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Pertamina Expansion & Energy Security



Energy security is an important issue that is increasingly being discussed in various international forums. One of them at the G20 Summit in Hamburg Germany, beginning this July 2017. In his speech, President Joko Widodo besides conveying the theme of global trade, growth, sustainable development, climate change, also alludes to energy security.

Indonesia is very concerned with this energy security. Some indicators indicate the vulnerability of national energy security. Indonesia Energy Outlook 2016 data released by the National Energy Board shows since 2010-2014, the rate of reserve discovery compared to production or Reserve Replacement Ratio about 50%.

This means that Indonesia produces more oil than to find oil reserves. No major oil reserves have yet been discovered apart from the Banyu-Urip Blok Cepu field.

Whereas oil and gas reserves represent Pertamina's biggest challenge in running a sustainable energy business. Although there is an increase in Pertamina's upstream oil and gas production in the country, it is not yet sufficient to meet independently the national oil and gas needs.

International cooperation is also needed to improve energy security. For Indonesia, this has even been mandated in the General Plan of National Energy (RUEN) which was just established in March 2017. RUEN recommends state-owned oil and gas companies seeking oil and gas blocks overseas to bring their crude oil into the country. This move is commonly referred to as overseas expansion to acquire upstream oil and gas assets in other countries.

RUEN 2017 implicitly refers to Pertamina's role in supporting national energy security. Upstream oil and gas expansion abroad is also in line with Pertamina's vision to be a world class national oil and gas company.

This expansion effort has been started by Pertamina since 2013. Up to 2015, Pertamina has entered into three countries, namely Algeria, Iraq and Malaysia. This amount is still less than Malaysian national oil company (NOC), Petronas. The state oil and gas company has acquired upstream oil and gas assets in 20 countries by 2015.

It should be understood that this expansion process is quite complex. If the calculation of Pertamina's business expansion into one country is taken into account, then Bussiness to Bussiness (B to B) approach is taken with other oil and gas operators. 

     Along with the process, approval or licensing is required with the government of the country which is the destination of expansion, since oil and gas is a strategic sector. In other words, the movement of Pertamina's upstream oil and gas expansion involves actors in other countries. Hence the element of diplomacy becomes very important.

Theoretically, the role of the government to support Pertamina's expansion is closely related to the concept of power to influence other countries. Referring to the theory described by Joseph S. Nye (2004), power is the ability of the state to influence the behavior of other countries to get the desired results.

There are several ways to influence the behavior of other countries. A country can force another country with a threat, a country can encourage other countries with economic aid, or a country may attract and co-opt another country to do what they want.

Power is divided into two, namely Hard Power and Soft Power. Hard Power is concerned with the economic and military power of one country. The military and economic capacity of Indonesia is not as big as China that supports its NOC expansion with economic assistance and infrastructure development assistance to oil and gas producing countries targeted for expansion.

For Indonesia, the Soft Power approach becomes an important strategy to sustain energy diplomacy. According to Joseph S. Nye (2004), the soft power of a country comes from three main things: culture, political values, and foreign policy.

ACTIVE FREE

Indonesia embraces foreign policy freely active in its foreign policy so that Pertamina is relatively free to approach with any country. If you look at the success of Pertamina's expansion into Algeria, Iraq and Malaysia, it can not be separated from soft power factors, for example: the commonality of a Muslim-majority country and a fellow former member of the Asian-African Conference (KAA).

This soft power factor can be an instrument of energy diplomacy support especially in Goverment to Goverment (G to G) level. Seeing the advantages of this soft power, geopolitically Pertamina can continue its expansion into Muslim countries and other developing countries.

Later Indonesia has opened the opportunity for energy cooperation with Iran, United Arab Emirates, and Russia. Pertamina also purchased 24.53% of French private oil and gas company Maurel et Prom in August 2016. The company already produces in Tanzania, Gabon, Nigeria, and explores oil and gas in Canada, Francis, Colombia, Namibia and Myanmar.

Data from Pertamina shows that total oil and gas production from international assets in Algeria, Iraq and Malaysia until the end of 2016 reaches an average of 126,701 Barrel Oil Equivalent per Day (BOEPD) which consists of 88,587 barrels of oil per day and 275 Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day (MMSCFD) for gas.

This figure contributes 19% of Pertamina's total oil and gas production. In accordance with the roadmap to increase Pertamina's oil and gas production up to 2025, it is expected that the production from this international asset can contribute up to 38%.

Pertamina has also prepared with an investment plan worth US $ 112 billion until 2025. This increase in production is quite encouraging although still far from the national oil and gas consumption demand which reached 1.3 million barrels of oil per day. Meanwhile, Pertamina's total oil and gas production in the first semester of 2010 amounted to 640 thousand barrels of oil per day.

If the expansion strategy continues simultaneously with upstream oil and gas upstream, it is expected that Pertamina's oil and gas production will also increase and sustain the national energy security. The expansion initiated by Pertamina should have govemment endorsement from Rl government through relevant institutions and institutions.

Information on business opportunities in the form of tenders for oil and gas management in one country is usually obtained by Pertamina from subscription journal, and other sources. In fact, primary information can also be obtained by diplomats assigned at the Embassy of the Republic of Indonesia (KBRI) in oil and gas producing countries.

The utilization of KBRI networking around the world as a supplier of information on oil and gas business opportunity is a must. Cooperation more closely and the similar vision between Pertamina and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of ESDM, and other stakeholders become the key.

IN INDONESIA

Ekspansi Pertamina & Ketahanan Energi


Ketahanan energi merupakan isu penting yang semakin sering dibahas di berbagai forum internasional. Salah satunya di Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi (KTT) G20 di Hamburg Jerman, awal Juli 2017 ini. Dalam pidatonya, Presiden Joko Widodo selain menyampaikan tema perdagangan global, pertumbuhan, pembangunan berkelanjutan, perubahan iklim, juga menyinggung soal ketahanan energi.

Indonesia memang sangat berkepentingan dengan ketahanan energi ini. Beberapa indikator menunjukkan rentannya ketahanan energi nasional. Data Outlook Energi Indonesia 2016 yang dikeluarkan oleh Dewan Energi Nasional menunjukkan sejak 2010-2014, laju penemuan cadangan dibandingkan dengan produksi atau Reserve Replacement Ratio sekitar 50%. 

Artinya Indonesia lebih banyak memproduksi minyak bumi dibandingkan dengan menemukan cadangan minyak. Belum ada penemuan cadangan minyak besar lagi selain dari lapangan Banyu-Urip Blok Cepu.

Padahal cadangan migas merupakan tantangan terbesar Pertamina dalam menjalankan bisnis energi yang berkelanjutan. Meski terdapat peningkatan dalam produksi hulu migas Pertamina di dalam negeri, tetapi belum cukup untuk memenuhi secara mandiri kebutuhan migas nasional.

Kerja sama internasional pun diperlukan demi meningkatkan ketahanan energi. Untuk Indonesia, hal ini bahkan sudah diamanatkan dalam Rencana Umum Energi Nasional (RUEN) yang baru ditetapkan Maret 2017. RUEN merekomendasikan badan usaha migas milik negara yang mengusahakan blok migas di luar negeri membawa minyak mentahnya ke dalam negeri. Langkah ini biasa disebut sebagai ekspansi ke luar negeri untuk mengakuisisi aset hulu migas di negara lain.

RUEN 2017 tersebut secara implisit merujuk pada peran serta Pertamina dalam menopang ketahanan energi nasional. Ekspansi hulu migas ke luar negeri juga sejalan dengan visi Pertamina yang ingin menjadi perusahaan migas nasional berkelas dunia. 

Upaya ekspansi ini sudah mulai digulirkan oleh Pertamina sejak 2013. Sampai dengan 2015, Pertamina telah masuk ke tiga negara, yaitu Aljazair, Irak, dan Malaysia. Jumlah ini masih lebih sedikit dari National Oil Company (NOC) Malaysia, Petronas. Perusahaan migas negeri jiran ini telah mengakuisisi aset hulu migas di 20 negara pada 2015.

Harus dipahami bahwa proses ekspansi ini cukup kompleks. Jika kalkulasi ekspansi bisnis Pertamina ke satu negara selesai diperhitungkan, maka dilakukanlah pendekatan Bussiness to Bussiness (B to B) dengan operator migas lain. Seiring dengan proses tersebut, dibutuhkan persetujuan atau perizinan dengan pemerintah negara yang menjadi tujuan ekspansi, mengingat migas merupakan sektor strategis. Dengan kata lain, pergerakan ekspansi hulu migas Pertamina melibatkan aktor-aktor di negara Iain. Oleh karena itulah elemen diplomasi menjadi sangat penting.

Secara teoritis peran pemerintah untuk mendukung ekspansi Pertamina erat kaitannya dengan konsep power untuk memengaruhi negara lain. Merujuk pada teori yang diuraikan Joseph S. Nye (2004), power yaitu kemampuan negara memengaruhi perilaku negara lain untuk mendapatkan hasil yang di inginkan.

Terdapat beberapa cara untuk mempengaruhi perilaku negara lain. Suatu negara bisa memaksa negara lain dengan ancaman, suatu negara bisa mendorong negara lain dengan bantuan ekonomi, atau satu negara bisa menarik dan mengkooptasi negara lain untuk melakukan yang mereka inginkan.

Power terbagi menjadi dua, yaitu Hard Power dan Soft Power. Hard Power berkaitan dengan kekuatan ekonomi dan militer satu negara. Kapasitas militer dan ekonomi Indonesia belum sebesar China yang mendukung ekspansi NOC-nya dengan bantuan ekonomi dan bantuan pembangunan infrastruktur ke negara produsen migas yang menjadi target ekspansi.

Bagi Indonesia, pendekatan Soft Power menjadi strategi penting untuk menopang diplomasi energi. Menurut Joseph S. Nye (2004), soft power sebuah negara bersumber pada tiga hal utama: budaya, nilai-nilai politik, dan kebijakan luar negeri.

BEBAS AKTIF

Indonesia menganut politik luar negeri bebas aktif dalam kebijakan luar negerinya sehingga Pertamina relatif leluasa melakukan pendekatan dengan negara manapun. Jika melihat keberhasilan ekspansi Pertamina ke Aljazair, Irak, dan Malaysia, tidak bisa dilepaskan dari faktor-faktor soft power, misalnya: kesamaan sebagai negara yang mayoritas warganya muslim dan sesama negara bekas anggota Konferensi Asia Afrika (KAA).

Faktor soft power ini bisa jadi instrumen pendukung diplomasi energi terutama di level Goverment to Goverment (G to G). Melihat kelebihan soft power ini, secara geopolitik Pertamina bisa meneruskan ekspansinya ke negara-negara muslim dan negara berkembang lainnya.

Belakangan Indonesia sudah membuka peluang kerja sama energi dengan Iran, Uni Emirat Arab, dan Rusia. Pertamina juga membeli 24,53% saham perusahaan migas swasta asal Prancis, Maurel et Prom pada Agustus 2016. Perusahaan ini sudah berproduksi di Tanzania, Gabon, Nigeria, serta melakukan eksplorasi migas di Kanada, Francis, Kolombia, Namibia, dan Myanmar.

Data dari Pertamina menunjukkan total produksi netto migas dari aset internasional di Aljazair, Irak, dan Malaysia hingga akhir 2016 mencapai rata-rata 126.701 Barrel Oil Equivalent per Day (BOEPD) yang terdiri dari 88.587 barel minyak per hari dan 275 Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day (MMSCFD) untuk gas.

Angka ini berkontribusi sebesar 19% dari total produksi migas Pertamina. Sesuai roadmap peningkatan produksi migas Pertamina sampai dengan 2025, diharapkan produksi dari aset internasional ini bisa berkontribusi hingga 38%.

Pertamina pun telah menyiapkan dengan rencana investasi senilai US$ 112 miliar hingga 2025. Peningkatan produksi ini cukup menggembirakan meski masih jauh dari kebutuhan konsumsi migas nasional yang mencapai 1,3 juta barel minyak per hari. Adapun, total produksi migas Pertamina pada semester 1/2016 sebesar 640 ribu barel minyak per hari.

Jika strategi ekspansi berjalan terus simultan dengan perbaikan hulu migas domestik, diharapkan produksi migas Pertamina juga semakin bertambah dan menopang ketahanan energi nasional. Ekspansi yang digulirkan oleh Pertamina sudah seharusnya mendapat govemment endorsement dari pemerintah Rl melalui kemonterian dan lembaga yang relevan.

Informasi adanya peluang bisnis berupa tender pengelolaan migas di satu negara biasanya didapat oleh Pertamina dari jurnal berlangganan, dan sumber-sumber lain. Sebenarnya informasi primer juga bisa didapat oleh diplomat yang ditugaskan di Kedutaan Besar Republik indonesia (KBRI) di negara-negara produsen migas.

Pemanfaatan networking KBRI di seluruh dunia sebagai pemasok informasi peluang bisnis migas merupakan sebuah keharusan. Kerja sama lebih erat lagi dan kesamaan visi antara Pertamina dan Kementerian Luar Negeri, Kementerian ESDM, dan stakeholder lainnya menjadi kunci.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-2, Saturday, July 29, 2017

2 comments:

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