The price of oil still persists in bearish trend due to depressed high production figures. Efforts to cut production by oil-exporting countries have so far not had a significant impact on oil prices. On Friday (7/7), WTI's oil price contract in August 2017 fell 2.83% to US $ 44.23 per barrel compared to the previous day. Last week, oil prices fell 3.93%.
The price of oil is corrected due to the increase in production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released US oil inventory data down 6.3 million barrels, higher than the 2.4 million barrel projection. However, oil production rose 1% to 9.34 million barrels.
While OPEC oil producers posted a two-month rise in exports, Thomson Reuters Oil Research released OPEC oil export data in June rose 450,000 barrels per day to 25.92 million barrels compared to the previous month. "Meaning, OPEC oil production remains high," said Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Asia Trade-point Futures Analyst.
According to Deddy, market participants expect joint commitment between OPEC and other manufacturers, including Russia and the US, to suppress oil production. But that commitment has not yet materialized. Moreover, Russia refused to increase the quota of production restrictions. While Libya and Nigeria continue to increase production.
Deddy's prediction, oil prices until the end of the year ranged from US $ 38-US $ 50 per barrel. Lukman Leong, Research, & Analyst Valbury Asia Futures, explained, US oil demand tends to rise, so the stock looks down. But this condition is only temporary.
Understandably, at the time of OPEC production cuts, global oil reserves remain at high levels. Moreover, OPEC did not increase the quota of oil production cuts. "Only conflict in the Middle East could possibly lift oil prices," Lukman said.
Technically oil prices are rolling below the moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 and MA 200. MACD in negative area. RSI is down at 42 and stochastic is down at level 24. Monday (10/7). He predicted the price weakened between US $ 43.20 and US $ 46.18. A week ahead the price is expected to move in the range of US $ 41.9-US $ 46.9 per barrel.
IN INDONESIA
Harga Minyak Masih Dalam Tren Bearish
Harga minyak masih bertahan dalam tren bearish lantaran tertekan tingginya angka produksi. Upaya pemangkasan produksi oleh negara eksportir minyak, sejauh ini tidak berdampak signifikan pada harga minyak. Jumat (7/7) lalu, harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Agustus 2017 jatuh 2,83% menjadi US$ 44,23 per barel dibanding sehari sebelumnya. Sepekan terakhir, harga minyak turun 3,93%.
Harga minyak terkoreksi gara-gara kenaikan produksi. Energy Information Administration (EIA) merilis data stok minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) turun 6,3 juta barel, ini lebih tinggi daripada proyeksi turun 2,4 juta barel. Tetapi, produksi minyak justru naik 1% menjadi 9,34 juta barel.
Sementara produsen minyak yang tergabung dalam OPEC mencatat kenaikan ekspor dua bulan beruntun, Thomson Reuters Oil Research merilis data ekspor minyak OPEC di Juni naik 450.000 barel per hari menjadi 25,92 juta barel dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. "Artinya, produksi minyak OPEC masih tetap tinggi," kata Deddy Yusuf Siregar, Analis Asia Trade-point Futures.
Menurut Deddy, pelaku pasar berharap komitmen bersama antara OPEC dan produsen lain, termasuk Rusia dan AS, untuk menekan produksi minyak. Tetapi komitmen tersebut belum juga terwujud. Apalagi, Rusia menolak untuk menambah kuota pembatasan produksi. Sementara Libia dan Nigeria terus meningkatkan produksi.
Prediksi Deddy, harga minyak hingga akhir tahun berkisar antara US$ 38-US$ 50 per barel. Lukman Leong, Research, & Analyst Valbury Asia Futures, memaparkan, permintaan minyak AS cenderung naik, sehingga stok terlihat turun. Tetapi kondisi ini hanya sementara.
Maklum, di saat upaya pemangkasan produksi OPEC, cadangan minyak global bertahan di level tinggi. Apalagi, OPEC tidak menambah kuota pemangkasan produksi minyak. “Hanya konflik di Timur Tengah yang mungkin bisa mengangkat harga minyak," ujar Lukman.
Secara teknikal harga minyak bergulir di bawah moving average (MA) 50, MA 100 dan MA 200. MACD di area negatif. RSI turun di level 42 dan stochastic melemah di Level 24. Senin (10/7). Dia memprediksi harga melemah antara US$ 43,20-US$ 46,18. Sepekan ke depan harga diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran US$ 41,9-US$ 46,9 per barel.
Kontan, Page-7, Monday, July 10, 2017
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