di tahun 2019, Husky Cnooc Madura Limited (HCML) sudah bisa eksploitasi juga kami berencana membuka dua sumur migas lagi yang diterima dari lapangan MDA-MDH," kata Ali Aliyudin, Koordinator Community Developmen HCML, dalam acara buka bersama dgn media di Sumenep, Jumat malam [9/6).

Dikatakan Ali, program pengembangan dua sumur di perairan Pulau Sepudi dan Raas itu juga sama dengan kegiatan pengembangan migas di tempat lain, Yakni didahului dengan mendatangkan kapal pengangkut jacket atau rangka baja yang akan ditanam di dasar laut sebagai fondasi anjungan. " Saat ini jacket atau rangka baja tersebut masih akan didatangkan dari Cilegon," kata Ali.

Setelah anjungan selesai dibangun, maka akan dilanjutkan dengan pasangan pipa ke dasar laut sehingga kemudian rencana pencarian kandungan migas sudah bisa dimulai, termasuk instalasi dan commissioning test atau pengujian operasional pekerjaan.

" Semua proses persiapan produksi diharapkan bisa selesai pada tahun 2018, sehingga apabila kandungan gasnya dinilai cukup ekonomis, maka diharapkan tahun 2019 sudah bisa eksplorasi dan eksploitasi" kata Ali.

Untuk memuluskan itu, HCML juga sedang gencar mensosialisasikan rencana tersebut ke masyarakat sekitar rencana kegiatan HCML di Pulau Sepudi dan Pulau Raas. Termasuk dengan pihak TNI AL, karena lokasi tersebut berada di daerah latihan TNI AL.

Surya, Page-5, Sunday, June 11, 2017

PetroChina to Explore Oil and Gas Downstream Business

PetroChina's oil and gas company said it is exploring the business development of the downstream sector of oil and gas. It is the company's commitment to strengthen its existence which has been operating for fifteen years in Indonesia.

"The head office has given direction to try to discuss with stakeholders in Indonesia about business opportunities not only in upstream but downstream," said Vice President of Partnership and Government Relations of PetroChina Indonesia Budi Setiadi in Jakarta last weekend .

He said the downstream sector businesses being explored include refineries, including petrochemicals, and distribution. Currently PetroChina continues to open opportunities with various parties to develop oil and gas business, including with PT Pertamina. Budi asserted, Petrochina is serious in developing the downstream side of oil and gas business. "Our technology and funds are ready,"

Budi further said that the development of downstream oil and gas business is not caused during the upstream sector. According to him, PetroChina remains committed on the upstream side of oil and gas even though oil prices are still relatively low.

"Although oil prices are still in the range of USD 45 per barrel, we remain committed to contribute to national oil and gas activities.

Budi said, to increase production, PetroChina does not stop looking for new oil and gas reserves to be produced. This year PetroChina is targeting production of 80,000-85,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD). To enlarge the reserves, PetroChina actively explores Jambi's work area and has undertaken 320 km of seismic activities.

"We just found new reserves, Tiung-3 wells and an exploration well in Jambi," he said.

Related to the ending of the Tuban Block contract on February 28, 2018, Budi said that his side had initial discussions with Pertamina, the company's partner in Tuban. He acknowledged, PetroChina still want to cooperate in further development on the block.

The Tuban East Java block is owned by PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) Tuban East Java at 50%, PetroChina International Java, 25% and PT Pertamina Hulu Energi Tuban at 25%. Early this year, the government has decided to provide the management of the Tuban Block to Pertamina with a gross split regime after the expiry of the contract next year.

Beyond that PetroChina also continues to search for potential new oil and gas blocks. Budi asserted that if there is an attractive and economical working area, it will consider acquisition, "This confirms our commitment to continue developing the upstream oil and gas sector in the country.

IN INDONESIAN

PetroChina Jajaki Bisnis Hilir Migas

Perusahaan migas PetroChina menyatakan sedang menjajaki pengembangan bisnis disektor hilir minyak dan gas bumi. Hal itu merupakan komitmen perusahaan dalam memperkuat keberadaannya yang telah lima belas tahun beroperasi di lndonesia.

"Kantor pusat sudah memberikan arahan agar mencoba diskusi dengan pemangku kepentingan di Indonesia mengenai peluang bisnis tidak hanya di hulu (upstream ) tetapi juga di hilir (downstream ),” kata Vice President Kemitraan dan Hubungan Pemerintah PetroChina Indonesia Budi Setiadi di Jakarta, akhir pekan lalu.

Dia mengatakan, bisnis sektor hilir yang dijajaki antara lain kilang, termasuk petrokimia, serta distribusi. Saat ini PetroChina terus membuka peluang dengan berbagai pihak untuk mengembangkan bisnis migas, termasuk dengan PT Pertamina. Budi menegaskan, Petrochina serius dalam upaya pengembangan sisi hilir bisnis migas tersebut. ”Teknologi dan dana kami siap,"

Lebih lanjut Budi mengatakan bahwa pengembangan bisnis hilir migas tersebut bukan disebabkan saat lesunya sektor hulu. Menurut dia, PetroChina tetap berkomitmen di sisi hulu migas meskipun harga minyak masih relatif rendah. 

”Meskipun harga minyak masih di kisaran USD 45 per barel, kami tetap berkomitmen berkontribusi dalam kegiatan migas nasional.

Budi mengatakan, untuk meningkatkan produksi, PetroChina tidak berhenti mencari cadangan migas baru untuk diproduksi. Tahun ini PetroChina menargetkan produksi 80.000-85.000 barel setara minyak perhari (BOEPD). Untuk memperbesar cadangan, PetroChina aktif melakukan eksplorasi di wilayah kerja Jambi dan telah melakukan kegiatan seismik sepanjang 320 km. 

"Kami baru saja menemukan cadangan baru, sumur Tiung-3 serta melakukan tajak sumur eksplorasi di Jambi," tuturnya.

Terkait dengan akan berakhirnya kontrak Blok Tuban pada 28 Februari 2018, Budi mengatakan bahwa pihaknya sudah melakukan pembicaraan awal dengan Pertamina yang menjadi mitra perseroan di Tuban. Dia mengakui, PetroChina tetap ingin bekerja sama dalam pengembangan lebih lanjut di blok tersebut. 

Diketahui, Blok Tuban Jawa Timur dimiliki oleh PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) Tuban East Java sebesar 50%, PetroChina International Java, 25% dan PT Pertamina Hulu Energi Tuban sebesar 25%. Pada awal tahun ini, pemerintah sudah memutuskan untuk memberikan pengelolaan Blok Tuban kepada Pertamina dengan rezim gross split setelah berakhirnya kontrak pada tahun depan. 

Di luar itu PetroChina juga terus mencari blok migas baru yang potensial. Budi menegaskan jika ada wilayah kerja yang menarik dan ekonomis, pihaknya akan mempertimbangkan untuk melakukan akuisisi, ”Ini menegaskan komitmen kami untuk terus mengembangkan sektor hulu migas didalam negeri.

Koran Sindo, Page-8, Monday, June 12, 2017

Gas Supply Increases

Domestic gas supply grew from Jangkrik Field, Muara Bakau Block offshore East Kalimantan. The Cricket Field gas production of around 130 million standard cubic feet per day will soon be increased to 450 million standard cubic feet per day

Jangkrik Field, Muara Bakau

The addition of the Cricket Field operated by Eni Muara Bakau BV became the solution in the middle of the declining gas production from the Mahakam Block, East Kalimantan. "The initial design of this project is producing as much as 450 MMSCFD and can be increased again to 600 MMSCFD.

Its role in domestic gas production is as a substitute for the Mahakam Block whose production has fallen, "said Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ignasius Jonan after visiting the Cricket Field on Sunday (11/6) in Balikpapan, East Kalimantan.

With the production of at least 450 MMSCFD, the Cricket Field gas could add to the national supply of about 7 percent because currently, the national production is 2,100 MMSCFD. "In the sluggish moment of the upstream oil and gas investment climate, the production in Indonesia is increasing," said Jonan.

Managing Director Eni Indonesia Fabrizio Trilli proposed the possibility of building a gas power plant located at a gas source. It can streamline the operating costs of the power plant because it is located close to the gas source. Jonan said it would be discussed further. If possible, the proposal will be incorporated into the Power Supply Business Plan.

Head of Special Unit for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi said one of the buyers of gas from Jangkrik Field is PT Pertamina Gas, a subsidiary of PT Pertamina Gas from Jangkrik Field prioritized for domestic needs including power generation.

The Jangkrik field in Muara Bakau Block is located off the coast of the Kutai basin or about 70 kilometers from the East Kalimantan coastline. The operators of this project are Eni Muara Bakau BV (55 percent share), ENGIE (33.3 percent share), and PT Saka Energi Muara Bakau (11.7 percent share).

The right of Muara Bakau Block operation was obtained by ENI in 2002. Since construction started in late 2014, the first gas production was realized on May 15, 2017, with proven reserves of 1.7 trillion cubic feet (TCF).

Gas production from 10 subsea wells is connected to the floating unit's production facility (FPU). Once processed at the FPU, the gas is flowed through a 79-kilometer pipeline to a ground receiving facility. From the facility, the gas is forwarded to LNG Badak natural gas refinery in Bontang. Furthermore, LNG is supplied for domestic and export markets.

Meanwhile, PT Pertamina and PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk agreed to work together to build a 67-kilometer gas transmission pipeline on the Duri-Dumai line, Riau. This cooperation is expected to be a common start to avoid overlapping gas infrastructure development on both sides.

Pertamina-PGN Pipeline

The cooperation was realized in the signing of the agreement points, Friday (9/6), in Jakarta. Pertamina was represented by Director of Gas Yenni Andayani and from PGN represented by President Director Jobi Triananda. The signing was also witnessed Deputy State Enterprise Energy, Logistics, Regions, and Tourism Edwin Hidayat.

Both parties agreed to form a joint venture in the next stage. The share ownership composition is 60 percent owned by Pertamina and the remaining 40 percent belong to PGN. The gas pipeline is targeted to operate by late 2018 with an investment of approximately US $ 75 million.

IN INDONESIAN

Pasokan Gas Bertambah

Pasokan gas domestik bertambah dari Lapangan Jangkrik, Blok Muara Bakau di lepas pantai Kalimantan Timur. Produksi gas Lapangan Jangkrik sekitar 130 juta standar kaki kubik per hari akan segera ditingkatkan menjadi 450 juta standar kaki kubik per hari

Tambahan dari Lapangan Jangkrik yang dioperasikan Eni Muara Bakau BV menjadi solusi di tengah turunnya produksi gas dari Blok Mahakam, Kalimatan Timur. ”Desain awal proyek ini adalah berproduksi sebanyak 450 MMSCFD dan bisa ditingkatkan lagi menjadi 600 MMSCFD.

Perannya terhadap produksi gas dalam negeri adalah sebagai pengganti Blok Mahakam yang produksinya sudah turun,” kata Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Ignasius Jonan seusai berkunjung ke Lapangan Jangkrik, Minggu (11/6), di Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur.

Dengan produksi sedikitnya 450 MMSCFD, gas Lapangan Jangkrik bisa menambah pasokan nasional sekitar 7 persen karena saat ini produksi nasional 2,100 MMSCFD. ”Di saat lesunya iklim investasi hulu migas, ternyata produksi di Indonesia bertambah,” ujar Jonan.

Managing Director Eni Indonesia Fabrizio Trilli mengusulkan kemungkinan dibangun pembangkit listrik tenaga gas yang berlokasi di sumber gas. Hal itu dapat mengefisienkan biaya operasi pembangkit listrik karena letaknya berdekatan dengan sumber gas. Jonan menyebut hal itu akan dibicarakan lebih lanjut. Bila memungkinkan, usulan tersebut akan dimasukkan ke dalam Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik.

Kepala Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi mengatakan, salah satu pembeli gas dari Lapangan Jangkrik adalah PT Pertamina Gas, anak usaha PT Pertamina Gas dari Lapangan Jangkrik diprioritaskan untuk kebutuhan dalam negeri termasuk pembangkit listrik.

Lapangan Jangkrik di Blok Muara Bakau terletak di lepas pantai cekungan Kutai atau sekitar 70 kilometer dari garis pantai Kalimantan Timur. Operator proyek ini adalah Eni Muara Bakau BV (55 persen saham), ENGIE (33,3 persen saham), dan PT Saka Energi Muara Bakau (11,7 persen saham).

Hak operasi Blok Muara Bakau diperoleh ENI pada 2002. Sejak konstruksi yang dimulai pada akhir 2014, produksi gas pertama terealisasi pada 15 Mei 2017 dengan cadangan terbukti 1,7 triliun kaki kubik (TCF).

Produksi gas dari 10 sumur bawah laut terhubung dengan kapal fasilitas unit produksi terapung (FPU). Setelah diproses di FPU, gas dialirkan melalui pipa sepanjang 79 kilometer menuju fasilitas penerima di darat. Dari fasilitas tersebut gas diteruskan ke kilang gas alam cair/LNG Badak di Bontang. Selanjutnya, LNG dipasok untuk pasar domestik dan ekspor. 

Sementara itu, PT Pertamina dan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk sepakat bekerja sama membangun pipa transmisi gas sepanjang 67 kilometer di jalur Duri-Dumai, Riau. Kerja sama ini diharapkan menjadi awal bersama untuk menghindari tumpang tindih pembangunan infrastruktur gas di kedua pihak.

Pipa Pertamina-PGN

Kerja sama itu diwujudkan dalam bentuk penandatanganan pokok-pokok perjanjian, Jumat (9/6), di Jakarta. Pertamina diwakili Direktur Gas Yenni Andayani dan dari PGN diwakili Direktur Utama Jobi Triananda. Penandatanganan itu turut disaksikan Deputi BUMN Bidang Energi, Logistik, Kawasan, dan Pariwisata Edwin Hidayat. 

Kedua pihak sepakat untuk membentuk perusahaan patungan dalam tahap berikutnya. Adapun komposisi kepemilikan saham adalah 60 persen dimiliki Pertamina dan 40 persen sisanya milik PGN. Pipa gas tersebut ditargetkan dapat beroperasi selambatnya akhir 2018 dengan investasi sekitar 75 juta dollar AS.

Kompas, Page-18, Monday, June 12, 2017

The Price Balance Is Hard To Achieve This Year

The crude oil market is predicted to recover in the near future as the price structure changes that signal to investors that prices are still quite low until next year.

As quoted from Bloomberg, contango-a condition when oil prices are lower than forward prices comes shortly after the Wall Street bank warns investors that the market is predicted to worsen in 2018. The prediction is in line with the growth of US shale oil and rising output From Nigeria and Libya.

Meanwhile, the weakening is seen from the spread of the price difference between Brent crude oil for December 2017 shipments by December 2018, commonly known as Dec-Red-Dec. The price spread fell to minus US $ 1.49 per barrel on Friday (9/6) morning, down from US $ 1 per barrel two weeks ago.

"The Atlantic strand has been flooded with crude from Nigeria and Libya," said Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Market Analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., as quoted by Bloomberg, Friday (9/6).

On the other hand, last week Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Re-activated the Forcados field after an intrusion of 472 days.

The return of Forcados oil brings an additional 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 250,000 bpd of high quality sugur (light sweet) oil to the Atlantic that is already flooded by similar products from the US, North Sea and Africa.

The Dec-Red-Dec spread is currently the weakest since November 30, 2016, when OPEC decided to cut production in an effort to lower oil supplies. Spread traded at $ 1.56 a barrel by the end of February on hopes OPEC, which holds 40% of world output, will successfully bring stock down.

For information, trading volume in December 2017-December 2018 jumped to record highs on Thursday (8/6). Spread Brent looks equivalent to 65 million barrels traded, while the WTI is equivalent to 41 million barrels traded.

This condition, far exceeds the average trading volume over two weeks. Meanwhile, since OPEC and allies agreed to extend the cuts in nine-month production cuts, investment banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, HSBC Holdings Plc., UBS AG and Barclays Plc have warned about a worsening outlook for next year's oil outlook.

The banks agreed to blame the rise in US shale production and concerns about OPEC's recent strategy in cutting production.

PROSPECT 2018

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the average US crude oil production would be more than 10 million barrels per day for the first time in 2018.

"The outlook for 2018 is starting to look troublesome," said Martijn Rats, an oil strategist at Morgan Stanley in London. FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga expressed disappointment that the OPEC meeting on May 25, 2017 will continue to disrupt investor interest in oil so that price increases are limited.

In addition, OPEC oil production volume projections rose last month despite the organization's continued efforts to rebalance the oil market.

IN INDONESIAN

Keseimbangan Harga Masih Sulit Tercapai Tahun Ini

Pasar minyak mentah diprediksi sulit membaik dalam waktu dekat seiring dengan munculnya perubahan struktur harga yang memberi sinyal ke investor bahwa harga masih cukup rendah hingga tahun depan.

Seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, contango-sebuah kondisi ketika harga minyak pengiriman lebih rendah daripada harga ke depan muncul beberapa saat setelah bank di Wall Street memberikan pengingatan kepada investor bahwa pasar diprediksi memburuk pada 2018.  Prediksi tersebut seiring dengan tumbuhnya minyak shale Amerika Serikat dan meningkatnya output dari Nigeria dan Libya.

Adapun, pelemahan tersebut terlihat dari spread perbedaan harga antara minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Desember 2017 dengan Desember 2018, yang biasa dikenal dengan istilah Dec-Red-Dec. Spread harga jatuh hingga minus US$1,49 per barel pada Jumat (9/6) pagi, atau turun dari plus US$1 per barel dua pekan lalu.

“Cekungan Atlantik sudah dibanjiri minyak mentah dari Nigeria dan Libya,” kata Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Market Analyst di Energy Aspects Ltd., seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Jumat (9/6).

Pada sisi lain, pekan lalu Royal Dutch Shell Plc. kembali mengaktifkan lapangan Forcados setelah mengalami gangguan selama 472 hari.

Kembalinya minyak Forcados membawa tambahan 200.000 barel per hari (bph) hingga 250.000 bph minyak dengan kadar sulfur rendah (light sweet) berkualitas tinggi ke Atlantik yang sebenarnya sudah dibanjiri oleh produk serupa dari AS, North Sea dan Afrika.

Adapun, penyebaran Dec-Red-Dec saat ini merupakan yang terlemah sejak 30 November 2016, ketika OPEC memutuskan untuk memangkas produksi dalam upaya menurunkan pasokan minyak. Spread diperdagangkan pada plus US$1,56 per barel pada akhir Februari di tengah harapan OPEC, yang menguasai 40% dari output dunia, akan berhasil membawa stok turun. 

Sebagai informasi, volume perdagangan di Desember 2017-Desember 2018 melonjak ke rekor tertinggi pada Kamis (8/6). Spread Brent terlihat setara dengan 65 juta barel yang diperdagangkan, sedangkan WTI setara dengan 41 juta barel yang diperdagangkan.

Kondisi ini, jauh melebihi rata-rata volume perdagangan lebih dari dua pekan. Sementara itu, sejak OPEC dan sekutu sepakat untuk memperpanjang durasi pemotongan produksi selama sembilan bulan, bank investasi termasuk JP Morgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley, HSBC Holdings Plc., UBS AG dan Barclays Plc telah memperingatkan tentang prospek memburuk untuk prospek minyak tahun depan.

Bank-bank sepakat menyalahkan naiknya produksi shale AS dan kekhawatiran tentang strategi terakhir OPEC dalam melakukan pemangkasan produksi. 

PROSPEK 2018

Badan Informasi Administrasi Energy AS (Energy Information Administration/EIA) mengungkapkan rata-rata produksi minyak mentah AS akan lebih dari 10 juta barel per hari untuk pertama kalinya pada 2018.

"Prospek untuk 2018 mulai terlihat merepotkan," kata Martijn Rats, ahli strategi minyak di Morgan Stanley di London. Research Analyst FXTM Lukman Otunuga menyampaikan kekecewaan bahwa rapat OPEC pada 25 Mei 2017 akan terus mengganggu ketertarikan investor terhadap minyak sehingga kenaikan harga terbatas.

Selain itu ada proyeksi volume produksi minyak OPEC pada bulan lalu meningkat walaupun organisasi terus menyuarakan upaya menyeimbangkan pasar minyak.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, June 12, 2017