Oil production in some producing countries is still rising
Get ready, world oil prices could fall again. The price of black gold continues to weaken due to abundant supply of oil. Oil prices were slightly strengthened yesterday (21/6). At 19.09 GMT, light crude oil futures for August delivery in August 2017 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.21% from the previous day to US $ 43.68 per barrel.
But the previous day, oil prices depressed and closed at US $ 42.23 per barrel. This is the lowest price of oil in the last nine months. Oil prices fell drastically on reports of an increase in oil output in Nigeria and Libya. That is, OPEC oil production rose. The increase from the two countries reached 352,000 barrels per day.
Thus, OPEC production in May 2017 increased 336,000 barrels per day. "The effect is that the market now sees OPEC's efforts to cut production seem artificial," said Lukman Leong, Research & Analyst at Valbury Asia Futures, yesterday. In fact, Nigeria and Libya excluding OPEC members who agreed to cut production of 1.8 million barrels per day.
Research & Analyst Asia Tradepoint Futures Deddy Yusuf Siregar added that oil prices were also pressured by the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, which said US weekly stockpiles rose 2.72 million barrels last week. So, the increase in US oil production has not stopped.
US oil production during May 2017 was up 9.3 million barrels per day or higher than April 2017 which was only 8.5 million barrels per day. "It's hard to expect a change in the second half if the market remains flooded with current supply," Deddy said.
Advanced pruning
Lukman expects oil prices to drop to around $ 35 a barrel by the end of this year. With note, there is no fundamental change in the global market. Under the same assumption, Deddy expects oil prices to range from US $ 30-US $ 35 per barrel by the end of this year.
Vice Chairman of IHS Markit Daniel Yergin rate, if later the price of oil fell to US $ 30 per barrel, it is likely to happen further production cuts from OPEC. The active rigs of crude oil drilling in the US can also be reduced.
Seeing the negative sentiment pressure that exists today, oil prices are still difficult to strengthen. Analysts see that the rise is technically only and does not affect long-term pricing. But if US weekly crude stockpiles are indicated to fall, oil prices could improve. In addition, labor problems overshadowing Nigeria, could make Nigeria's oil production in June 2017 dive again.
On a daily technical front, Deddy analyzes current price oil to move below the moving average (MA) 50, 100 and 200, supporting continued decline. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line with the histogram below 0 also forms a downtrend pattern.
Even so, the 29 level stochastic and relative strength index (RSI) are on the oversold area and could trigger a short-term rebound. Deddy expects today's oil price to fall back and move in the range of US $ 41.40-US $ 44 per barrel. Meanwhile, according to Lukman's calculations, the price of oil a week ahead will move within the range of US $ 41.70 to US $ 44 per barrel.
IN INDONESIA
Harga Minyak Bisa Jatuh ke Bawah US$ 40
Produksi minyak di sejumlah negara produsen masih naik
Siap-siap, harga minyak dunia bisa turun lagi. Harga emas hitam ini terus melemah lantaran pasokan minyak berlimpah. Harga minyak memang sedikit menguat kemarin (21/6). Per pukul 19.09 WIB, harga minyak jenis light crude kontrak pengiriman Agustus 2017 di New York Mercantile Exchange naik 0,21% dibanding hari sebelumnya menjadi US$ 43,68 per barel.
Tapi hari sebelumnya, harga minyak tertekan dan ditutup di US$ 42,23 per barel. Ini harga terendah minyak dalam sembilan bulan terakhir. Harga minyak turun drastis karena adanya laporan kenaikan produksi minyak di Nigeria dan Libia. Artinya, produksi minyak OPEC naik. Kenaikan dari dua negara tersebut mencapai 352.000 barel per hari.
Dus, produksi OPEC di Mei 2017 meningkat 336.000 barel per hari. "Efeknya pasar sekarang melihat usaha OPEC memangkas produksi nampak artifisial," kata Lukman Leong, Research & Analyst Valbury Asia Futures, kemarin. Padahal, Nigeria dan Libia tidak termasuk anggota OPEC yang ikut menyepakati pemangkasan produksi sebesar 1,8 juta barel per hari.
Research & Analyst Asia Tradepoint Futures Deddy Yusuf Siregar menambahkan, harga minyak juga tertekan laporan American Petroleum Institute (API), yang menyebut cadangan mingguan AS naik 2,72 juta barel pekan lalu. Jadi, kenaikan produksi minyak AS belum berhenti.
Produksi minyak AS sepanjang Mei 2017 tercatat naik 9,3 juta barel per hari atau lebih tinggi dibanding April 2017 yang hanya 8,5 juta barel per hari. "Sulit mengharapkan perubahan di semester dua jika pasar tetap dibanjiri pasokan seperti saat ini,“ kata Deddy.
Pemangkasan lanjutan
Lukman memperkirakan harga minyak berpotensi turun ke kisaran US$ 35 barel per hari di akhir tahun ini. Dengan catatan, tidak ada perubahan fundamental di pasar global. Dengan asumsi yang sama, Deddy memperkirakan harga minyak berkisar di US$ 30-US$ 35 per barel pada akhir tahun ini.
Vice Chairman of IHS Markit Daniel Yergin menilai, jika nantinya harga minyak turun ke US$ 30 per barel, besar kemungkinan akan terjadi pemangkasan produksi lanjutan dari OPEC. Rig aktif pengeboran minyak mentah di AS juga bisa berkurang.
Melihat tekanan sentimen negatif yang ada saat ini, harga minyak masih sulit menguat. Analis melihat kenaikan yang terjadi sifatnya hanya teknikal dan tidak mempengaruhi harga jangka panjang. Tapi jika cadangan minyak mentah mingguan AS terindikasi turun, harga minyak bisa membaik. Selain itu, masalah tenaga kerja yang membayangi Nigeria, bisa membuat produksi minyak Nigeria di Juni 2017 menukik lagi.
Dari sisi teknikal harian, Deddy menganalisa minyak harga saat ini bergerak di bawah moving average (MA) 50, 100 dan 200, mendukung penurunan lanjutan. Garis moving average convergence divergence (MACD) dengan histogram di bawah 0 juga membentuk pola downtrend.
Meski begitu, stochastic level 12 dan relative strength index (RSI) level 29 sudah di area oversold dan bisa memicu rebound jangka pendek. Deddy memperkirakan harga minyak hari ini akan kembali turun dan bergerak di kisaran US$ 41,40-US$ 44 per barel. Sedangkan menurut hitungan Lukman, harga minyak sepekan ke depan akan bergerak dalam rentang US$ 41,70- US$ 44 per barel.
Kontan, Page-14, Thursday, Jun 22, 2017
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