Major oil refineries in Texas, United States, returned to normal operation after the storm Harvey crashed on Saturday (26/8). This recovery increases the demand outlook so that it lifts the price of oil. At the close of trade
Friday (1/8), the price of WTI oil in October 2017 contract rose 0.06 points or 0.13% to US $ 47.29 per barrel.
Prices edged up in the past two trades, but are still down 11.97% throughout 2017. Some refineries in the US have closed or slowed operations since Harvey's storm took place on Friday (25/8). These factors suppress the demand for crude oil so that prices fall further.
The peak occurred on Wednesday (30/8), when the price of WTI reached the level of US $ 45.96 per barrel. This is the lowest position since the close of trading on July 21, 2017 at the level of US $ 45.77 per barrel.
Based on Reuters data, a number of major refineries in Texas began normal operations on Saturday (2/9), a week after Harvey storm hit several areas in the US. Exxon, for example, began reopening a crude oil refinery facility with a capacity of 560,500 barrels per day (bpd).
Phillips 66 also continues the operation of Sweeny refinery with a capacity of 247,000 bph. Valero Energy also increased production and evaluated the performance of the refinery at Porth Arthur of 335,000 bph.
However, the largest US oil refinery belonging to Motiva Enterprises LLC in Port Arthur that processes 605,000 barrels per day (bpd) still states shutdown. Total Company still cuts 50% of its processing capacity by 225,000 bpd. According to the Goldman Sachs Group, refined crude oil processing capacity of the US fell 23% or about 4.1 million bpd since Harvey stormed.
The production volume of crude oil decreased by about 1.4 million bpd or equivalent to 15% of total daily mining. Partner Again Capital LLC John Kilduff said, Uncle Sam's crude oil demand increased after Harvey storm subsided. In addition, the US Department of Energy agreed to release 4.5 million barrels of stock to meet raw material demand.
"The government is reacting positively to fix the situation There are signs the refinery is alive again, so it helps easing the jitters of market participants against Harvey storms, "he said as quoted by Bloomberg, Saturday (2/9).
Portfolio manager Manulifem Asset Management LLC Joseph Bozoyan estimates Harvey's storm factor will still affect the oil market in the next few weeks. This sentiment is thought to greatly disrupt the outlook for demand, despite the gradual recovery in progress.
In addition to Harvey's sentiment, supply reductions from a number of major producers raised the fundamentals of the oil market, contributing to heating up prices.
Petro-Logistics estimates the average production of 14 member countries to decline 419,000 bpd compared to the previous month. In June and July of 2017, OPEC production surged to a record high of 32.66 million bpd and 32.87 million bpd. The volume exceeded the target of cutting production tariffs to 32.50 million bpd per month.
Monex Investindo Futures analyst Faisyal said oil prices still tend to be bearish in the short term. The US $ 47.30 area will be the nearest resistance level before it heats to US $ 47.80 per barrel. Should it slip below US $ 4 7, the price will go to the support level of US $ 46.50 per barrel.
IN INDONESIA
Operasi Kilang AS Mulai Pulih
Sejumlah kilang minyak utama di Texas, Amerika Serikat, kembali beroperasi normal setelah bencana badai Harvey menerjang pada Sabtu (26/8). Pemulihan ini meningkatkan prospek permintaan sehingga mengangkat harga minyak. Pada penutupan perdagangan
Jumat (1/8), harga minyak WTI kontrak Oktober 2017 naik 0,06 poin atau 0,13% menuju US$47,29 per barel.
Harga naik tipis dalam dua perdagangan terakhir, tetapi masih turun 11,97% sepanjang 2017. Sebagian perusahaan kilang di AS menutup atau memperlambat pengoperasiannya sejak badai Harvey berlangsung pada Jumat (25/8). Faktor tersebut menekan permintaan minyak mentah sehingga harga semakin tersungkur.
Puncaknya terjadi pada Rabu (30/8), ketika harga WTI mencapai level US$45,96 per barel. lni merupakan posisi terendah sejak penutupan perdagangan 21 Juli 2017 di level US$45,77 per barel.
Berdasarkan data Reuters, sejumlah kilang utama di Texas mulai beroperasi normal pada Sabtu (2/9), seminggu setelah badai Harvey menerjang beberapa wilayah di AS. Exxon, misalnya, mulai membuka kembali fasilitas penyulingan minyak mentah dengan kapasitas sebesar 560.500 barel per hari (bph).
Phillips 66 juga melanjutkan pengoperasian kilang Sweeny berkapasitas 247.000 bph. Adapun Valero Energy turut meningkatkan produksi dan mengevaluasi kinerja kilang di Porth Arthur sejumlah 335,000 bph.
Namun demikian, kilang minyak terbesar di AS milik Motiva Enterprises LLC di Port Arthur yang memproses 605.000 barel perhari (bph) masih menyatakan shutdown. Perusahaan Total pun tetap memangkas 50% operasi dari kapasitas pengolahan sebesar 225 .000 bph. Menurut catatan Goldman Sachs Group, kapasitas penyulingan minyak olahan AS turun 23% atau sekitar 4,1 juta bph sejak badai Harvey menerjang.
Adapun volume produksi minyak mentah berkurang sekitar 1,4 juta bph atau setara dengan 15% total penambangan harian. Partner Again Capital LLC John Kilduff menuturkan, permintaan minyak mentah Paman Sam meningkat setelah badai Harvey mereda. Selain itu, Departemen Energi AS setuju untuk melepas stok sebanyak 4,5 juta barel untuk memenuhi permintaan bahan baku.
"Pemerintah bereaksi positif untuk membenahi keadaan. Ada tanda-tanda kilang sudah hidup kembali, sehingga membantu
meredakan kegelisahan pelaku pasar terhadap badai Harvey," tuturnya seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Sabtu (2/9).
Portofolio manager Manulifem Asset Management LLC Joseph Bozoyan memperkirakan faktor badai Harvey masih akan mempengaruhi pasar minyak dalam beberapa minggu ke depan. Sentimen ini dinilai sangat mengganggu prospek permintaan, kendati pemulihan bertahap sedang berjalan.
Di samping sentimen Harvey, pengurangan pasokan dari sejumlah produsen utama mengangkat fundamental pasar minyak sehingga turut memanaskan harga.
Petro-Logistics memerkirakan rerata produksi 14 negara anggota merosot 419.000 bph dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya. Pada Juni dan Juli 2017, produksi OPEC tercatat melonjak ke level tertinggi sebesar 32,66 juta bph dan 32,87 juta bph. Volume tersebut melampaui target kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi menjadi 32,50 juta bph per bulan.
Analis Monex Investindo Futures Faisyal menuturkan, harga minyak masih cenderung bearish dalam jangka pendek. Area US$47,30 akan menjadi level resistan terdekat sebelum memanas menuju US$ 47,80 per barel. Apabila tergelincir ke bawah US$ 4 7, harga akan menuju level support US$ 46,50 per barel.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Sept 4, 2017
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