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Pandemic Effects Of The Upper Oil and Gas Load

 


The national oil and gas industry is not yet optimally producing significant results in the first quarter of 2021. The realization of ready-to-sell production is still below the target.

Blogger Agus Purnomo in SKK Migas

Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) Dwi Soetjipto said the realization of ready-to-sell production or oil and gas lifting during the first quarter of 2021 was 1,665.25 Mboepd or 97.3% of this year's APBN target of 1,711.78 Mboepd.

In detail, the realization of oil lifting in the first quarter of 2021 was recorded at 676,200 barrels per day (BOPD), or only 96% of this year's APBN target of 705,000 BOPD. Likewise, the realization of natural gas lifting in the first quarter of 2021 was 5,539 MMScfd, or 98.2% of the APBN target of 5,638 MMscfd.

“From the oil side, the entry point at the end of 2020 is very low. At that time it was 699 MBOPD and because there was a decrease in investment, the level of production was not appropriate. That is one of the factors affecting the performance that was not achieved in the first quarter of 2021, "he said.


Dwi added that oil and condensate production missed plans in several fields. For example in the Banyu Urip field by Exxon Mobil Cepu Ltd. (EMCL) which experienced an increase in water cut and also in the Sukowati Tuban field in East Java by PT Pertamina EP. Dwi said Exxon Mobil Cepu (EMCL) and Pertamina EP contributed to the shortfall in the national lifting target of 10,000 bopd each.

In addition, there has been a decline in the contribution of drilling several wells, namely Pertamina Hulu East Kalimantan and Minarak Brantas Gas. This condition was exacerbated by the unplanned shutdown in the first quarter of 2021 at Train-1 and Train 2 at BP Berau, CPGL Suban Plant, and at BGP Petrochina Jabung.


"We are trying to calculate, the year-end outlook will not reach 705,000 bopd, but we are trying to make a strategy for no decline in 2021. We can get closer as possible," Dwi said.

Meanwhile, the failure to achieve the realization of natural gas lifting was also partly due to the inability to achieve Pertamina EP production. In addition, there are differences in assumptions related to the completion of the Tangguh Train-3 project.

Dwi said that the Tangguh Train-3 project is assumed to be completed at the beginning of this year under these assumptions. But in reality, the project is declared to be shifted until the end of 2021 and there is a possibility that it will be completed next year.

Meanwhile, the organizational reshuffle that has taken place within the PT Pertamina (Persero) group is considered to be one of the causes for the low-performance achievement of this state-owned company in the upstream oil and gas sector. According to Dwi, this is a natural fit when there is an overhaul of the organizational structure. The reason is that the investment has not been able to take place smoothly.

“Subholding is a cause and a process. That usually happens, but Pertamina has carried out harmonization, "he said.

Based on SKK Migas data, in the first quarter of 2021, the Pertamina group cooperation contract contractors (KKKS) that did not meet the APBN oil lifting target included Pertamina EP which only reached 98.8% of the target, Pertamina Hulu Energi Oses 89% of the target, and Pertamina Hulu East Kalimantan 83.6%. Meanwhile, for the realization of natural gas lifting, only Pertamina EP did not reach the target of the Pertamina group with a realization of 99.8% of the target.

Dwi said SKK Migas has communicated directly with both the parent and the upstream sub-holding Pertamina regarding the investment process in the upstream oil and gas sector. SKK Migas has asked the state-owned company to speed up its investment process.

"In the last meeting, it has been announced that starting this month, the issue of waiting for FID is no longer allowed and it has been implemented. Pertamina has determined and raised the investment limit that can be made in the subsidiary, "he explained. Pertamina has stated that it is ready to increase its investment to increase operational performance by up to 20% this year.

Pertamina's Senior Vice President for Corporate Communications & Investor Relations Agus Suprijanto said that to achieve this target, Pertamina has set a Capital Expenditure / Capex budget of US $ 10.7 billion in 2021, a drastic increase from last year's CAPEX realization prognosis of US $ 4.7 billion.

Agus explained that from the total CAPEX, as much as 46% will be allocated for upstream oil and gas activities as an effort to ensure an increase in production and oil and gas reserves. The addition of oil and gas reserves is targeted to reach 696 MMboe or nearly four times the target of adding reserves last year.

Meanwhile, 36% of the CAPEX will be allocated to continue the development of refineries and petrochemicals, while the remaining 18% will be used for other business activities, including continuing the development of new and renewable energy.

"The budget shows Pertamina's high optimism to continue to grow and rise amid the Covid-19 pandemic by continuing the projects or business development that had been going on since the previous year and at the same time creating new initiative programs," said Agus.

OLD FIELD

Reforminer Institute founder Pri Agung Rakhmanto argues that lifting is difficult to reach the target because KKKS still continues to rely on old fields, leading to a downward trend.

According to him, the characteristics of the field in addition to the cost per barrel tend to increase and are difficult to predict technically in terms of production operations.

"This is the main technical reason why lifting often does not reach the target. From year to year, we will always struggle with this problem when talking about lifting achievements with the existing fields, "he said.

In connection with the low production of the Pertamina group, Pri Agung assessed that the main cause was not from overhauling the organizational structure through the formation of sub-holding.

"In my opinion, it has nothing to do with the holding sub-holding issue. Lifting is more on short-term managerial issues and operational technical matters, ”he explained.

Executive Director of the National Oil and Gas Companies Association (Aspermigas) Moshe Rizal said that almost all fields in Indonesia have reached their peak production period. So, it is natural for lifting to fall.

Therefore, it needs interventions such as the development of new fields or exploration. In addition, an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) program can be carried out for fields that have entered the secondary or tertiary production phase.

"The problem is that most fields have not prepared the EOR program from an early age so that the development of the EOR program is very expensive and often no longer goes into the field economy," he said.

He added that the low realization of national lifting was also caused by the attitude of investors who are still waiting for the situation to handle Covid-19. Even though the oil price has been very stable above $ 60 per barrel, the situation is still full of uncertainty.

"Investors will focus their investment in areas with lower risk, for example, fields that are already producing and still reduce exploration first," he explained.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-4, Tuesday, April 27, 2021

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