Brent oil prices hit $ 60 a barrel as OPEC and non-OPEC member states extended their production cuts. On Monday's trade (30/10) at 6:30 pm, the price of Brent oil's most active contract in December 2017 rose 0.11 points or 0.18% to US $ 60.55 per barrel. Throughout the year, Brent oil prices rose 6.55%.
Meanwhile, the WTI oil price contract in December 2017 at 18.30 WIB rose 0.02 points or 0.04% to US $ 53.91 per barrel. UBS Group AG analyst Giovanni Staunovo says oil prices are heating up as prospects for an extension of output cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC. Both sides are represented by Saudi Arabia and Russia respectively.
"Compliance with OPEC production cuts and oil demand growth keeps prices heating up on expectations market to balance, "he said as quoted by Bloomberg, Monday (30/10).
Last week, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said it supports the addition of a period of production cuts. In other places, Russian President Vladmir Putin said he would do the same.
The production cuts in question are a new supply-reduction agreement made by 22 countries belonging to OPEC and non-OPEC. The agreement is valid in January 2017-March 2018. According to Staunovo, statements from Saudi and Russian officials raised expectations of a production cuts agreement could be made after March 2018. Therefore, market participants will monitor the OPEC meeting on 30 November 2017.
He added that heating up oil prices also supported geopolitical sentiments that reduced the prospects for supply growth. One of the phenomena highlighted by market participants is the turmoil in the Kurdish region, north of Iraq.
Head of Energy Research Research Barclays Michael Cohen said, in addition to OPEC and non-OPEC sentiment, the market will monitor the volume of supply from the US which is the world's third largest oil producer.
The amount of Uncle Sam's shale oil production is currently 9.5 million bpd and is expected to increase by 800,000-1 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, the volume of US oil exports has also increased to an average of 1.7 million bpd. The volume grew more than threefold compared with the same period in 2016.
"There is now room for exports to increase again, adding to global supply, but export growth tends to be limited," he said.
Asia Trade Point Futures (ATPF) analyst team in research publications wrote, until last week WTI oil prices managed to heat up to the highest level in the last 8 months. The sentiment, the planned extension of the OPEC production trimming period until the end of 2018 and the decline of US oil reserves to 457.34 million barrels. In the near term, the market will monitor US oil inventories in the week ending Friday (27/10) on Wednesday (1/11).
ATPF concludes that WTI oil prices are in a bullish trend. In this week the price is expected to move within the range of US $ 50.71-US $ 55.51 per barrel.
IN INDONESIA
Harga Brent Mencapai US$ 60
Harga minyak Brent mencapai level US$ 60 per barel seiring dengan rencana negara-negara anggota OPEC dan non OPEC memperpanjang periode pemangkasan produksi. Pada perdagangan Senin (30/10) pukul 18.30 WIB, harga minyak Brent kontrak teraktif Desember 2017 naik 0,11 poin atau 0,18% menjadi US$ 60,55 per barel. Sepanjang tahun berjalan, harga minyak Brent naik 6,55%.
Adapun, harga minyak WTI kontrak Desember 2017 pada pukul 18.30 WIB naik 0,02 poin atau 0,04% menjadi US$ 53,91 per barel. Analis UBS Group AG Giovanni Staunovo menuturkan, harga minyak memanas seiring dengan prospek perpanjangan pemangkasan produksi antara OPEC dan non-OPEC. Kedua belah pihak masing-masing diwakili oleh Arab Saudi dan Rusia.
“Kepatuhan pemangkasan produksi OPEC dan pertumbuhan permintaan minyak membuat harga memanas karena ekspektasi pasar menuju keseimbangan,” tuturnya seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Senin (30/10).
Pekan lalu, Putera Mahkota Arab Saudi Mohammed bin Salman menyampaikan pihaknya mendukung penambahan periode pemangkasan produksi. Di tempat Iain, Presiden Rusia Vladmir Putin menuturkan akan melakukan hal serupa.
Pemangkasan produksi yang dimaksud ialah perjanjian pengurangan pasokan baru yang dilakukan oleh 22 negara yang tergabung dalam OPEC dan non-OPEC. Kesepakatan ini berlaku pada Januari 2017-Maret 2018. Menurut Staunovo, pernyataan dari petinggi Arab Saudi dan Rusia menumbuhkan ekspektasi perjanjian pemangkasan produksi dapat dilakukan setelah Maret 2018. Oleh karena itu, pelaku pasar akan memantau rapat OPEC pada 30 November 2017.
Dia menambahkan memanasnya harga minyak juga didukung sentimen geopolitik yang mengurangi prospek bertumbuhnya pasokan. Salah satu fenomena yang menjadi sorotan pelaku pasar ialah gejolak di wilayah Kurdi, di utara Irak.
Head of Energy Market Research Barclays Michael Cohen menuturkan, di samping sentimen OPEC dan non-OPEC, pasar akan memantau volume pasokan dari AS yang merupakan produsen minyak terbesar ketiga di dunia.
Jumlah produksi minyak shale Paman Sam saat ini sebesar 9,5 juta bph dan diperkirakan bertambah 800.000-1 juta bph. Selama 4 pekan terakhir, volume ekspor minyak AS juga meningkat mencapai rata-rata 1,7 juta bph. Volume tersebut tumbuh lebih dari tiga kali lipat dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama pada 2016.
"‘Saat ini ada ruang bagi ekspor untuk kembali meningkat, sehingga menambah pasokan global. Tapi tampaknya, pertumbuhan ekspor cenderung terbatas,” tuturnya.
Tim Analis Asia Trade Point Futures (ATPF) dalam publikasi risetnya menuliskan, sampai pekan lalu harga minyak WTI berhasil memanas ke level tertinggi dalam 8 bulan terakhir. Sentimennya, yakni rencana perpanjangan periode pemangkasan produksi OPEC hingga akhir 2018 dan turunnya cadangan minyak AS menuju 457,34 juta barel. Dalam waktu dekat, pasar akan memantau persediaan minyak AS pada pekan yang berakhir Jumat (27/10) pada Rabu (1/11).
ATPF menyimpulkan harga minyak WTI berada di dalam tren bulish. Dalam sepekan ini harga diperkirakan bergerak di dalam kisaran US$ 50,71-US$ 55,51 per barel.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Tuesday, October 31, 2017
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