Steer clear of Political Price

Crude Oil

The practitioners and analysts are confident that the crude oil is also a political commodity. In global emerging markets such accord that to distinguish between political and economic price, there are limits on the level of 30 US dollars per barrel.

If the price is below 30 dollars per barrel, almost certainly it is a political price taking into account the average cost of oil production on land and offshore. Then, when suddenly the price of crude oil fell from the range of 120 dollars per barrel in 2014 to below 30 dollars, all convinced that it is the impact of the political imbroglio.

This argument is certainly justified, because at that time, one of the world's oil producers, the United States, the more serious boost production of shale oil. For the production of US shale gas, conventional crude oil producers to boost production so that the stock is abundant and the price drops dramatically. Today, crude oil prices continue to rise and away from the political price.

On Thursday (23/3), the price of WTI crude for delivery in May 2017 recorded 48.32 dollars a barrel, while Brent for delivery in May 2017 recorded 50.94 dollars per barrel.

    In the discussion and exposure to the analyst of PT Samuel Asset Management in Jakarta last week revealed, crude oil production is still rising. Likewise, the demand also increased, although growth slowed.

The question then is whether the price of crude oil will remain and whether the data is entered When paired with the global economic growth, crude oil demand growth turned out to be linear. That is, the growth of its crude needs to follow the trend of economic growth. The perpetrators of the oil sector and analysts believe that in the future, demand will continue to grow. With the increasing price trend away from political price, crude oil prices more economical.

Year price trend is expected to be in the range of 50-60 dollars per barrel, while the next year is in the range of 70 dollars per barrel. In the short term, it was difficult to see oil prices back to around 100 dollars per barrel. The increase in crude oil prices also began to hoist the prices of some commodities, ranging from coal, crude palm oil, until the rubber.

This is certainly good news for Indonesia which still rely on commodities exports it to shore. Improvements in commodity prices will also stimulate the real sector in the producing regions that have been slow due to falling commodity prices. Since the price of oil fell and followed the collapse of commodity prices, commodity-producing economy of many regions do not grow, even some of the minuses.

However, by examining global conditions, the direction of crude oil prices as a locomotive for other commodity prices remains to be seen. Although there are expectations of rising commodity prices, Indonesia still needs to be consistent to encourage downstream industries and manufacturing that is not dependent on the commodity sector.

IN INDONESIAN

Menjauhi Harga Politis

Para praktisi dan analis sangat yakin bahwa minyak mentah juga merupakan komoditas politik. Di pasar global muncul semacam kesepakatan bahwa untuk membedakan mana harga politis dan ekonomi, batasnya ada di level 30 dollar Amerika Serikat per barrel. 

Jika harganya di bawah 30 dollar AS per barrel, hampir pasti itu adalah harga politis dengan mempertimbangkan rata-rata biaya produksi minyak di darat dan di lepas pantai. Maka, ketika tiba-tiba harga minyak mentah jatuh dari kisaran 120 dollar AS per barrel pada 2014 hingga di bawah 30 dollar AS, semua yakin bahwa itu adalah dampak keruwetan politis. 

Argumen ini tentu beralasan, karena ketika itu, salah satu produsen minyak dunia, Amerika Serikat, makin serius menggenjot produksi shale oil. Untuk menekan produksi shale gas AS, produsen minyak mentah konvensional menggenjot produksi sehingga stok melimpah dan harganya turun drastis. Kini, harga minyak mentah terus naik dan menjauhi harga politis. 

Pada Kamis (23/3), harga minyak jenis WTI untuk kontrak pengiriman Mei 2017 tercatat 48,32 dollar AS per barrel, sementara Brent untuk kontrak pengiriman Mei 2017 tercatat 50,94 dollar AS per barrel.

Dalam diskusi dan paparan para analis PT Samuel Aset Manajemen di Jakarta pekan lalu terungkap, produksi minyak mentah masih terus meningkat. Demikian juga dengan permintaan yang juga meningkat walaupun pertumbuhannya melambat. 

Pertanyaannya kemudian, apakah harga minyak mentah itu akan tetap bertahan dan apakah masuk Jika disandingkan dengan data pertumbuhan ekonomi global, pertumbuhan kebutuhan minyak mentah ternyata linear. Artinya, pertumbuhan kebutuhan minyak mentah mengikuti tren pertumbuhan ekonomi. Para pelaku sektor minyak dan para analis yakin bahwa ke depan, permintaan akan tetap tumbuh. Dengan tren harga yang makin menjauhi harga politis, harga minyak mentah dunia makin ekonomis. 

Tahun tren harga diperkirakan akan berada di kisaran 50-60 dollar AS per barrel, sementara tahun depan ada di kisaran 70 dollar AS per barrel. Dalam jangka pendek ini, agak sulit melihat harga minyak kembali ke sekitar 100 dollar AS per barrel. Kenaikan harga minyak mentah juga mulai mengerek harga sejumlah komoditas, mulai dari batubara, minyak kelapa sawit mentah, hingga karet. 

Tentu ini kabar baik untuk Indonesia yang masih saja bertumpu pada komoditas-komoditas itu untuk menopang ekspor. Perbaikan harga komoditas juga akan mendorong sektor riil di daerah-daerah penghasil yang selama ini lesu akibat jatuhnya harga komoditas. Sejak harga minyak jatuh dan diikuti rontoknya harga komoditas, perekonomian banyak daerah penghasil komoditas tidak tumbuh, bahkan beberapa di antaranya minus.

Namun, dengan mencermati kondisi global, arah harga minyak mentah dunia sebagai lokomotif harga komoditas lain tetap perlu dicermati. Walaupun ada harapan harga komoditas beranjak naik, Indonesia tetap perlu konsisten untuk mendorong industri hilir dan manufaktur supaya tidak tergantung pada sektor komoditas.

Kompas, Page-17, Friday, March, 24, 2017