Meski sempat terkoreksi pasca keputusan The Fed menaikkan suku bunga, kini harga minyak mentah mulai naik. Mengutip Bloomberg, Senin (19/12), pukul 14.34 WIB, harga minyak WTI kontrak pengiriman Januari terbang 0,62% jadi US$ 52,22 per barel. Kenaikan ini terjadi setelah harga minyak terkikis 1,15% dalam sepekan.
Research cmd Analyst Monex Investindo Futures Faisyal menyebut, penguatan terjadi karena pasar mulai mengantisipasi pengurangan produksi minyak yang akan dilakukan anggota OPEC dan non OPEC. Secara teknis, pemangkasan baru resmi dimulai per Januari tahun depan. Tapi, sejumlah negara sudah memastikan akan menjalankan pemangkasan. "Kuwait sudah menginformasikan ke pembelinya bahwa tahun depan akan memangkas produksi," ujar Faisyal.
Rusia, melalui Menteri Energi Alexander Novak, juga mengatakan, semua perusahaan minyak Rusia telah sepakat mengurangi produksi hingga 300.000 barel. Tapi penguatan harga diprediksi tidak akan berlangsung lama. Data penggunaan rig minyak di Amerika Serikat (AS) per 16 Desember justru menunjukkan jumlah rig yang berproduksi bertambah 12 menjadi 510 buah.
Artinya, produksi minyak AS berpotensi bertambah menjadi 8,8 juta barel per hari pada Desember ini, yang adalah rekor tertinggi sejak Januari lalu.” Cuma, meski harga turun, pelemahan tidak akan dalam. Harga minyak tertolong pelemahan indeks dollar AS yang turun sekitar 0,23%. "Kalau sudah sampai level seperti ini, kemungkinan pergerakan akan konstan," kata Faisyal Analis Central Capital Futures Wahyu Tribowo Laksono optimistis harga” minyak akan mencapai keseimbangan baru di US$ 60 per barel.
Dengan catatan realisasi pemangkasan produksi berhasil dilakukan. "Itu target yang mudah, bahkan mungkin bisa sampai US$ 70 per barel," terang dia. Permintaan dari China juga diprediksi meningkat. Kebutuhan minyak Negeri Tirai Bambu terkerek menjadi 1,3 juta barel per hari. Berbeda, Faisyal menganalisa harga minyak tahun depan tidak akan naik drastis. Batu sandungan terbesar datang dari rencana The Fed menaikkan suku bunga sebanyak tiga kali tahun depan.
Alhasil, harga minyak hanya akan sekitar US$ 60 per barel. Dari sisi teknikal harga minyak WTI saat ini telah berada difatas MA 50, MA 100 dan MA 200. Indikator moving con vergence divergence (MACD) berada di level 0,288 yang menunjukkan potensi bulish. Tapi indikator stochastic dan RSI sudah berada di area jenuh beli, sehingga ada kemungkinan akan terjadi koreksi untuk jangka pendek. Faisyal memprediksi harga minyak hari ini (20/12) berpotensi naik terbatas dan bergerak antara US$ 51,65-US$ 54,50 per barel. Sedang menurut hitungan Wahyu, dalam sepekan harga minyak akan bergerak di kisaran US$ 47-US$ 57 per barel.
IN ENGLISH
Prices Up Ahead of Production Decline
Although time was corrected after the Fed's decision to raise interest rates, now the price of crude oil began to rise. According to Bloomberg, Monday (19/12), at 14:34 pm, the price of WTI oil contract for January delivery fly by 0.62% to US $ 52.22 per barrel. This increase came after oil prices eroded 1.15% for the week.
Cmd Research Analyst Monex Investindo Futures Faisyal call, strengthening occurs as the market began to anticipate a reduction in oil production that will be performed OPEC and non-OPEC members. Technically, the new cuts officially started as of January next year. However, several countries have confirmed that it will carry out pruning. "Kuwait had informed the purchasers that the next year would cut production," said Faisyal.
Russia, through the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, also said that all Russian oil companies have agreed to reduce production by 300,000 barrels. But the predicted price gains will not last long. Data usage of oil rigs in the United States (US) per December 16 would indicate the number of rigs in production to grow 12 to 510 pieces.
That is, the US has the potential to increase oil production to 8.8 million barrels per day in December, which was the highest level since January. "But, although prices fell, weakening will not be in. Oil prices helped weakening US dollar index is down about 0.23%. "If it were up to this level, it is likely to be constant movement," said Faisyal Central Capital Futures analyst Wahyu Laksono Tribowo optimistic price "of oil will reach a new balance at US $ 60 per barrel.
With a record of successful realization of production cuts. "It was an easy target, and possibly up to US $ 70 per barrel," he explained. Demand from China is also expected to increase. Bamboo Curtain country needs terkerek oil to 1.3 million barrels per day. In contrast, Faisyal analyzing oil prices next year will not rise dramatically. The biggest stumbling block comes from the plan the Fed raised interest rates three times next year.
As a result, oil prices would only be about US $ 60 per barrel. From a technical perspective the current WTI oil price has been difatas MA 50, MA 100 and MA 200 moving con vergence divergence indicator (MACD) is in the 0.288 level which indicates a potential bullish. But the stochastic indicator and the RSI is in the overbought area, so there is likely to be a correction in the short term. Faisyal predict the price of oil today (20/12) limited potential to rise and move between US $ 51.65 and US $ 54.50 per barrel. Medium according to the count of Revelation, in a week the oil price will move in the range of US $ 47-US $ 57 per barrel.
Kontan, Page-7,Tuesday, Dec,20,2016
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