Mission Fuel Import Free

In 2023, six years from now, PT Pertamina is targeting Indonesia-free import of fuel oil. Reference is Pertamina has completed the construction of two new refinery units and increasing the capacity of four old refineries. It's a gigantic mission worth 35 billion US dollars, or around Rp 455 trillion

Consumption of fuel oil (BBM) is estimated to as much as 2 million barrels per day in 2023. At the same time, when the new refinery project and development of the old refinery is completed, Pertamina refinery production capacity will increase to 2 million barrels per day. Currently, Pertamina refinery production capacity of 800,000 barrels per day, or only half of the fuel needs nationwide reached 1.6 million barrels per day.

In a hearing between Commission VII of the House of Representatives and Pertamina, Thursday (23/3), in Jakarta, Pertamina's ability is questionable, especially in terms of financing. Therefore, projects worth nearly Rp 455 trillion is not possible is borne by Pertamina. It could disrupt the company's equity. Pertamina's annual capital spending "only" 5 billion to 6 billion US dollars, or Rp 65 trillion to Rp 78 trillion.

The new refinery in Tuban, East Java, will cost 13.5 billion US dollars or equivalent to Rp 175 trillion. Meanwhile, a new refinery in Bontang, East Kalimantan, will cost $ 9 billion, or around Rp 117 trillion. Equally capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, the Bontang plant is much cheaper because of standing on land owned by Pertamina. Infrastructure has also been supporting the full range available.

Meanwhile, to increase the capacity and complexity of old refineries (refinery master plan development programs / RDMP Program), Pertamina needs $ 3 billion to 4 billion US dollars, or Rp 39 trillion to Rp 52 trillion per unit of the refinery. There are four refineries are included in the program, namely RDMR Balongan refinery in West Java, refinery Dumai in Riau, Cilacap refinery in Central Java, and East Kalimantan Balikpapan refinery.

Indonesia has long been not build a refinery despite fuel demand more and more from year to year. The refinery was built was the last time Balongan, which began operations in 1994. The former Pertamina president director Dwi Soetjipto once said that Indonesia cowed oil mafia. According to the oil mafia, build refineries, besides being very expensive, uneconomical, finally Indonesia relies on imported fuel and therein arises fraud practice known as the oil mafia.

About to build refineries is not just a matter of energy security in the country. Having refinery to process crude oil into gasoline and other derivative products, also cut slits efficiency fuel imports which have been the seizure of the rentier. In the end, Indonesia just simply import crude oil only.

Back to the point, how to keep the fuel import free mission with the new refinery could be realized? So far, only two interested parties involved in the project, namely Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia in the Cilacap refinery RDMP program and Russian national oil company, Rosneft, which became partners Pertamina to build new refineries in Tuban.

Central and local government support was needed to realize the construction of the refinery. This is a vital and strategic projects. At least, ease of licensing and simplification of bureaucracy could be some sort of incentive for Pertamina in completing the project. If necessary the government can be a guarantor when Pertamina needs loans from financial institutions.

The precautionary principle to run the project should also not be overlooked. Do not let the same fate as many infrastructure projects in Indonesia are not neglected and is not finished for years. Nevertheless, of the pleasure is the oil mafia.

IN INDONESIAN

Misi Bebas Impor BBM

Pada 2023 atau enam tahun dari sekarang, PT Pertamina menargetkan Indonesia bebas impor bahan bakar minyak. Acuannya adalah Pertamina telah merampungkan pembangunan dua unit kilang baru dan peningkatan kapasitas empat kilang lama. Ini sebuah misi raksasa senilai 35 miliar dollar AS atau sekitar Rp 455 triliun 

Konsumsi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) nasional diperkirakan sebanyak 2 juta barrel per hari pada 2023. Pada saat yang sama, apabila proyek kilang baru dan pengembangan kilang lama rampung, kapasitas produksi kilang Pertamina akan naik menjadi 2 juta barrel per hari. Saat ini, kapasitas produksi kilang Pertamina 800.000 barrel per hari atau baru setengah dari kebutuhan BBM nasional yang mencapai 1,6 juta barrel per hari.

Dalam rapat dengar pendapat antara Komisi VII DPR dan Pertamina, Kamis (23/3), di Jakarta, kemampuan Pertamina dipertanyakan, terutama dalam hal pembiayaan. Sebab, proyek senilai hampir Rp 455 triliun itu tidak mungkin ditanggung semua oleh Pertamina. Hal itu bisa mengganggu ekuitas perusahaan tersebut. Belanja modal tahunan Pertamina ”hanya” 5 miliar sampai 6 miliar dollar AS atau Rp 65 triliun sampai Rp 78 triliun.

Kilang baru di Tuban, Jawa Timur, membutuhkan biaya 13,5 miliar dollar AS atau setara dengan Rp 175 triliun. Sementara, kilang baru di Bontang, Kalimantan Timur, membutuhkan biaya 9 miliar dollar AS atau sekitar Rp 117 triliun. Sama-sama berkapasitas 300.000 barrel per hari, kilang Bontang jauh lebih murah lantaran berdiri di atas lahan milik Pertamina. lnfrastruktur pendukung lainnya juga sudah lengkap tersedia.

Sementara itu, untuk menambah kapasitas dan kompleksitas kilang lama (refinery development master plan program/RDMP Program), Pertamina membutuhkan 3 miliar dollar AS sampai 4 miliar dollar AS atau Rp 39 triliun sampai Rp 52 triliun per unit kilang. Ada empat kilang yang masuk dalam program RDMR yaitu kilang Balongan di Jawa Barat, kilang Dumai di Riau, kilang Cilacap di Jawa Tengah, dan kilang Balikpapan di Kaltim.

Indonesia memang sudah lama tidak membangun kilang kendati kebutuhan BBM makin banyak dari tahun ke tahun. Kilang yang terakhir kali dibangun adalah Balongan, yakni mulai beroperasi pada 1994. Mantan Direktur Utama Pertamina Dwi Soetjipto pernah berujar bahwa Indonesia ditakut-takuti mafia migas. Menurut para mafia migas, membangun kilang, selain sangat mahal, tidak ekonomis, akhirnya Indonesia bergantung pada impor BBM dan di situlah timbul praktik penyelewengan yang dikenal dengan mafia migas.

Tentang membangun kilang memang bukan hanya urusan ketahanan energi di dalam negeri. Memiliki kilang, untuk mengolah minyak mentah menjadi BBM dan produk turunan lainnya, juga memangkas celah efisiensi impor BBM yang selama ini menjadi rebutan para pemburu rente. Pada akhirnya, Indonesia hanya cukup mengimpor minyak mentah saja.

Kembali pada pokok persoalan, bagaimana agar misi bebas impor BBM dengan kilang baru bisa terwujud? Sejauh ini hanya dua pihak yang berminat terlibat pada proyek itu, yaitu Saudi Aramco, perusahaan migas nasional Arab Saudi dalam program RDMP kilang Cilacap dan perusahaan migas nasional Rusia, Rosneft, yang menjadi mitra Pertamina membangun kilang baru di Tuban. 

Dukungan pemerintah pusat dan daerah mutlak dibutuhkan untuk mewujudkan pembangunan kilang. Ini adalah proyek vital dan strategis. Setidaknya, kemudahan perizinan dan penyederhanaan birokrasi bisa menjadi semacam insentif bagi Pertamina dalam menuntaskan proyek tersebut. Bila perlu pemerintah bisa menjadi penjamin saat Pertamina membutuhkan pinjaman dana dari lembaga pembiayaan.

Prinsip kehati-hatian menjalankan proyek juga tidak boleh diabaikan. Jangan sampai nasibnya sama seperti banyak proyek infrastruktur di Indonesia yang tidak terurus dan tidak tuntas bertahun-tahun lamanya. Meski demikian, tentu yang senang adalah mafia migas.

Kompas, Page-17, Monday, March, 27, 2017

Reset Distribution of Gas

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) will reorganize the distribution of natural gas to be cheaper. Gas distribution will be set primarily in the midstream side. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said Ignatius Jonan, factor distribution, transportation and regasification are the things that make high gas prices and should be adjusted. 

"At Banca, the pipe 5 km. Im later in the harbor all sorts who charge up to approximately gas dariBontang (hu1u, Red) below USD 6 per mmbtu. Cost midstream, transportation, distribution, and regasification roughly well over USD 5'per mmbtu. It should be adjusted, "he said.

Jonan said the decline in gas prices is one of the government's efforts so that the domestic industry can compete. "If energy is essentially not competitive when compared with other countries, then the industry is not competitive. What's worse, later electricity rates continue to rise," he said.

IN INDONESIAN

Atur Ulang Distribusi Gas 

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (Kementerian ESDM) akan mengatur kembali distribusi gas bumi agar harganya lebih murah. Distribusi gas yang akan diatur terutama di sisi midstream. Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Ignasius Jonan menuturkan, faktor distribusi, transportasi, dan regasifikasi merupakan hal-hal yang membuat harga gas tinggi dan harus disesuaikan. 

"Di Banca, pipanya 5 km. Im nanti di pelabuhan macam-macam yang charge sampai kira-kira gasnya dariBontang(hu1u, Red) di bawah USD 6 per mmbtu. Biaya midstream, transportasi, distribusi, dan regasifikasi kira-kira juga lebih dari USD 5‘per mmbtu. Ini harus disesuaikan," ujarnya.

Jonan menyatakan, penurunan harga gas adalah salah satu upaya pemerintah agar industri dalam negeri dapat berkompetisi. "Kalau energi dasarnya tidak kompetitif jika dibandingkan dengan negara lain, nanti industrinya tidak kompetitif. Yang lebih parah, nanti tarif listrik naik terus,” katanya. 

Jawa Pos, Page-6, Monday, March, 27, 2017

Oil Cartel Big Deal

COMMITTEE together energy ministers from OPEC (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil production cuts merekomeridasikan extension for six months. Opec, the cartel of oil-driven Saudi Arabia, and the competitors in Kuwait yesterday met to evaluate global agreement cutting oil supplies.

December last year, eleven members of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of this year. Looks Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam Al Marzouq sandwiched between Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and OPEC secretary general Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo speech in Kuwait yesterday.

IN INDONESIAN

Deal Besar Kartel Minyak

KOMITE bersama para menteri energi dari Organisasi Negara-Negara Pengekspor Minyak Bumi (OPEC) dan non-OPEC merekomeridasikan perpanjangan pemangkasan produksi minyak selama enam bulan. Opec, kartel minyak yang disetir Arab Saudi, dan kompetitornya kemarin bertemu di Kuwait untuk mengevaluasi kesepakatan global pemangkasan pasokan minyak. 

Desember tahun lalu anggota OPEC dan sebelas negara non-OPEC, termasuk Rusia, setuju memangkas produksi hingga 1,8 juta barel per hari dalam semester pertama tahun ini. Tampak Menteri Perminyakan Kuwait Essam Al Marzouq yang diapit Menteri Energi Rusia Alexander Novak dan Sekjen OPEC Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo berpidato di Kuwait kemarin. 

Jawa Pos, Page-6, Monday, March, 27, 2017

PSC Procurement Can Do Yourself

If Using Gross Split

Contract gross revenue share split scheme is expected to make the oil industry more attractive. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ignatius Jonan revealed gross scheme split makes KKKS can do in providing system itself and not regulated by the government.

"So, please, I'm sure will speed up the process" said Jonan in Jakarta last weekend. For example, the scheme cost recovery (fees paid by the government), each supply must obtain permission from SKK Migas. "The term is so, like the procurement of oil tank to ask permission to Mr. Amien (Head SKK Migas), still waiting. Then Mr. Amien her go, wait. In fact, the goods have been proposed PSC. I believe the process is long, "he said.

Benefits of gross split scheme is to encourage all the PSC will receive the most efficient concessions. Jonan asserted, to whose jurisdiction has been exhausted, a new cooperation contract must use the gross split Contract gross split using a mechanism for the results of the initial (base split) that can be adjusted based on the variable components and component progressive. 

    Base oil is split to 57 percent of the country and 43 percent of the PSC. For gas, 52 percent of the country and 48 percent for the PSC. If the field does not reach the economic commercialization, Minister may provide an additional percentage of no more than 5 percent to the PSC.

IN INDONESIAN

KKKS Bisa Lakukan Pengadaan Sendiri

Kontrak bagi hasil dengan skema gross split diharapkan bisa membuat industri migas lebih atraktif. Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Ignasius Jonan mengungkapkan, skema gross split membuat KKKS dapat melakukan sistem pengadaaan sendiri dan tidak diatur pemerintah.

"Jadi, silahkan saja, saya yakin akan mempercepat proses" ujar Jonan di Jakarta akhir pekan lalu. Sebagai contoh, dengan skema cost recovery (biaya ditanggung pemerintah), setiap pengadaan harus mendapat izin dari SKK Migas. ”Istilahnya begini, mau pengadaan tangki oil minta izin kepada Mr. Amien (Kepala SKK Migas), masih menunggu. Lalu Mr. Amien-nya pergi, menunggu. Padahal, barangnya sudah diajukan KKKS. Saya yakin prosesnya lama sekali," katanya.

Manfaat skema gross split adalah mendorong semua KKKS yang akan mendapat konsensi yang paling efisien. Jonan menegaskan, untuk yang wilayah kerjanya sudah habis, kontrak kerja sama yang baru harus menggunakan gross split Kontrak gross split menggunakan mekanisme bagi hasil awal (base split) yang bisa disesuaikan berdasar komponen variabel dan komponen progresif. 

    Base split untuk minyak adalah 57 persen bagian negara dan 43 persen bagian KKKS. Untuk gas, 52 persen bagian negara dan 48 persen untuk KKKS. Jika komersialisasi lapangan tidak mencapai keekonomian, Menteri ESDM dapat memberikan tambahan persentase paling banyak 5 persen kepada KKKS.

Jawa Pos, Page-5, Monday, March, 27, 2017

Testing of Profit and Loss Gross Split Scheme

Gross Split Scheme 

Wood Mackenzie, an international research institute, recently released a report about the latest innovations through the government scheme for gross proceeds or gross split for the upstream oil and gas.

And the report concluded that it was paid with gross profit sharing scheme, investors are increasingly reluctant to invest in Indonesia. Scheme for gross proceeds of the cooperation contract will bear its own costs. In contrast to the profit-sharing scheme cost recovery, the entire oil and gas production costs will be paid by the state.

With the issuance of Decree No. 8/2017, the government offers more flexible results with calculations more objective through incentives in the form of part (split) for government contractors bid start with our government and contractor respectively 57%: 43% for oil projects and 52%: 48% for the gas project.

Part contractor could still grow further adapted to challenges in the field via a variable for the results. In addition, the government also offers dynamic results are determined based on the level of oil prices and the accumulation of production. The government could divide part of the contractor a maximum of 5% if the economic field is still less attractive.

Johan Utama. analysts Wood Mackenzie said that there are some weaknesses scheme split compared to gross profit-sharing contract cost recovery current based on the report. First, the development of gas projects will be increasingly difficult. Because, to get the same economical with the current scheme, the contractor needs to cut costs by 30% for oil projects and 75% for gas projects in order to obtain economies of the same when using the cost recovery scheme.

Second, for the time investors will be waiting whether this policy will last a long time because it is set in the form of Regulation of the Minister of EMR because there is no certainty whether the change in the scheme will be accommodated in the revision of Law No. 22/2001 on Oil and Gas.

Thirdly, the scheme gross split makes Indonesia less appeal now that the fiscal problems become an obstacle to new investment that comes from the enlarged state and the contractor must bear its own costs.

Deputy Minister Anzandra Tahar said, the main purpose of the creation of gross split to cut the length of the process administration in the government that must be passed contractor of the search for oil and gas resources to the production period.

According to him, the time savings contributed in the economic calculations of the project. Currently the time required contractors to produce oil even more long despite increasingly sophisticated technology.

CROP OF BUREAUCRACY

Arcandra realize that this time is more difficult to get oil reserves. However, it is not only due to factors in the field are more difficult, but the process within the government that it makes oil and gas production slowed. In fact, the more sluggish the well or oil and gas field production, the time required to gain increasingly longer.

Governments have a greater part must have been reluctant to accept the risk of reduction in revenue due to the actual length of the process can be suppressed by the government.

Arcandra rate, there is an accelerated process that can be done with a gross split for upstream activities are no longer following corporate governance guidelines (PTK) Special Unit 007 of the Upstream Oil and Gas (SKK Migas). Meanwhile, Minister Ignatius Jonan said the oil and gas industry is actually controlled by the global market game because no one can predict with certainty that global crude oil prices.

Therefore, the efficiency being the only way for oil and gas companies to be able to win the competition in the sector. On the other hand, the government wants a more definite state revenues due to the result on a gross basis without counting cut operating costs. However, President Director of PT Medco Internasional Tbk Enelgi, Hilmi Panigoro said that all policies ultimately boils down to an assessment of whether quite attractive when compared with other countries. Because, all oil and gas companies in the upstream sector under pressure from declining oil prices and no one knows for sure the oil price movements.

Flexibility, infrastructure availability rates of return on capital through fiscal terms offered were quite safe in the volatility of oil prices during the contract runs. Additionally need political stability. Behind all the speculation which is true analysis of gross split, all will be answered after the government opened the bidding new work area in May 2017 and the continuation of the work area will be out of contract. Are large companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total, BP will IKT download queue in the offer being made?

If no interest in investing, there will be no activity to find new oil and gas sources. If there is no new oil and gas sources, there will not be a source of production and there will be no oil and gas are produced.

IN INDONESIAN

Menguji Untung Rugi Skema Gross Split

Wood Mackenzie, sebuah lembaga riset internasional, belum lama ini mengeluarkan laporan terbarunya soal inovasi pemerintah melalui skema bagi hasil kotor atau gross split bagi industri hulu minyak dan gas bumi.

Dan laporan berbayar itu disimpulkan bahwa dengan skema bagi hasil kotor, investor semakin enggan menanamkan modalnya di Indonesia. Skema bagi hasil kotor tersebut, kontraktor kontrak kerja sama akan menanggung biaya sendiri. Berbeda dengan skema bagi hasil cost recovery, seluruh biaya produksi migas akan dibayarkan oleh negara. 

Dengan dikeluarkannya Peraturan Menteri No. 8/2017, pemerintah menawarkan bagi hasil yang lebih fleksibel dengan perhitungan yang lebih objektif melalui insentif berupa bagian (split) bagi kontraktor Pemerintah memulai tawaran dengan bagian pemerintah dan kontraktor masing-masing 57% : 43% untuk proyek minyak dan 52% : 48% untuk proyek gas. 

Bagian kontraktor selanjutnya masih bisa bertambah yang disesuaikan dengan tantangan di lapangan melalui variabel bagi hasil. Selain itu, pemerintah pun menawarkan bagi hasil dinamis yang ditetapkan berdasarkan level harga minyak dan akumulasi produksi. Pemerintah bisa membagi bagian kontraktor maksimum 5% jika keekonomian lapangan masih kurang menarik.

Analis Wood Mackenzie Johan Utama mengatakan bahwa ada beberapa kelemahan skema gross split dibandingkan dengan kontrak bagi hasil cost recovery yang berlaku saat ini berdasarkan laporan itu. Pertama, pengembangan proyek gas akan semakin sulit. Pasalnya, untuk mendapatkan keekonomian yang sama dengan skema yang berlaku saat ini, kontraktor perlu memangkas biaya sebesar 30% untuk proyek minyak dan 75% untuk proyek gas agar bisa memperoleh keekonomian yang sama bila menggunakan skema cost recovery.

Kedua, untuk sementara waktu investor akan menanti apakah kebijakan ini akan bertahan lama karena hanya diatur dalam bentuk Peraturan Menteri ESDM karena belum ada kepastian apakah perubahan skema ini akan diakomodasi dalam revisi Undang-Undang No. 22/2001 tentang Minyak dan Gas Bumi.

Ketiga, skema gross split membuat indonesia semakin tidak memiliki daya tarik karena kini masalah fiskal menjadi penghambat baru berinvestasi yang berasal dari bagian negara membesar dan kontraktor harus menanggung sendiri biaya yang dikeluarkan. 

Wakil Menteri ESDM Anzandra Tahar mengatakan, tujuan utama diciptakannya gross split untuk memangkas lamanya proses administlasi di tubuh pemerintah yang harus dilalui kontraktor dari masa pencarian sumber migas hingga masa produksi.

Menurutnya, penghematan waktu turut memberikan kontribusi dalam perhitungan keekonomian proyek. Saat ini waktu yang diperlukan kontraktor untuk menghasilkan minyak justru semakin lama meskipun teknologi semakin canggih.

PANGKAS BIROKRASI

Arcandra menyadari bahwa saat ini jelas lebih sulit mendapatkan cadangan minyak. Namun, hal itu tidak hanya disebabkan faktor di lapangan yang semakin sulit, tetapi proses di lingkungan pemerintah yang ternyata membuat produksi migas semakin lamban. Padahal, semakin lamban sebuah sumur atau lapangan migas berproduksi, waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk mendapatkan keuntungan kian lama. 

Pemerintah yang memiliki bagian lebih besar pastinya enggan menerima resiko berkurangnya penerimaan negara akibat lamanya proses yang sebenarnya bisa ditekan sendiri oleh pemerintah.

Arcandra menilai, terdapat percepatan proses yang bisa dilakukan dengan gross split karena kegiatan hulu tidak lagi mengikuti pedoman tata kelola (PTK) 007 dari Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas). Sementara itu, Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan mengatakan, industri migas sebenarnya dikendalikan oleh permainan pasar global karena tidak ada satu pun yang bisa meramalkan secara pasti harga minyak mentah dunia.

Oleh karena itu, efisiensi menjadi satu-satunya cara bagi perusahaan migas untuk bisa memenangi persaingan di sektor itu. Di sisi lain, pemerintah menginginkan penerimaan negara yang lebih pasti karena bagi hasil dipotong secara kotor tanpa menghitung biaya operasi. Namun, Presiden Direktur PT Medco Enelgi Internasional Tbk, Hilmi Panigoro mengatakan, semua kebijakan akhirnya bermuara pada satu penilaian apakah cukup menarik bila dibandingkan dengan negara lain. Pasalnya, semua perusahaan migas di sektor hulu tertekan sejak menurunnya harga minyak dan tak ada yang mengetahui pasti gerak harga minyak. 

Fleksibilitas, ketersediaan infrastruktur angka pengembalian modal melalui syarat-syarat fiskal yang ditawarkan yang cukup aman dalam volatilitas harga minyak selama kontrak berjalan. Selain itu butuh stabilitas politik. Di balik semua spekulasi analisis mana yang benar tentang gross split, semua akan terjawab setelah pemerintah membuka penawaran wilayah kerja baru pada Mei 2017 dan kelanjutan wilayah kerja yang akan habis masa kontraknya. Apakah perusahaan besar seperti Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total, BP akan ikt ambil antrean dalam penawaran yang dilakukan?

Bila tidak ada yang minat berinvestasi, tidak akan ada kegiatan untuk mencari sumber migas baru. Bila tidak ada sumber migas baru, tidak akan ada sumber produksi dan tidak akan ada migas yang  dihasilkan.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-30, Monday, March, 27, 2017

PNBP Migas Chance Raised

Rising commodity prices of crude oil up to around US $ 47 per barrel to make the government is optimistic that the results of non-tax revenue or non-tax revenues will also increase to close to the target in the Budget 2017.

In addition to prices creeping up, the increase in production (lifting) of crude oil and the strengthening of the rupiah against the US dollar helped reinforce the non-tax revenues from oil and gas. In Budget 2017, the contribution of non-tax revenues targeted to 14.3% of total revenues and 85.6% of tax revenues, and the remaining 0.1% of the grant.

There is a tendency of our oil and gas revenues will exceed the target in the budget, so that we will later revisions in the state budget, "said Director General of Budget, Ministry of Finance Askolani in Jacana, last weekend.

He admitted that the government not know what the value is definitely on the assumption has not been established. Askolani said it will decide on the final seconds before the state budget proposed changes. In Budget 2017, the government established oil and gas revenues from natural resources around Rp 63.7 trillion, assuming the Indonesian crude oil price (ICP) at US $ 45 per barrel.

However, the price of the main energy source in the world that actually has decreased to 13.8%. Economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Bhima Yudhistira proposed that the government does not need to rush to make revisions for oil demand in the global market is still low. "I suggest better moderate just like the budget target in 2017 [US $ 45 per barrel]."

If the government is not careful, he said that when the price of oil can be turned down and it is feared a huge effect on revenues. Currently the price of crude oil has fallen dramatically in the past week. Trimming China's economic projections and the US oil supply strong influence the decline in global oil prices.

In addition, he saw action the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production in order to hoist the oil prices to be temporary because the US back to producing massive oil.

Data Energy information Administration (EIA) showed the level of US oil production rose 20,000 barrels to the 9.13 million barrels per day (bpd). This figure is the highest level since February 2016. Indef projecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will move in the level of US $ 47 ~ US $ 48 per barrel this week.

SMALL CHANCE

The Indonesian Economist Economic Intelligence (IEI) Sunarsip support the government's move given the trend opportunities in oil prices to go back down to a level below US $ 40 a barrel is very small. Although OPEC has not received a clear commitment of some member states to cut production, OPEC steps he believes will happen this year.

By looking at the sentiment, he believes oil prices could rise to above $ 50 a barrel this year, although the condition is still likely to fluctuate. This spike will provide opportunities increase in non-tax revenues from oil and gas sector.

"I think the government's revised plan is no urgency from the beginning of time putting together a conservative because the target is too low on the other side of economic growth will be higher," he said.

IN INDONESIAN

PNBP Migas Berpeluang Dinaikkan

Kenaikan harga komoditas minyak mentah hingga ke kisaran US$ 47 per barel membuat pemerintah optimistis hasil penerimaan negara bukan pajak atau PNBP akan ikut meningkat hingga mendekati target dalam APBN 2017.

Selain harga yang merangkak naik, kenaikan produksi (lifting) minyak mentah dan menguatnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS turut memperkuat PNBP dari migas. Dalam APBN 2017, kontribusi PNBP ditargetkan 14,3% dari total penerimaan negara dan 85,6% dari penerimaan perpajakan, dan sisanya 0,1% hibah.

Ada tendensi penerimaan migas kita akan melebihi target di APBN, sehingga nanti akan kita revisi di APBN-P,” ujar Dirjen Anggaran Kementerian Keuangan Askolani di Jakana, akhir pekan lalu.

Dia mengakui pemerintah belum tahu berapa nilai pasti karena asumsinya belum ditetapkan. Askolani menuturkan pihaknya akan memutuskan pada detik-detik terakhir sebelum APBN Perubahan diusulkan. Dalam APBN 2017, pemerintah menetapkan penerimaan dari SDA migas sekitar Rp 63,7 triliun dengan asumsi harga minyak mentah Indonesia (ICP) sebesar US$45 per barel.

Namun, harga bahan sumber energi utama di dunia itu sebenarnya mengalami penurunan hingga 13,8%. Ekonom Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Bhima Yudhistira mengusulkan pemerintah tidak perlu terburu-buru untuk melakukan revisi karena permintaan minyak di pasar global masih rendah. “Saya sarankan lebih baik moderat saja seperti target APBN 2017 [US$45 per barel].”

Jika pemerintah tidak hati-hati, dia menuturkan ketika harga minyak dapat berbalik turun dan dikhawatirkan memberi efek besar terhadap penerimaan. Saat ini harga minyak mentah turun drastis pada satu pekan terakhir. Pemangkasan proyeksi ekonomi China dan suplai minyak Amerika Serikat yang kuat turut mempengaruhi penurunan harga minyak global.

Selain itu, dia melihat langkah Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) untuk memangkas produksi demi mengerek harga minyak hanya bersifat temporer karena AS kembali memproduksi minyak besar-besaran.

Data Energy information Administration (EIA) AS menunjukkan tingkat produksi minyak AS naik 20.000 barel menuju 9,13 juta barel per hari (bph). Angka ini merupakan level tertinggi sejak Februari 2016. Indef memproyeksikan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) akan bergerak di level US$47~US$48 per barel pada pekan ini. 

PELUANG KECIL

Ekonom The Indonesia Economic Intelligence (IEI) Sunarsip mendukung langkah pemerintah mengingat tren peluang harga minyak untuk kembali turun ke level di bawah US$ 40 per barel sangat kecil. Meskipun OPEC belum mendapatkan komitmen yang jelas dari beberapa negara anggota untuk pemangkasan produksi, dia yakin langkah OPEC akan terjadi tahun ini.

Dengan melihat sentimen tersebut, dia yakin harga minyak bisa naik hingga di atas US$ 50 per barel pada tahun ini walaupun kondisi saat ini masih cenderung bergejolak. Lonjakan ini akan memberikan peluang kenaikan PNBP dari sektor migas.

“Saya kira rencana pemerintah melakukan revisi memang ada urgensinya dari awal waktu menyusun konservatif karena memasang target terlalu rendah di sisi lain pertumbuhan ekonomi akan lebih tinggi," tegasnya. 

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-4, Monday, March, 27, 2017

Government more relaxed about oil, gas imports

The government is looking to switch gears and focus on creating access to affordable oil and gas for the public by importing the commodities rather than holding onto domestic production to secure state revenue.

   Estimates that the consumption of petroleum will skyrocket have made the government consider boosting its imports if domestic prices prove too high for the public and the industrial sector.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister lgnasius Jonan emphasized that the President Joko Widodo administration was more focused on supporting even economic growth and boosting global competitiveness rather than just generating revenue from oil and gas production.

“What’s most important for the country is to push for even economic growth and also for purchasing power to increase [...] if We have a large purchasing power, our productivity will increase and then We can take advantage of our natural resources as a prime mover of the economy,” he said

On the other hand, if oil and gas production decreases While consumption rises, the government will just import oil and gas to meet domestic needs. “That’s the basic gist of it,” he added casually. The government’s more relaxed attitude is due to the fact that the oil and gas sector is no longer a primary state revenue maker, with consistently low global crude oil prices and depleting oil reserves.

Last year, the government recorded Rp 262.4 trillion (US$ 19.69 billion) in total non-tax revenue, Rp 44.9 trillion of which came from the oil and gas sector. The sector’s contribution missed the government’s initial target of Rp 68.7 trillion in non-tax revenue.

Indonesia has been a net importer of oil for several years due to falling production, aging wells and a lacks of new discoveries with low interest on the part of business players to conduct exploration activities. The oil and gas sector has long been burdened as well by cost recovery a reimbursement scheme for exploration and exploitation activities conducted by contractors.

The latest data of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) shows that oil and gas imports experienced a 10.61 percent year-on year (yoy) growth in value to $2.43 billion in February. Petroleum products made up the bulk of oil and gas imports with more than 60 percent, followed closely by crude oil with 30 percent.

To compensate for decreasing production and revenue, the government has made several efforts to improve the oil and gas sector’s investment climate. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry issued the new gross-split sliding scale to slowly replace cost recovery, which supposedly gives contractors much more freedom over their activities, but may also cause them to rein in their expenses.

The government is also in the midst of revising Government Regulation No. 79/2010 on cost recovery and tax treatment for firms working in the upstream oil and gas sector. At the same time, it has to tackle increasing consumption, while also compensating contractors for their expensive activities.

Domestic demand for oil in the country has been forecast to reach anywhere between 1.8 million and 2.29 million barrels of oil per clay (bopd) by 2025. Finance Ministry Budgeting Director General Askolani said Indonesia might be better off following in the footsteps of other countries, such as the United States and China, which preserved their oil reserves while oil prices were low.

“Our next challenge is whether to save any new oil reserves that we find and leave them for future generations. If import prices remain low, why do we have to go all out on exploration?” he said. The National Energy Board (DEN) estimates that oil and gas imports will be three times the current demand by 2025 and six times by 2050, Meanwhile, Satya W. Yudha, deputy chairman of House of Representatives Commission VII on energy, said it was important for the government to distinguish between energy self-suffciency and security.

The latter was much more important, he said, considering that global competitiveness was a priority of most countries around the globe. “It doesn’t matter if a country doesn’t even have any natural resources, so long as it can meet domestic demand at a competitive price,” he said.

Jakarta Post, Page-13, Saturday, March, 25, 2017

Oil and Gas Revenue Shrinking Dramatically

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) recognizes the state revenue from oil and gas (oil) decreased significantly in recent years. If earlier the sector was able to contribute more than Rp 300 trillion, today could drop to less than Rp 100 trillion.

Director General of Budget, Ministry of Finance Askolani explain the decline of state revenue from oil and gas drawn from the data of Ministry of Finance 2012-2016 period. In 2012-2014 the oil and gas sector revenue reached Rp 300 trillion. However, in 2016, the contribution of the oil and gas sector is only about Rp 80 trillion to Rp90 trillion.

Due to the oil and gas sector is currently the driver of the national economy, the decline in this sector give great influence to the state government budget (APBN) this country. Askolani add true total revenues in the oil and gas sector in 2012-2014 is not much different from the numbers subsidized fuel oil (BBM) and electricity provided by the government reached Rp350 trillion. When the government does not change in energy in 2015, of the burden of subsidies will erode state budget figures.

"Fortunately in 2015, the government subsidy policy change and electrical energy. If not changed, we are exhausted, "said Askolani, in the event of Economic Challenges, Special Energy Outlook Series on Energy Building, Jakarta

In addressing the decline in oil and gas sector, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ignatius Jonan found oil and gas industry, from upstream to downstream, rated to make efficiency. "The paradigm must exist adjustments. Now the oil and gas industry is no longer merely to sustain economic growth. The most important thing for the country, to encourage equitable economic growth and increased purchasing power, "said Jonan.

The cost efficiency of operations, said Jonan, is one way that can be done industrialists in the face of world oil prices. The reason, no party can predict oil prices world-awaited rose by businesses. "I want to ask, who set the price of oil and gas? No one could specify. Which can only global market. If not, we can determine the cost efficiency.

IN INDONESIAN

Pendapatan Migas Menyusut Drastis

Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) mengakui penerimaan negara dari sektor minyak dan gas (migas) menurun signifikan beberapa tahun belakangan. Jika sebelumnya sektor itu mampu berkontribusi lebih dari Rp 300 triliun, saat ini bisa anjlok ke bawah Rp 100 triliun.

    Direktur Jenderal Anggaran Kemenkeu Askolani memaparkan penurunan penerimaan negara dari sektor migas tergambar dari data Kemenkeu periode 2012-2016. Pada 2012-2014 penerimaan sektor migas mencapai Rp 300 triliun. Namun, di 2016, kontribusi dari sektor migas hanya sekitar Rp 80 triliun-Rp90 triliun.

    Karena sektor migas sampai Saat ini merupakan pendorong ekonomi nasional, penurunan di sektor ini memberikan pengaruh besar bagi anggaran pendapatan belanja negara (APBN) negeri ini. Askolani menambahkan sejatinya total penerimaan di sektor migas pada 2012-2014 sudah tidak jauh berbeda dengan angka subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) dan listrik yang diberikan pemerintah mencapai Rp350 triliun. Ketika pemerintah tidak melakukan perubahan energi di 2015, tentu beban subsidi akan menggerus angka APBN.

“Untungnya pada 2015, pemerintah ubah kebijakan subsidi energi dan listrik. Kalau tidak diubah, habis kita,” ujar Askolani, dalam acara Economic Challenges, Special Energy Outlook Series, di Energy Building, Jakarta

Dalam menyikapi penurunan di sektor migas, Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Ignasius Jonan berpendapat pelaku industri migas, mulai hulu hingga hilir, dinilai harus melakukan efisiensi. “Paradigma harus ada penyesuaian. Sekarang industri migas tidak lagi semata-mata untuk menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi. Yang paling penting bagi negara, mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi merata dan daya beli meningkat,” ucap Jonan.

Efisiensi biaya operasional, kata Jonan, ialah salah satu cara yang bisa dilakukan industrialis dalam menghadapi harga minyak dunia. Penyebabnya, tidak ada pihak yang bisa memprediksi harga minyak dunia yang dinanti-nanti

naik oleh pelaku usaha.  “Saya mau tanya, harga migas siapa yang tentukan? Tidak ada yang bisa tentukan. Yang bisa hanya market global. Kalau tidak bisa, yang kita bisa tentukan efisiensi biaya.

Media Indonesia, Page-17, Saturday, March, 25, 2017

Pertamina Inaugurate New VP Corporate Communication

Wianda Pusponegoro

    PT Pertamina officially inaugurated Adiatma Sardjito as Vice President of Corporate Communications or replaced company spokesman Wianda Pusponegoro. The inauguration was held Friday at the head office of Pertamina, Jakarta, and conducted by the Corporate Secretary of PT Pertamina Syahrial Mukhtar.

In his speech, Syahrial Mukhtar turnover positions are common and prevalent in every organization, especially for Pertamina is large and dynamic.

"Many of the challenges facing the future Pertamina to be dealt with holistically," said Syahrial. 

    The new spokesman Adiatma Pertamina Pertamina Sardjito a career employee who previously served as Corporate Secretary of PT Pertamina Gas from 8 April 2015-24 March 2017. 

    While Wianda Pusponegoro, who served as VP of Corporate Communication of March 11, 2015 - March 24, 2017, was placed in another business sphere precisely in the Directorate of Finance and Corporate Strategy Pertamina.

Meanwhile, Adim nicknamed Adiatma explains that he applied for the support of all parties to help Pertamina for the better.

"Please pray and support, many of the tasks mandated by the government to Pertamina and for us to finish together, through several projects both in the downstream and upstream in favor of energy independence," said Adiatma. 

    Adiatma Sardjito wants to improve the reputation of the company for the better. 

"I hope to help the publication of the world of Oil and Gas and Pertamina, what has been achieved both this year and in the future is improved. Besides that, it will continue what is already good,” said Adiatma Sardjito.

He also said it will study the ins and outs of the business Pertamina first before taking certain steps in performing its duties as a spokesperson. 

    Corporate Vice Wianda Pusponegoro Communication Pertamina also said the change of position in the company's State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) is common. 

"Things like this are normal, and don't forget about other things, because this is purely a change for learning and experience," said Wianda.

Investor Daily, Page-9, Saturday, March 25, 2017

lnpex Asked to Perform Study Refinery in Two Island

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) asked Inpex Corporation immediately undertake an early review of the detailed design (prefront engineering design / pre-FEED) liquefied natural gas (liquefied natural gas / LNG) in two locations. The location of onshore refineries that have the Aru Islands and Island Jamdena.

Deputy Minister Arcandra Tahar said the request was submitted formally through a letter that was sent last week. The letter is a response from a letter the previous Inpex. "The decision remains. Pre-Feed is made to the capacity of two, two locations, "said Arcandra in Jakarta, Thursday (23/3).

Arcandra said the decision was taken with consideration of more profit. Rather than just doing an initial review in one location. Pre-feed aims to estimate the cost of investment and project construction schedule. Besides the capacity and location of the LNG plant, can only be ensured through the implementation of the Pre-FEED first. "Must be pre-feed both," he said.

He explained that there are two options Masela LNG plant capacity offered, ie 7.5 million tonnes per year, or 9.5 million tons per year. This option appears because of lack of agreement ration gas for petrochemical plant will be built near the Masela block. The government wants the petrochemical allocation amounting to 474-480 million standard cubic per day / MMSCFD, while Inpex proposes 150 MMSCFD.

Although the total gas production target remains the same even though there are two options it is around 10.2 to 10.3 million tons per year. "Start pre-feed, we engage the Ministry of Industry to build a start talking who buy gas," he said.

The government wants woke petrochemical industry in Indonesia. The reason, Indonesia has not had a petrochemical plant capable of converting gas to propylene and polyethylene. This prompted the Indonesian imports of this product to be quite large.

The government was targeting so that the final investment decision (final investment decision / FID) Masela can be implemented in 2019. Furthermore, the first block gas production is expected to flow in 2026.

At the end of March 2016 the government yesterday rejected the proposed revisions filed POD Inpex Masela. In the POD revision Masela with the development of floating LNG. Inpex was asked to resubmit the POD with the scheme as directed by the government.

IN INDONESIAN

lnpex Diminta Lakukan Kajian Kilang di Dua Pulau

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) meminta Inpex Corporation segera melakukan kajian awal desain rinci (prefront engineering design / pre-FEED) kilang gas alam cair (liquefien natural gas/ LNG) di dua lokasi. Adapun lokasi kilang darat yang dipilih yakni Pulau Aru dan Pulau Jamdena.

Wakil Menteri ESDM Arcandra Tahar mengatakan permintaan tersebut disampaikan secara resmi melalui surat yang dilayangkan sejak pekan lalu. Surat tersebut merupakan jawaban dari surat Inpex sebelumnya. “Keputusannya tetap. Pre-Feed dilakukan untuk kapasitas dua, lokasi dua,” kata Arcandra di Jakarta, Kamis (23/3).

Arcandra menuturkan keputusan tersebut diambil dengan mempertimbangan lebih banyak keuntungan yang didapat. Ketimbang hanya melakukan kajian awal di satu lokasi saja. Pre-feed bertujuan mengestimasikan biaya investasi dan jadwal pengerjaan proyek. Selain itu kapasitas dan lokasi kilang LNG, hanya dapat dipastikan melalui pelaksanaan Pre-FEED terlebih dahulu. “Harus pre-feed dua-duanya,” ujarnya.

Dia menjelaskan terdapat dua opsi kapasitas kilang LNG Blok Masela yang ditawarkan, yakni 7,5 juta ton per tahun atau 9,5 juta ton per tahun. Opsi ini muncul karena belum adanya kesepakatan jatah gas bagi pabrik petrokimia yang bakal dibangun di dekat Blok Masela. Pemerintah menginginkan alokasi petrokimia sebesar 474-480 million standard cubic per day/mmscfd, sementara Inpex mengusulkan 150 mmscfd.

Walaupun total produksi gas yang ditargetkan tetap sama meski ada dua opsi itu yaitu sekitar 10,2-10,3 juta ton per tahun. “Start pre-feed, kami engage Kementerian Perindustrian untuk membangun mulai bicara siapa yang beli gasnya,” katanya.

Pemerintah ingin agar industri petrokimia terbangun di Indonesia. Pasalnya, Indonesia selama ini belum memiliki pabrik petrokimia yang mampu mengubah gas menjadi propilena dan polietilena. Hal ini mendorong impor Indonesia atas produk ini menjadi cukup besar.

Pemerintah sempat menargetkan agar keputusan investasi akhir (final investment decision/FID) Blok Masela dapat dilaksanakan pada 2019. Selanjutnya, produksi gas pertama blok ini diharapkan dapat mengalir pada 2026.

Pada akhir Maret 2016 kemarin pemerintah menolak usulan revisi POD Blok Masela yang diajukan Inpex. Dalam revisi POD itu masela dengan pengembangan kilang LNG terapung. Inpex pun diminta mengajukan kembali POD dengan skema sesuai arahan pemerintah.

Investor Daily, Page-9, Saturday, March, 25, 2017