Crude oil prices in world trade have the potential to rise along with rising demand for these commodities from China.
China is a consumer of crude oil that contributes to the global outlook and supports the smooth agreement of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which seeks to push prices by reducing production by producing countries.
At the close of trading on Friday (8/12), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices rose 0.67 points or 1.18% to US $ 57.36 per barrel on the New York Merchantile Exchange. Brent oil also gained 1.20 points, or 1.93 percent, to $ 63.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Future Europe exchange.
Quoted by Bloomberg, crude oil prices have grown higher than previously thought. the article. demand from China is high enough to indicate stronger demand in the world's second-largest economy.
Data show China's crude oil imports rose to 37 million tonnes per day (bpd) year-to-date. Starting from last year's shipments rose 12% to 386 million tons, while exports of processed oil jumped 85% month on month (mom) to 3.25 million tons.
Crude shipments to the Bamboo Curtain country rebounded from a one-year low close to an all-time high. John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York, said futures traders were warmly discussing a surge in crude oil imports to China last November.
"Clearly there is strong demand from China," Kilduff said.
John Macaluso, an analyst at Tyche Capital Advisor, said the growth in Chinese oil import volume did not come from Saudi Arabia but from Iran, Russia and the United States.
"We are seeing a surge in demand from China," Macaluso said, adding that the growing demand for imports pushed China to surpass the United States as the world's biggest crude oil importer this year.Fitch's BMI Research reveals that China is inevitably a dependent consumer especially related to the need of crude oil through imports, following production declines and some oil fields in the country
Throughout the year, Panda State crude production has declined by 8%. The most significant production depreciation since 2016. Moreover, local governments are reluctant to spend much to explore old oil wells.
Jefferies, a global investment company in the United States, predicted that by 2018 the world's crude oil demand will grow to 1.5 million bpd driven by nearly 10% growth in demand from China.
"In general, demand in the market looks healthier," said Tamas Varga, PVM Oil Associates analyst.
Varga said the threat of workers' strikes from labor unions in Nigeria as Africa's biggest oil exporter by the end of November was also a sentiment affecting global crude prices.
The union announced it would strike back on December 18, 2017, after the threat of mass dismissal of the unionized workers, since the threat of the strike, oil prices could rise nearly 2% to $ 62.20 a barrel on Friday (8/12) ago.
"The occurrence of shalt-covering on the market coincides with the threat of a strike by the Nigerian oil union that has given some support to oil prices," said Abhishek Kumar, Senior Energy Analyst at Interfax Energy Global Gas Analytics in London.
As a result, demand from China accompanied by the strike incident in Nigeria is the basis of policy in an effort to extend production cuts until the end of 2018 by OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries led by Russia.
So far, production cuts have pushed up crude oil prices during the June and October periods with Brent oil gaining about 40%.
"Even if the market does not expect bullish, OPEC and Russia have taken a risk to the downside," said Bjarna Schieldrop, principal commodities analyst at SEB Bank.Shieldrop suspect Brent oil prices will not likely fall below the level of US $ 61.00 per barrel.
Despite growing prices, OPEC remains concerned about shale oil production from the US. The data last week showed that US crude oil production had risen 25,000 bpd to 9.7 million bpd in the first week of December and was the highest production since the 1970s and close to the level of production of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Energy services company General Electric Co Baker Hughes said in a new report that it added two rigs at an oil well last week, bringing the total to 751 rigs, the highest level since September.
Energy services company General Electric Co Baker Hughes said in a new report that it added two rigs at an oil well last week, bringing the total to 751 rigs, the highest level since September.
The addition of the rig helped boost the volume of oil production in the local area, as well as widen the market and maintain the price balance. Tariq Zahir, Financial Manager at New York-based Tyche Capital Advisors LLC, said the increasing number of oil rigs by the end of the year is likely to risk lowering global oil prices in the first quarter of 2018.
IN INDONESIA
lmpor China Naik, Harga Terangkat
Harga minyak mentah di perdagangan dunia berpotensi mengalami kenaikan seiring dengan meningkatnya permintaan komoditas tersebut dari China.
China menjadi konsumen minyak mentah yang berkontribusi terhadap outlook global serta mendukung kelancaran kesepakatan Organzation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), yang berupaya mendorong harga dengan mengurangi produksi oleh negara penghasil.
Pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat (8/12), harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) naik 0,67 poin atau 1,18% menjadi US$ 57,36 per barel di New York Merchantile Exchange. Sementara itu, minyak Brent juga ikut menguat 1,20 poin atau 1,93% menuju US$ 63,40 per barel di ICE Future Europe yang berbasis di London.
Dilansir dari Bloomberg, harga minyak mentah mengalami pertumbuhan Iebih tinggi dari dugaan sebelumnya. pasalnya. permintaan dari China cukup tinggi sehingga mengindikasikan permintaan yang Iebih kuat di negara ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia tersebut.
Data menunjukkan impor minyak mentah China naik ke 37 juta ton per hari (bpd) secara year to-date. Terhitung sejak tahun lalu pengiriman mengalami kenaikan 12% menjadi 386 juta ton, sementara ekspor minyak olahan melonjak 85% month on month (mom) menjadi 3,25 juta ton.
Pengapalan minyak mentah ke Negeri Tirai Bambu itu mengalami rebound dari level terendah satu tahun mendekati level
tertinggi sepanjang masa. John Kilduff, rekanan di Again Capital LLC New York mengatakan bahwa pelaku perdagangan berjangka sedang hangat membahas soal lonjakan impor minyak mentah ke China periode November lalu.
"Jelas ada permintaan yang kuat dari China,” kata Kilduff.
John Macaluso, analis di Tyche Capital Advisor mengatakan, pertumbuhan volume impor minyak china itu justru tidak berasal dari Arab Saudi, melainkan dari Iran, Rusia, dan Amerika Serikat.
“Kami malah melihat tingkat permintaan yang melonjak dari China," kata Macaluso. Permintaan impor yang bertambah besar itu mendorong China mengungguli Amerika Serikat sebagai pengimpor minyak mentah terbesar di dunia pada tahun ini. Fitch’s BMI Research mengungkapkan bahwa China mau tidak mau menjadi konsumen yang tergantung khususnya terkait kebutuhan minyak mentah melalui
impor, menyusul penurunan produksi dan beberapa ladang minyak di negaranya
Sepanjang tahun, produksi minyak mentah Negeri Panda telah menurun hingga 8%. Penyusutan produksi paling signifikan sejak 2016. Apalagi, pemerintah setempat enggan mengeluarkan biaya banyak untuk mengeksplorasi sumur-sumur minyak tua.
Perusahaan investasi global di AS, Jefferies, meramalkan pada 2018 permintaan minyak mentah dunia tumbuh mencapai 1,5 juta bpd yang didorong oleh hampir 10% pertumbuhan permintaan dari China.
“Secara umum, permintaan di pasar terlihat Iebih sehat," kata Tamas Varga, analis PVM Oil Associates.
Varga mengatakan, adanya ancaman pemogokan pekerja dari perserikatan buruh di Nigeria selaku eksportir minyak terbesar di Afrika pada akhir November lalu, juga menjadi sentimen yang mempengaruhi harga minyak mentah global.
Serikat buruh mengumumkan bakal melakukan aksi mogok kembali pada 18 Desember 2017, setelah ada ancaman pemecatan massal terhadap pada pekerja yang tergabung dalam serikat pekerja tersebut, semenjak ancaman pemogokan itu, harga minyak mampu menguat hampir 2% menjadi US$ 62,20 per barel pada Jumat (8/12) lalu.
“Terjadinya shalt-covering di pasar bersamaan dengan ancaman pemogokan oleh serikat buruh minyak Nigeria yang telah memberikan beberapa dukungan terhadap harga minyak," kata Abhishek Kumar, Senior Energy Analyst di Interfax Energy Global Gas Analytics di London.
Alhasil, permintaan dari China disertai kejadian rencana pemogokan di Nigeria tersebut menjadi landasan kebijakan dalam upaya perpanjangan pemangkasan produksi hingga akhir 2018 oleh OPEC dan negara-negara produsen non-OPEC yang dipimpin Rusia.
Sejauh ini, pemangkasan produksi itu telah mendorong harga minyak terdongkrak selama periode Juni dan Oktober dengan minyak Brent memperoleh peningkatan sekitar 40%.
“Bahkan jika pasar tidak memperkirakan bullish, OPEC dan Rusia telah mengambil risiko ke sisi negatifnya," kata Bjarna Schieldrop, analis komoditas utama di SEB Bank. Schieldrop menduga harga minyak Brent tidak akan mungkin turun ke bawah level US$61,00 per barel.
Di samping pertumbuhan harga yang terus meningkat, OPEC tetap mengkhawatirkan produksi minyak serpih dari AS. Pasalnya, data pekan lalu menunjukkan bahwa produksi minyak mentah AS telah meningkat 25.000 bpd menjadi 9,7 juta bpd pada minggu pertama Desember dan merupakan produksi tertinggi sejak 1970-an serta mendekati tingkat produksi Rusia dan Arab Saudi.
Perusahaan jasa energi General Electric Co Baker Hughes dalam laporan terbarunya mengatakan pihaknya menambahkan dua rig di sumur minyak pada pekan lalu, sehingga jumlah totalnya menjadi 751 rig, tingkat tertinggi sejak September.
Penambahan rig itu ikut mendorong volume produksi minyak di wilayah setempat, sekaligus memperlebar pasar dan menjaga keseimbangan harga. Tariq Zahir, Manajer Keuangan di Tyche Capital Advisors LLC yang berbasis di New York mengatakan jumlah rig minyak yang terus bertambah hingga akhir tahun ini, kemungkinan besar berisiko menurunkan harga minyak global pada kuartal I/2018.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Dec 11, 2017
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