The government is optimistic INVESTMENT AND GAS GETS BETTER
The new oil and gas contracts with gross profit sharing scheme (gross split) should be more attractive than the old contract scheme refundable fee (cost recovery). Otherwise, investors will be reluctant to establish an employment contract same (production sharing Contra (PSC) to work on new oil and gas blocks in in the country.
The lack of investors in the oil and gas could threaten national energy security for the target production (lifting) oil more difficult to achieve. Moreover, other countries offer very attractive incentives to attract oil and gas investors. Currently, the target of lifting in the state budget is often not achieved. This is expressed by the Executive Director of the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Marjolijn Wajong, Master Plan Manager of Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Petroleum Ltd. Operations (ADCO) Ardy Muawin and Ryad Chairil Policy Center of the University of Indonesia (UI).
On the other hand, the Director General of Oil and Gas Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja contacted by Investor Daily optimistic that the domestic oil and gas investment, both upstream and downstream, will be better this year in line with the enforcement scheme of replacing the split gross cost recovery. "In the upstream sector, improvement of investment driven by the increase in crude oil prices and improved business processes. In the downstream, the investment will increase following a number of infrastructure projects are built and the issuance of regulations that provide opportunities for the private sector to participate in business, "he said.
Starting in January 2017, the government changed the PSC on new oil and gas contracts. If used before cost recovery scheme is then applied in the new rules which split gross scheme. The provisions set forth in the Regulation of Minister No. 8 of 2017 concerning the Production Sharing Contract Gross Split. PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE), a subsidiary of PT Pertamina started a new round of the national oil and gas industry. PHE signed a gross scheme split with the government for the Offshore North West Java (ONWJ).
In the scheme of gross split, cost component is no longer a burden on the state, as in the cost recovery scheme, but rather a burden on investors and contractors. Thus, the country is free from the risks and have certainty. For example, when using a scheme of cost recovery, profit sharing for the state compared to investors of 85: 15 to 70:30 for oil and gas. However, the scheme exclude the cost to be reimbursed the state. For the results of new oil and gas projects is calculated after fees split between the state and investors.
Keep Economies
According to the IPA Executive Director Marjolijn Wajong, industry stakeholders generally support the efficiency of oil and gas industry through the application of gross PSC split. "But the implementation of the scheme is not to degrade the economical oil and gas projects being lower than the project using a scheme of cost recovery, "he said.
Marjolijn explained that any appeal of the national oil and gas industry in the eyes of investors is still less attractive than other countries, including neighboring countries in Asean. For the sake of future improvements, Marjolijn said, the government needs to conduct a comprehensive review of the scheme gross PSC split, especially with regard to the implications for the development of deep-sea oil and gas project, off the beaten track, and that requires further dewatering stage (enhanced oil recovery / EOR). "Therefore, this is the region that want targeted Indonesia in the development of oil and gas in the future," he said.
Marjolijn added that the government also must compare the economics of the project with a gross scheme split against other countries. "Say've seen the economics are better, but whether it is competitive against other countries? What is unclear to us of which about taxation because this time there we follow the system of cost recovery, "he said.
Economies Factor
According to the Master Plan Manager of ADCO Ardy Muawin, oil and gas blocks for auction participants is relatively minimal. For example, oil and gas blocks auction period 2016 demand little and just set one winner. As a result, the government will auction off oil and gas blocks through PSC split gross scheme (model PSC gross). Lack of interest in oil and gas blocks auction is highly influenced by the economics of oil and gas block. Therefore, Ardy Muawin warned, the government must be careful to apply skemagross split because its implementation is not as easy matter on paper. Model PSC gross that uses one type of direct division of gross pendaatan tends to produce win-lose situation.
Most of the world oil and gas business analyst, also believes that the current oil prices are low, the model PSC gross less attractive to investors. The use of direct distribution model with a gross income for a single outcome (single split) with optimum results difficult to achieve because of the dynamics of the oil and gas business has a high degree of uncertainty. Application of gross PSC for oil and gas contracts is actually the old concept that could potentially bring a series of new problems. He explained that the concept of gross PSC as if a god helper or a perfect solution to the problem of latent cost recovery. Yet, at the same time, this model also creates new problems are more fundamental
of the cost recovery issue "because the government no longer controls the daily operations and expenditure of the contractor. At the same time, ownership of oil and gas facility that is no longer the government's right because it was purchased from the contractor.
According Ardy Muawin government should offer alternative solutions that could better accommodate the desire of investors to have an incentive when oil prices are low. The solution also should be able to reduce the impact of cost recovery on the other hand, there remains the government control over oil and gas activities.
Ryad Chairil Policy Center of the University of Indonesia if the government is already conducting studies on gross ripe split in the auction of oil and gas this year. "A proper policy through careful study. Well, who did the study, the logic of academic anything until the number of the calculation of gross split? "He said. Thus, says Chairil, do not get the impression the new scheme was implemented in a hurry. You see, when it led to the loss, it would be a problem great when a change of regime power.
He admits, cost recovery scheme is still suitable to be applied in Indonesia. "If there is to be done, maybe kin proportions and supervision, "he said. Moreover, according to Chairil Ryad, oil and gas fields with large reserves have been hard to find in the country. There is oil and gas fields marginal. The situation is different with coal reserves in the country are still abundant, so government's bargaining position against the investor is still high.
"In the matter of marginal oil and gas fields, I agree with the deputy minister of Energy and Mineral Resources that we need technology. However, it is still a question of whether the scheme's gross split could make marginal oil and gas fields remain economically viable, "he said.
He explained, in conditions of oil and gas reserves have been few and difficult location, only natural that investors need incentives. "Investors certainly take into account the security of the investment. I am concerned, investors will choose to invest in other countries that provide the potential for higher investment feasibility, "he said.
Nevertheless, Chairil said, all parties still need to wait for the response of investors at the auction oil and gas blocks opened. "We will know whether or not interesting to them. Also incentives what still needs to be given to investors, "he said.
Will be better
Director General of Oil and Gas MEMR I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja expect improved national oil and gas investment this year, though it is not predictable how much the increase in investment. He admitted, specialized in upstream oil and gas, improvement of investment is not solely driven application schema gross PSC split. Crude oil prices started
crawling up also assist the government's efforts to boost domestic oil and gas upstream investments. "Right (increase investment) because it also helped oil prices began to rise. One of the parameters of investment in the oil sector is the price of oil, then split and gross assisted revision of Government Regulation. (PP) No. 79 of 2010 on Operating Costs
which Refundable and Treatment of Income Tax in the Upstream Oil and Gas Sector, "he said.
Special Unit of Upstream Oil and Gas (SKK Migas) targets the oil and gas investment this year to reach US $ 13 billion, higher than the prognosis of 2016 amounted to US $ 12.01 billion. Magnitude of oil and gas investment is only for existing oil and gas blocks in accordance commitments cooperation contract (PSC / PSC) in the work plan and budget (work plan and budget / WP & B).
However, the investment rate in 2017 was lower than a few years ago. In 2011-2014, investment upstream oil and gas continue to rise, even briefly hit US $ 18 billion. Details, upstream oil and gas investment in 2011 was US $ 14 billion, then increased in 2012 to US $ 17 billion, and reached US $ 18 billion in 2013 and 2014. Furthermore, investment declined to US $ 14 billion in 2015 as oil prices tumbled.
Competitiveness
Wiratmaja said, through a gross scheme split, the government wants to improve Indonesia's competitiveness in the oil and gas attract investors. "We hope more competitive, more in the moment (rank). We're now at the end, "he stated.
According to him, skemagross split can improve the return on capital (internal rate of return / IRR) of oil and gas projects. That's because this scheme considering the location and condition of oil and gas field, the accumulated amount of production, and oil prices in determining the outcome ration oil and gas contractors. As a result, any marginal oil and gas fields can still be economical. "If there are additional marginal split its order IRR overtaken. We can the love of minimum IRR of 12%.
Scheme gross profit split will also make oil and gas companies will be even greater if they do efficiency. Wiratmaja also revealed an increase in investment has occurred in the downstream sector. It looks at many investments to build a refinery by PT Pertamina.
Still for the refinery business, Wiratmaja also optimistic going to invest a lot of that with the publication of regulations opened up opportunities to build private refineries in the country. Remain very optimistic, there is construction at the refinery. Then there is a regulation that is expected to attract a lot of investment.
Pertamina plans to improve and increase the capacity of its three oil refineries. The investment value
these three projects each with US $ 4.5 billion for the Cilacap refinery, US $ 4.2-4.3 billion for Dumai Refinery and US $ 2.7 billion for Balongan refinery. Then, Pertamina is also building two new refineries with an estimated investment of each US $ 10-13 billion.
To boost investment refinery, Energy Minister Energy and Mineral Resources issued Decree No. 35 of 2016 on the Development of Domestic Oil Refinery by privately owned companies. This policy opens kesempakatan for private companies to build refineries. Not only that, to improve the economic viability, private companies can obtain tiskal and non-fiscal incentives. In addition to the refinery, the high interest in the utilization of liquefied natural gas / LNG is expected to boost investment downstream. "The utilization of LNG we also expect to attract investment," said Wiratmaja.
Kalla Group through its subsidiary, PT Bumi Sarana Migas (BSM), will build onshore LNG regasification terminal with a capacity of 4 million tons per year in Bojonegara, Banten. Construction of the project will begin this year and is targeted to be operational in early 2020. In addition Kalla Group, Pertamina will also add storage unit
and the floating (floating storage and regasification unit / FSRU) LNG has.
IN INDONESIAN
PEMERINTAH OPTIMISTIS INVESTASI MIGAS MEMBAIK
Kontrak Baru Migas Harus Lebih Atraktif
Kontrak baru migas melalui skema bagi hasil kotor (gross split) harus lebih menarik dari kontrak lama menggunakan skema biaya yang dapat dikembalikan (cost recovery). Jika tidak, investor akan enggan menjalin kontrak kerja
sama (production sharing Contra (PSC) untuk menggarap blok-blok migas baru di Tanan Air.
Minimnya investor di blok migas bisa mengancam ketahanan energi nasional karena target produksi (lifting) migas makin sulit dicapai. Apalagi negara-negara lain menawarkan insentif yang sangat atraktif untuk menjaring investor migas. Saat ini saja, target lifting di APBN sering tak tercapai. Hal itu diungkapkan Direktur Eksekutif Indonesian Petroleum
Association (IPA) Marjolijn Wajong, Master Plan Manager Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Petroleum Operations Ltd (ADCO) Ardy Muawin, dan Chairil Ryad dari Policy Center Universitas Indonesia (UI).
Di pihak lain, Dirjen Migas Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja yang dihubungi Investor Daily optimistis investasi migas domestik, baik hulu maupun hilir, bakal lebih baik tahun ini sejalan dengan diberlakukannya skema gross split menggantikan cost recovery. “Di sektor hulu, perbaikan investasi didorong kenaikan harga minyak mentah dan perbaikan proses bisnis. Di hilir, investasi akan meningkat menyusul banyaknya proyek infrastruktur yang dibangun dan diterbitkannya regulasi yang memberikan peluang bagi swasta untuk ikut berbisnis,” ujar dia.
Mulai Januari 2017, pemerintah mengubah PSC pada kontrak-kontrak baru migas. Jika yang digunakan sebelumnya adalah skema cost recovery maka yang diterapkan dalam aturan baru yaitu skema gross split. Ketentuan itu dituangkan dalam Peraturan Menteri ESDM No 8 Tahun 2017 tentang Kontrak Bagi Hasil Gross Split. PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE), anak usaha PT Pertamina mengawali babak baru industri migas nasional tersebut. PHE meneken skema gross split dengan pemerintah untuk Blok Offshore North Westjava (ONWJ).
Dalam skema gross split, komponen biaya tidak lagi menjadi beban negara, seperti dalam skema cost recovery, melainkan menjadi beban investor dan kontraktor. Dengan demikian, negara terbebas dari berbagai risiko dan lebih memiliki
kepastian. Sebagai contoh, ketika menggunakan skema cost recovery, bagi hasil untuk negara dibanding investor sebesar 85: 15 untuk minyak dan 70:30 untuk gas. Namun, skema tersebut memasukkan komponen biaya yang harus diganti negara. Bagi hasil itu baru dihitung setelah biaya proyek migas dibagi dua antara negara dan investor.
Jaga Keekonomian
Menurut Direktur Eksekutif IPA Marjolijn Wajong, para pelaku industri secara umum mendukung adanya efisiensi industri migas melalui penerapan PSC gross split. “Tapi penerapan skema ini jangan sampai menurunkan keekonomian
proyek migas menjadi lebih rendah dari proyek yang menggunakan skema cost recovery,” kata dia.
Marjolijn menjelaskan, saat ini pun daya tarik industri migas nasional di mata investor masih kalah atraktif dibanding negara-negara lain, termasuk negara-negara tetangga di Asean. Demi perbaikan ke depan, kata Marjolijn, pemerintah perlu melakukan kajian komprehensif terhadap skema PSC gross split, terutama menyangkut dampaknya bagi pengembangan proyek migas laut dalam, terpencil, dan yang membutuhkan pengurasan tahap lanjut (enhanced oil recovery/ EOR). “Sebab, wilayah inilah yang ingin disasar Indonesia dalam pengembangan migas ke depan,” tutur dia.
Marjolijn menambahkan, pemerintah juga mesti membandingkan keekonomian proyek dengan skema gross split terhadap negara-negara lain. “Katakanlah sudah dilihat keekonomiannya lebih bagus, tetapi apakah itu cukup kompetitif terhadap negara lain? Yang belum jelas bagi kami di antaranya soal perpajakan karena selama ini kan kami mengikuti sistem cost recovery,” papar dia.
Faktor Keekonomian
Menurut Master Plan Manager ADCO Ardy Muawin, peserta lelang blok migas selama ini tergolong minim. Contohnya lelang blok migas periode 2016 yang peminatnya sedikit dan hanya ditetapkan satu pemenang. Alhasil, pemerintah akan melelang ulang blok migas lewat PSC skema gross split (model PSC gross). Kurangnya peminat dalam lelang blok migas ini sangat dipengaruhi faktor keekonomian dari blok migas tersebut. Karena itu, Ardy Muawin mengingatkan, pemerintah harus berhati-hati menerapkan skemagross split karena implementasinya tidak semudah hitungan di atas kertas. Model PSC gross yang menggunakan satu jenis pembagian langsung dari pendaatan bruto cenderung menghasilkan situasi yang win-lose.
Sebagian besar analis bisnis migas dunia, juga berpendapat bahwa saat harga migas rendah, model PSC gross kurang menarik bagi investor. Penggunaan model pembagian langsung dari pendapatan bruto dengan bagi hasil tunggal (single split) dengan hasil yang optimum sulit tercapai karena dinamika usaha migas memiliki derajat ketidakpastian yang tinggi. Penerapan PSC gross untuk kontrak migas sebenarnya adalah konsep lama yang berpotensi memunculkan sederet masalah baru. Dia menjelaskan, konsep PSC gross seolah-olah menjadi dewa penolong atau solusi jitu terhadap masalah laten cost recovery. Padahal, pada saat yang sama, model ini juga memunculkan masalah baru yang lebih fundamental
dari masalah cost recovery “Sebab, pemerintah tidak lagi mengontrol operasi keseharian dan pengeluaran dari kontraktor. Pada saat bersamaan, kepemilikan dari fasilitas migas yang ada tidak lagi menjadi hak pemerintah karena dibeli dari bagian kontraktor.
Menurut Ardy Muawin, pemerintah mesti menawarkan solusi alternatif yang bisa lebih mengakomodasi keinginan investor demi mendapatkan insentif saat harga minyak rendah. Solusi itu pun mesti bisa mengurangi dampak cost recovery Di sisi lain, tetap ada kontrol pemerintah terhadap kegiatan migas.
Chairil Ryad dari Policy Center Universitas Indonesia mempertanyakan apakah pemerintah sudah melakukan kajian matang tentang gross split dalam lelang migas tahun ini. “Sebuah kebijakan semestinya melalui kajian yang matang. Nah, siapa yang melakukan kajian itu, logika akademis-nya apa hingga muncul angka hitungan gross split?" kata dia. Dengan demikian, kata Chairil, jangan sampai muncul kesan skema baru itu diterapkan secara terburu-buru. Soalnya, bila memunculkan kerugian, akan jadi masalah besar ketika terjadi pergantian rezim kekuasaan.
Dia mengakui, skema cost recovery masih cocok diterapkan di Indonesia. “Kalau ada yang perlu dibenahi, mungkin proporsi dan pengawasannya," tutur dia. Apalagi, menurut Chairil Ryad, lapangan migas dengan cadangan besar sudah sulit ditemukan di Tanah Air. Yang ada adalah lapangan-lapangan migas marginal. Kondisi ini berbeda dengan cadangan batubara di dalam negeri yang masih melimpah, sehingga posisi tawar pemerintah terhadap investor masih tinggi.
“Dalam soal lapangan migas marginal, saya sependapat dengan wakil menteri ESDM bahwa kita butuh teknologi. Namun, masih jadi pertanyaan apakah skema gross split ini bisa membuat lapangan migas marjinal tetap ekonomis,” papar dia.
Dia menjelaskan, dalam kondisi cadangan migas yang sudah sedikit dan lokasi yang sulit, wajar bila investor membutuhkan insentif. “Investor pasti memperhitungkan keamanan investasinya. Saya khawatir, investor akan memilih berinvestasi di negara lain yang memberikan potensi kelayakan investasi lebih tinggi,” ucap dia.
Meski demikian, kata Chairil, semua pihak masih perlu menunggu respons investor saat lelang blok migas dibuka. “Kita akan tahu apakah menarik atau tidak bagi mereka. Juga insentif apa saja yang masih perlu diberikan kepada investor," ujar dia.
Akan Lebih Baik
Dirjen Migas Kementerian ESDM I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja berharap investasi migas nasional membaik tahun ini, walaupun belum dapat diprediksi seberapa besar peningkatan investasinya. Dia mengakui, khusus di hulu migas, perbaikan investasi tidak semata-mata didorong penerapan PSC skema gross split. Harga minyak mentah yang mulai merangkak naikjuga membantu upaya pemerintah menggenjot investasi hulu migas dalam negeri. “Betul (kenaikan investasi) karena dibantu juga harga minyak yang mulai naik. Salah satu parameter investasi di sektor minyak adalah harga minyak, kemudian dibantu gross split dan revisi Peraturan Pemerintah.(PP) No 79 Tahun 2010 tentang Biaya Operasi yang Dapat Dikembalikan dan Perlakuan Pajak Penghasilan di Bidang Usaha Hulu Migas," tutur dia.
Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) menargetkan investasi migas tahun ini mencapai US$ 13 miliar, naik dibanding prognosa 2016 sebesar US$ 12,01 miliar. Besaran investasi migas ini hanya untuk blok migas eksisting sesuai komitmen kontraktor kontrak kerja sama (KKKS/PSC) dalam rencana kerja dan anggaran (work plan and budget/WP&B).
Namun, angka investasi 2017 masih lebih rendah dari beberapa tahun lalu. Pada 2011-2014, investasi hulu migas terus meningkat, bahkan sempat mencapai US$ 18 miliar. Rincinya, investasi hulu migas pada 2011 tercatat US$ 14 miliar, kemudian naik pada 2012 menjadi US$ 17 miliar, lalu mencapai US$ 18 miliar pada 2013 dan 2014. Selanjutnya investasi menurun hingga menjadi US$ 14 miliar pada 2015 seiring anjloknya harga minyak.
Daya Saing
Wiratmaja menuturkan, melalui skema gross split, pemerintah ingin memperbaiki daya saing Indonesia dalam menggaet investor migas. “Kami harap lebih kompetitif, lebih di saat (rankingnya). Kita kan sekarang di ujung,” tegas dia.
Menurut dia, skema gross split dapat memperbaiki tingkat pengembalian modal (internal rate of return/IRR) proyek migas. Itu karena skema ini mempertimbangkan lokasi dan kondisi lapangan migas, jumlah akumulasi produksi, dan harga minyak dalam menetapkan bagi hasil jatah kontraktor migas. Alhasil, lapangan migas marginal pun masih tetap bisa ekonomis.
“Kalau marginal ada tambahan split-nya supaya IRR-nya terkejar. Kami kan kasih minimum dapat IRR 12%.
Skema gross split juga akan membuat keuntungan perusahaan migas bakal semakin besar jika mereka melakukan efisiensi. Wiratmaja juga mengungkapkan, peningkatan investasi pun terjadi di sektor hilir migas. Itu terlihat pada banyaknya rencana investasi pembangunan kilang oleh PT Pertamina.
Masih untuk bisnis kilang, Wiratmaja juga optimis bakal banyak yang berinvestasi dengan diterbitkannya regulasi yang membuka peluang swasta membangun kilang di dalam negeri. Tetap sangat optimistis, ada pembangunan di kilang. Kemudian ada regulasi yang diharapkan bisa menarik banyak investasi.
Pertamina berencana memperbaiki dan meningkatkan kapasitas tiga kilang minyak yang dimilikinya. Nilai investasi ketiga proyek ini masing-masing US$ 4,5 miliar untuk Kilang Cilacap, US$ 4,2-4,3 miliar untuk Kilang Dumai, dan US$ 2,7 miliar untuk Kilang Balongan. Kemudian, Pertamina juga tengah membangun dua kilang baru dengan perkiraan investasi masing-masing US$ 10-13 miliar.
Untuk mendongkrang investasi kilang, menteri ESDM menerbitkan Peraturan Menteri ESDM No 35 Tahun 2016 tentang Pelaksanaan Pembangunan Kilang Minyak di Dalam Negeri oleh Badan Usaha Swasta. Beleid ini membuka kesempakatan bagi perusahaan swasta untuk membangun kilang. Tak hanya itu, untuk meningkatkan kelayakan keekonomian, perusahaan swasta bisa memperoleh insentif tiskal dan non fiskal. Selain kilang, tingginya minat pemanfaatan gas alam cair/LNG diharapkan mendongkrak investasi hilir migas. “Utilisasi LNG juga kami harapkan bisa menarik investasi," tegas Wiratmaja.
Kalla Group melalui anak perusahaannya, PT Bumi Sarana Migas (BSM), akan membangun terminal regasifikasi LNG darat berkapasitas 4 juta ton per tahun di Bojonegara, Banten. Pembangunan proyek ini akan dimulai tahun ini dan ditargetkan dapat beroperasi pada awal 2020. Selain Kalla Group, Pertamina juga akan menambah unit penampungan dan regasifikasi terapung (floating storage and regasification unit/ FSRU) LNG yang dimiliknya.
Investor Daily, Page-1, Thursday, 26, Jan, 2017
