Electric Car Has Not Become Oil Threat

The awareness of exploiting non-fossil energy is growing. Automotive manufacturers increasingly aggressively develop electric cars. Nevertheless, the use of fuel oil (BBM) will continue to grow, although electric cars will be present. Even the use of fuel still accounts grow up to 20 years ahead in developing countries like Indonesia.

In Indonesia, the government is drafting a Presidential Regulation on electric cars: the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is also aggressively socializing the presence of electric cars. While from the side of PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) provides support by moving quickly to build a charging infrastructure or charging station.

BP Group Chief Economist Spencer Dale said that currently world oil consumption reached 95 million barrels, only 20% or about 20 million used for cars.

"If tomorrow the whole world is full of electric cars, oil consumption is likely to remain," Dale said at the ESDM Ministry on Thursday (14/9).

Dale says, now in the world there are 1 billion cars and only 2 million which is an electric car. And the number of electric cars is likely to increase to 2 billion in the next 20 years. The growth in the number of electric cars comes from developing countries, due to increased welfare and government support.

"There is currently considerable subsidies for electric cars in many countries," Dale said.

The rise of electric cars is also due to social behavior. That is, people still buy electric cars though more expensive, because they care about the environment. There are also those who like new technology or so people think they are good people.

"Others, buying a car is an important investment after the house," he added.

With these various factors, there will be about 10 million electric cars by 2035. This growth is quite high. Even so, Dale believes, oil consumption is only about 1.5 barrels per day or only 1%.

"The impact on oil demand is not great," said Dale.

Especially in Indonesia, last year there has been an increase in energy consumption in Indonesia by 5.9%. And growth in energy consumption in Indonesia continues to increase, especially seeing the statistics of Indonesia's economic growth is predicted to remain at the rate of 5% in 5 years to 10 years.

However, energy consumption in member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) such as Australia, Germany, France, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States tend to fall.

"Oil demand from OECD countries declined in the last 10 years and will continue to decline in the future," said Dale.

    Fahmi Radhi Energy Observer of Gadjah Mada University (UGM) said that the government must develop renewable energy, including electric cars.

IN INDONESIA

Mobil Listrik Belum Menjadi Ancaman Minyak

Kesadaran memanfaatkan energi non-fosil kian membesar. Pabrikan otomotif semakin gencar mengembangkan mobil listrik. Kendati begitu, penggunaan bahan bakar minyak (BBM) akan terus tumbuh, meskipun mobil listrik akan hadir. Bahkan penggunaan BBM masih akun tumbuh hingga 20 tahun ke depan di negara berkembang seperti Indonesia.

Di Indonesia, pemerintah sedang menyusun Peraturan Presiden tentang mobil listrik: Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) juga gencar melakukan sosialisasi kehadiran mobil listrik. Sementara dari sisi PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) memberikan dukungan dengan bergerak cepat membangun infrastruktur pengisian listrik atau charging station.

Kepala Ekonom BP Group Spencer Dale menyebutkan, saat ini konsumsi minyak masyarakat di dunia mencapai 95 juta barel, hanya 20% atau sekitar 20 juta yang digunakan untuk mobil. 

"Jika besok seluruh dunia penuh dengan mobil listrik, konsumsi minyak kemungkinan akan tetap," kata Dale di Kementerian ESDM, Kamis (14/9).

Dale menyebutkan, kini di dunia ada 1 miliar mobil dan hanya 2 juta yang merupakan mobil listrik. Dan jumlah mobil listrik kemungkinan meningkat hingga 2 miliar di 20 tahun ke depan. Pertumbuhan jumlah mobil listrik ini berasal dari negara berkembang, karena terjadi peningkatan kesejahteraan dan dukungan pemerintah.

"Saat ini ada subsidi yang cukup besar untuk mobil listrik di banyak negara" ujar Dale.

Maraknya mobil listrik juga karena adanya perilaku sosial. Yakni masyarakat tetap membeli mobil listrik meskipun lebih mahal, karena mereka peduli terhadap lingkungan. Ada juga mereka menyukai teknologi baru atau supaya orang berpikir mereka adalah orang yang baik. 

"Yang lain, membeli mobil adalah investasi penting setelah rumah," imbuhnya.

Dengan berbagai faktor tersebut, akan ada sekitar 10 juta mobil listrik pada tahun 2035. Ini pertumbuhan cukup tinggi. Biarpun begitu Dale yakin, konsumsi minyak hanya berkurang sekitar 1,5 barel per hari atau hanya 1%. 

"Dampak terhadap permintaan minyak tidak besar," tegas Dale.

Khusus di Indonesia, tahun lalu telah terjadi peningkatan konsumsi energi di Indonesia sebesar 5,9%. Dan pertumbuhan konsumsi energi di Indonesia terus meningkat terutama melihat statistik pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang diprediksi tetap berada di angka 5% dalam 5 tahun hingga 10 tahun mendatang.

Namun pemakaian energi di negara anggota Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) seperti Australia, Jerman, Prancis, Korea Selatan, Inggris, dan Amerika Serikat cenderung turun. 

"Permintaan minyak dari negara OECD menurun dalam 10 tahun terakhir dan akan terus menurun ke depan," jelas Dale. 

     Fahmi Radhi Pengamat Energi Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) bilang, pemerintah harus mengembangkan energi terbarukan, termasuk mobil listrik.

Kontan, Page-18, Friday, Sept 15, 2017

Oil Market moving back into balance : IEA

There are signs the global oil market is returning to balance and stocks of oil products in industrialised nations could soon fall below their five-year average, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday

The IEA also said production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and its allies fell in August and compliance with their pact to cut supply to the markets increased.

OPEC and a number of other producers including Russia agreed last year on production cuts to ease a global supply glut, but prices have not risen much above US$ 50 per barrel as compliance has been a problem. But with oil demand perking up as Well as hurricanes and regular summer maintenance knocking out some production, the IEA said it has seen some of that glut disappear.

Within industrialised countries that are members of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) oil “product stocks are now only 35 mb above the live-year average," the IEA said in its monthly report. 

Industry and government oil products stocks stood at 1,796.3 million barrels in July in the 34 countries that make up the OECD . 

"Depending on the pace of recovery for the US refining industry post-(Hurricane) Harvey, very soon OECD product stocks could fall to, or even below, the five-year level,” added the IEA.

“Based on recent bets made by investors, expectations are that markets are tightening and that prices will rise, albeit very modestly.”

Looking at recent developments in the oil futures markets, the IEA called them “a sign that oil markets have started to rebalance.” 

On Tuesday OPEC, in its monthly report, also pointed to a decline in its production in August as a sign that supply and demand could be moving further toward balance. “

“It is clear that the rebalancing process is under way, supported by the high conformity levels of OPEC member countries and participating non-OPEC countries to the production adjustments” in the cooperation agreement, OPEC secretary general Sanusi Barkindo said in an speech in Oxford on Monday.

The IEA said OPEC crude production tell in August for the first time In five months, thanks to both cuts in production as well as a flare-up in turmoil in Libya disrupting output. Compliance with agreed production cuts among the 12 members bound by the pact rose to 82 percent from 75 percent in July.

The 10 non-OPEC producers that are part of the supply cut pact also cut production by 270,000 barrels per day in August from July, and their output is now 640,000 barrels per day their pledged level.

The IEA the impact of Hurricane Harvey, which  truck the United States Gulf Coast at the end of August where significant US refinery and export , Operations are concentrated on oil markets should he brief.

As far as Harvey is concerned, disruption to local oil markets in the US Gulf Coast is easing on a daily basis and its impact on global markets is likely to be relatively short-lived,” said the agency which advises the OECD on energy markets.

The IEA also raised its forecast for growth in global oil demand after thirst for crude “grew very strongly year-on-year” in the second quarter of this year.

lt now sees global oil demand increasing by 1.6 million barrels per day, to 97.7 mbd on average in 2017, thanks to brisk consumption in Europe and the US.

Oil prices rose after the report was published, with Brent crude adding 10 cents to $ 54.37 per barrel uround 08:20 GMT.

Jakarta Post, Page-21, Thursday, Sept 14, 2017

Cost Recovery Pressed

The government targets the cost recovery of upstream oil and gas business activities in 2018 to be reduced to US $ 1.39 billion with various efficiency and optimization efforts. The assumption of cost recovery in 2018 without any efficiency efforts is targeted at US $ 13.28 billion.

Secretary of Special Unit for Upstream Oil and Gas Upstream Activities (SKK Migas) Arief Handoko said that the target cost recovery in 2018 is an assumption of efficiency from the initial calculation of US $ 13.29 billion.

According to him, the adjustment of cost recovery figures in accordance with the proposal of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ignasius Jonan to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

In the proposal, an assumption was made based on 2017 performance and upstream oil and gas projects that will operate for the next 5 years. Initial assumption, cost recovery in 2019 reached US $ 1 2.49 billion, in 2020 of US $ 12.09 billion, in 2021 of US $ 12.44 billion and became US $ 12.18 billion in 2022. However, the government targeted the realization cost recovery is lower than that assumption through efficiency and optimization efforts.

The government targets cost recovery in 2019 (US $ 10.82 billion), 2020 (US $ 10.28 billion), 2021 (US $ 9.76 billion), and in 2022 (US $ 9.28 billion).

Based on data from SKK Migas, cost recovery until August 2017 was realized US $ 7.22 billion. Meanwhile, the government's share of US $ 8.14 billion and contractor's share of US $ 2.87 billion. The government targets oil and gas revenues in 2018 of US $ 10.95 billion when cost recovery is assumed to be US $ 11.39 billion and contractor portion of US $ 3.9 billion resulting in gross revenue of US $ 26.25 billion with Indonesian crude oil price price / ICP] US $ 48 per barrel.

This figure is in accordance with Letter of Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources to the Minister of Finance in February 2017, namely the number of cost recovery optimization, "he said.

TWO ASSUMPTIONS

In the proposal on 14 February 2017, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources made the assumption of oil and gas lifting made two versions, namely moderate and optimistic. Moderate assumptions in 2018, oil lifting of 771,000 barrels per day (bpd) and gas 1.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (barrel oil equivalent per day / boepd). Oil assumption in 2019 fell to 722,000 bpd and gas rose to 1.21 million boepd.

By 2020, the moderate oil lifting assumption touches 695,000 bpd and gas 1.19 million boepd. Oil lifting assumptions continue to fall in 2021 and 2022 with 651,000 bpd and 589,000 bpd respectively.

Unlike oil, in 2021 and 2022 the assumption of lifting gas actually rose to 1.23 million boepd and 1.25 million boepd. Meanwhile, the optimistic assumption in 2018, target lifting 815,000 bph. Then, the figure rose to 850,000 bpd in 2019 and again fell in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively 840,000 bp, 802,000 bpd, and 800,000 bpd.

In addition to performance factors in 2017, next year's cost recovery target calculates the additional cost of depreciation expense from the new project. Two projects that contribute to cost recovery next year include the Jangkrik Iapangan, which operates in mid-2017 and Block A, Aceh, operating in early 2018.

"The magnitude of cost recovery in 2018 takes into account the performance of 2017, coupled with the burden of depreciation costs incremented with onstreamnya [operations] of Jangkrik Field and Block A in Aceh," he said.

Earlier, Head of SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi said the addition of cost recovery realization this year will happen at the end of the year so that it must keep its achievement not exceed the target of US $ 10.49 billion. With the largest composition, ie 48% comes from operating costs. It also seeks to make operating costs more efficient.

Nevertheless, he mentioned that there is a potential for additional cost recovery by the end of the year as capital expenditures usually grow by the end of the year.

By the end of this year, the biggest increase comes from the Mahakam Block (Total E & P Indonesie) in East Kalimantan which ends this year's contract of around US $ 900 million and Muara Bakau Block (Eni Muara Bakau BV) in East Kalimantan waters because the field is already in production.

"At the end of the year it will be approximately from Mahakam block because all Mahakam expenditure [expenditure] issued by Total will be charged at the end of the year according to PSC contract termination. The number is also large from Cricket Field because it has started onstream, then the field Cricket began to be entitled to charge depreciation this year, "said Amien.

IN INDONESIA

Cost Recovery Ditekan

Pemerintah menargetkan pengembalian biaya operasi (cost recovery) kegiatan usaha hulu minyak dan gas bumi pada 2018 dapat ditekan menjadi US$1 1,39 miliar dengan berbagai upaya efisiensi dan optimalisasi. Asumsi cost recovery pada 2018 tanpa ada upaya efisiensi ditargetkan sebesar US$13,28 miliar.

Sekretaris Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) Arief Handoko mengatakan bahwa target cost recovery pada 2018 tersebut merupakan asumsi efisiensi dari perhitungan awal sebesar US$13,29 miliar.

Menurutnya, penyesuaian angka cost recovery sesuai dengan usulan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Ignasius Jonan kepada Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

Dalam usulan itu telah ditetapkan asumsi yang dibuat berdasarkan kinerja 2017 dan proyek hulu migas yang akan beroperasi hingga 5 tahun ke depan. Asumsi awal, cost recovery pada 2019 mencapai US$1 2,49 miliar, pada 2020 sebesar US$ 12,09 miliar, pada 2021 sebesar US$ 12,44 miliar dan menjadi US$ 12,18 miliar pada 2022. Namun, pemerintah menargetkan realisasi cost recovery lebih rendah dari asumsi tersebut melalui berbagai upaya efisiensi dan optimalisasi.

Pemerintah menargetkan cost recovery pada 2019 (US$ 10,82 miliar), 2020 (US$ 10,28 miliar), 2021 (US$ 9,76 miliar), dan pada 2022 (US$ 9,28 miliar).

Berdasarkan data SKK Migas, cost recovery hingga Agustus 2017 terealisasi US$ 7,22 miliar. Sementara itu, bagi hasil pemerintah sebesar US$ 8,14 miliar dan bagi hasil kontraktor sebesar US$ 2,87 miliar. Pemerintah menargetkan pendapatan migas pada 2018 sebesar US$ 10,95 miliar ketika cost recovery diasumsikan US$ 11 ,39 miliar dan bagian kontraktor US$ 3,9 miliar sehingga pendapatan kotor sebesar US$ 26,25 miliar dengan harga minyak mentah Indonesia [Indonesian crude price/ICP] US$48 per barel.

Angka ini sesuai dengan Surat Menteri ESDM ke Menteri Keuangan pada Februari 2017, yakni angka optimalisasi cost recovery,” ujarnya. 

DUA ASUMSI 

Dalam usulan pada 14 Februari 2017 itu, Kementerian ESDM membuat asumsi lifting migas dibuat dua versi, yakni moderat dan optimistis. Asumsi moderat pada 2018, lifting minyak sebesar 771.000 barel per hari (bph) dan gas 1,19 juta barel setara minyak per hari (barrel oil equivalent per day/boepd). Asumsi minyak pada 2019 turun menjadi 722.000 bph dan gas justru naik menjadi 1,21 juta boepd.

Pada 2020, asumsi moderat lifting minyak menyentuh 695.000 bph dan gas 1,19 juta boepd. Asumsi lifting minyak terus turun pada 2021 dan 2022 dengan angka 651.000 bph dan 589.000 bph secara berturut-turut.

Berbeda dengan minyak, pada 2021 dan 2022 asumsi lifting gas justru naik menjadi 1,23 juta boepd dan 1,25 juta boepd. Sementara itu, asumsi optimistis pada 2018, target lifting 815.000 bph. Kemudian, angkanya naik menjadi 850.000 bph pada 2019 dan kembali turun pada 2020, 2021, dan 2022 berturut-turut 840.000 bph, 802.000 bph, dan 800.000 bph.

Selain faktor kinerja pada 2017, target cost recovery tahun depan menghitung penambahan beban biaya depresiasi dari proyek baru. Dua proyek yang berkontribusi menambah cost recovery pada tahun depan, yakni Iapangan Jangkrik yang beroperasi pada medio 2017 dan Blok A, Aceh yang beroperasi awal 2018.

“Besaran cost recovery pada 2018 memperhitungkan performance 2017, ditambah adanya beban biaya depresiasi yang bertambah dengan onstreamnya [beroperasinya] Lapangan Jangkrik dan Blok A di Aceh,” katanya.

Sebelumnya, Kepala SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi mengatakan penambahan realisasi cost recovery pada tahun ini akan terjadi pada akhir tahun sehingga pihaknya harus menjaga agar pencapaiannya tidak melampaui target US$ 10,49 miliar. Dengan komposisi terbesar, yakni 48% berasal dari biaya operasi. Pihaknya pun berupaya agar biaya operasi bisa lebih efisien.

Kendati demikian, dia menyebut terdapat potensi penambahan cost recovery pada akhir tahun karena biasanya belanja modal benambah menjelang penghujung tahun.

Pada akhir tahun ini, penambahan terbesar berasal dari Blok Mahakam (Total E&P Indonesie) di Kalimantan Timur yang berakhir kontraknya tahun ini sekitar US$ 900 juta dan Blok Muara Bakau (Eni Muara Bakau BV) di perairan Kalimantan Timur karena lapangannya sudah berproduksi.

Mahakam Block-East Kalimantan

“Pada akhir tahun nanti kira-kira dari Blok Mahakam karena memang semua expenditure [belanja] Mahakam yang dikeluarkan Total akan dibebankan pada akhir tahun sesuai berakhirnya kontrak PSC. Yang jumlahnya cukup besar juga dari Lapangan Jangkrik karena sudah mulai onstream, maka lapangan Jangkrik mulai berhak untuk membebankan depresiasi tahun ini,” kata Amien. 

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-28, Thursday, Sept 14, 2017

Domestic Gas Consumption Continues to Rise

Utilization of natural gas to meet domestic demand continues to increase since 2013. Rising demand for domestic gas and the decline in the commitment of export gas distribution to cause the increase in gas utilization in Indonesia. Since 2013-2015, domestic gas utilization growth is 9%.

From the data of SKK Migas as of June 2017, the trend of gas exports is now lower compared to 2010 and 2011. In 2010, the export proportion is still 4.336 billion British. thermal unit per day (BBtud) and domestic 3,379 BBtud. In 2011, although the total volume of distribution is smaller, the export share is still dominant, which is 4,078 BBtud and domestic 3,276 BBtud. In 2012, the export and domestic exports are narrowed by 81 Bbtud with export details of 3,631 BBtud and domestic 3,550 BBtud.

The share of gas utilization for domestic needs is greater than that of export starting in 2013, namely domestic 3,703 BBtud and export 3,402 BBtud.

Head of Program and Communications Division SKK Migas Wisnu Prabawa Taher said that the increasing trend of domestic gas utilization is influenced by the development of gas infrastructure and new gas field.

"Some things that increase domestic usage include the building of new gas infrastructure facilities such as regasification terminal Nusantara Regas, onstream of several new gas fields," he said.

From the consumer side, pipe gas users are dominated by industrial sector and electricity.

"The largest domestic gas pipeline users are industrial consumers, followed by electricity, especially PLN and its subsidiaries."

Meanwhile, Head of SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi considered that information technology has changed the pattern of working relationships and changes in business paradigm significant. Slowly start more and more companies that stood and established with based on information technology as a platform in business development.

He explained that the challenges in the application of technology are not only relevant for profit-oriented organizations. However, it also applies to SKK Migas and or upstream oil and gas industry in general.

"The technology is also used to improve the efficiency of time and cost, which in turn will affect how much revenue for the country," he said when opening the Indonesia HR Summit 2017 in Yogyakarta earlier this week.

He added, efficiency and effectiveness in the digital era is a process that continues to be studied and conducted studies.

"By maximizing the role of information technology is expected to optimize performance both in SKK Migas and in terms of supervision and control activities to contractors cooperation contracts."

The independent statistics agency in the United States, Statista, reveals the most publicly valuable shift of the company in the period 2006 and 2016. In 2006 of six world-class companies there were three major oil and gas companies, ExxonMobil at number 1, and BP and Royal Dutch Shell at ranks 5 and 6. Meanwhile, General Electric, Microsoft, and Citigroup are ranked 2 to 4.

IN INDONESIA

Konsumsi Gas Domestik Terus Naik

Pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dalam negeri terus naik sejak 2013. Naiknya permintaan gas dalam negeri dan menurunnya komitmen penyaluran gas ekspor menjadi penyebab naiknya pemanfaatan gas di Indonesia. Sejak 2013-2015, pertumbuhan pemanfaatan gas domestik sebesar 9%.

Dari data SKK Migas per Juni 2017, tren ekspor gas kini lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan 2010 dan 2011. Pada 2010, proporsi ekspor masih 4.336 billion British. thermal unit per day (BBtud) dan domestik sebesar 3.379 BBtud. Pada 2011, kendati volume total penyalurannya lebih kecil, bagian ekspor masih dominan , yaitu 4.078 BBtud dan domestik 3.276 BBtud. Pada 2012, selisih porsi ekspor dan domestik semakin tipis, yakni hanya sebesar 81 Bbtud dengan rincian ekspor sebesar 3.631 BBtud dan domestik 3.550 BBtud.

Porsi pemanfaatan gas untuk kebutuhan domestik lebih besar dibandingkan ekspor mulai terjadi pada 2013, yaitu domestik 3.703 BBtud dan ekspor 3.402 BBtud.

Kepala Divisi Program dan Komunikasi SKK Migas Wisnu Prabawa Taher mengatakan bahwa tren peningkatan pemanfaatan gas domestik dipengaruhi oleh terbangunnya infrastruktur gas dan lapangan gas baru. 

“Beberapa hal yang meningkatkan pemakaian domestik antara lain terbangunnya fasilitas infrastruktur gas baru seperti terminal regasifikasi Nusantara Regas, onstream-nya beberapa lapangan gas baru,” ujarnya.

Dari sisi konsumen, pemakai gas pipa didominasi sektor industri dan ketenagalistrikan.

“Pemakai gas pipa domestik terbesar adalah konsumen industri yang kemudian diikuti oleh kelistrikan terutama PLN dan anak perusahaannya.”

Sementara itu, Kepala SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi menilai bahwa teknologi informasi telah mengubah pola hubungan kerja dan perubahan paradigma bisnis yang signifikan. Secara perlahan mulai hanyak perusahaan yang berdiri dan didirikan dengan berbasiskan teknologi informasi sebagai platform dalam pengembangan bisnis.

Dia menjelaskan bahwa tantangan dalam penerapan teknologi tidak hanya relevan bagi organisasi yang berorientasi profit. Namun, juga berlaku bagi SKK Migas dan atau industri hulu migas pada umumnya.

“Teknologi juga digunakan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi waktu dan biaya, yang pada akhirnya akan memengaruhi seberapa besar penerimaan bagi negara,” katanya saat membuka Indonesia HR Summit 2017 di Yogyakarta awal pekan ini.

Dia menambahkan, efisiensi dan efektivitas di era digital merupakan suatu proses yang terus dipelajari dan dilakukan kajian. 

“Dengan memaksimalkan peran teknologi informasi diharapkan dapat mengoptimalkan kinerja baik di SKK Migas maupun dalam hal kegiatan pengawasan dan pengendalian kepada kontraktor kontrak kerja sama.”

Lembaga survei independen di Amerika Serikat, Statista, mengungkap adanya pergeseran perusahaan yang paling bernilai secara publik dalam periode 2006 dan 2016. Pada 2006 dari enam perusahaan kelas dunia terdapat tiga perusahaan migas besar, yakni ExxonMobil pada peringkat 1, serta BP dan Royal Dutch Shell di peringkat 5 dan 6. Sementara itu, General Electric, Microsoft, dan Citigroup berada di peringkat 2 hingga 4.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-28, Thursday, Sept 14, 2017

Oil and Gas BPH Charges Industrial Engineering Commitment

Oil and Gas Downstream Regulatory Agency. (BPH Migas) noted that there are still two pipagas projects that have not been built yet. Both projects are the Cirebon -Semarang pipeline project assigned to PT Rekayasa Industri and the Kalija II gas pipeline project assigned to PT Bakrie Brothers Tbk.

Specifically for the Cirebon - Semarang gas pipeline project, Head of BPH Migas Fanshurullah Asa said it would meet with Industrial Engineering to discuss the completion of the project

"Industrial Engineering sent a letter to BPH Migas on September 18, 2017 and requested time for presentation of the progress of the Cirebon-Semarang pipeline builder," he said.

Previously, BPH Migas had summoned the Engineering Industry on July 6, 2017 to present the development of the 255 kilometer-long Cirebon-Semarang transmission pipeline with an investment of US $ 400 million.

As a result, Industrial Engineering has not yet realized the construction of Cirebon - Semarang transmission pipeline, due to gas supply constraints and buyers. The project stopped for almost 11 years.

Head of Marketing and Product Development Division of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk Adi Munandir revealed that Indonesia has not yet masterplan gas infrastructure development. Though the master plan is needed to implement the planning, ranging from gas production, gas development, to the industry to be built.

IN INDONESIA

BPH migas Menagih Komitmen Rekayasa Industri

Badan Pengatur Hilir Minyak dan Gas. (BPH Migas) mencatat, masih ada dua proyek pipagas yang hingga saat ini belum juga dibangun. Kedua proyek tersebut adalah proyek pipa Cirebon -Semarang yang ditugaskan kepada PT Rekayasa Industri dan proyek pipa gas Kalija II yang ditugaskan kepada PT Bakrie Brothers Tbk. 

Khusus proyek pipa gas ruas Cirebon - Semarang, Kepala BPH Migas Fanshurullah Asa mengatakan, pihaknya akan bertemu dengan Rekayasa Industri untuk membahas penyelesaian proyek   

"Rekayasa Industri mengirim Surat ke BPH Migas tanggal 18 September 2017 dan meminta waktu untuk presentasi progres pembangun pipa Cirebon-Semarang," katanya.

Sebelumnya, BPH Migas telah memanggil Rekayasa Industri pada 6 Juli 2017 lalu untuk mempresentasikan perkembangan pembangunan ruas pipa transmisi Cirebon-Semarang sepanjang 255 kilometer dengan nilai investasi US$ 400 juta.

Hasilnya, Rekayasa Industri sampai saat ini belum juga merealisasikan pembangunan pipa mas transmisi Cirebon - Semarang, karena kendala pasokan gas dan pembeli. Proyek ini berhenti selama hampir 11 tahun.

Head of Marketing and Product Development Division PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk Adi Munandir mengungkapkan, Indonesia hingga saat ini belum juga memiliki masterplan pembangunan infrastruktur gas. Padahal masterplan diperlukan untuk mengimplementasikan perencanaan, mulai dari produksi gas, pengembangan gas, hingga industri yang akan dibangun.

Kontan, Page-18, Thursday, Sept 14, 2017

Shares of Mahakam Block Removable Maximally 39%

The government will send a letter to PT Pertamina which revised the maximum limit of Mahakam Block share participation share up to 39%. Previously, the maximum limit of shares that could be released only 30%.

Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arcandra Tahar said that despite rejecting all incentives request, it opens the opportunity for Total E & P Indonesie to have a maximum participation of 39% in Mahakam Block. To that end, his side immediately sent a letter revising the limit of shares that can be released Pertamina from 30% to 39%.

"As per the direction of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ignasius Jonan, may share down to 39%. Up is a letter we are preparing, "he said in Jakarta.

However, the existence of this letter does not mean that Pertamina should release 39%. The decision concerning the amount of participation rights that turned to Total, will remain based on Pertamina's business negotiations with the French oil and gas company.

"Everything is B to B (business to business). Total ask may not be up to 39%, later B to B with Pertamina, how much and how many shares, "explained Arcandra.

Previously, he said Total E & P Indonesie sent a letter expressing interest in buying 39% stake in the Mahakam Block. This 39% share is a joint for Total (France) and Inpex Corporation (Japan) which each have a 19.5% share, if the proposal is approved. Although Pertamina does not mind as an operator, Total does not want Mahakam Block shares if it is below 39%.

Together with the letter, Total also put forward a number of incentives. These three incentives are investment credit of 17%, acceleration of depreciation to two years only and the production part to be set aside before the cost (First Tranche Petroleum / FTP) 0%. All these incentives have been rejected by the government.

Upstream Director of Pertamina Syamsu Alam said, related to the change in the maximum share down of the Mahakam Block's participation rights have been discussed with his side. It will follow the government's direction on this matter.

"Regarding the amount of PI (participating interest) that can be shared down, of course we will refer to the regulator or the government," he said.

About stock negotiations with Total E & P Indonesia, Syamsu once revealed, there is no time limit. However, it hopes a deal on the acquisition of these shares can be achieved before Pertamina's contract in the Mahakam Block is effective on January 1, 2018.

"Let the January 1, 2018 is clear," said Alam.

Pertamina has drilled three wells in the Mahakam Block. This drilling is done by Total E & P Indonesie, but with funds from Pertamina. The plan, Pertamina will drill 14-15 wells in the Mahakam block this year. Further oil and gas production from these new wells will begin to flow next year.

"He opened the well on January 1, 2018," said Syamsu Alam.

Previously, it was known that Pertamina had signed a new Mahakam Bloc contract starting from 1 January 2018 at the end of 2015. Under the contract, the company promised a signature bonus of US $ 41 million. In addition, state revenues from production bonuses include US $ 5 million from a cumulative production of 500 million barrels of oil equivalent, of US $ 4 million from a cumulative production of 750 million barrels of oil equivalent, and US $ 4 million from a cumulative production of 1,000 million barrels of oil equivalent.

As for the first three-year investment plan, Pertamina pledged US $ 75.3 million. The details are respectively US $ 1.3 million, then US $ 33.5 million, and US $ 40.5 million. Currently, Pertamina begins to manage the Mahakam block in preparation for operator switching. This is to keep the oil and gas production in the block is not free fall.

Mahakam Block-East Kalimantan

IN INDONESIA

Saham Blok Mahakam Dapat Dilepas Maksimal 39%

Pemerintah bakal mengirim surat ke PT Pertamina yang merevisi batas maksimal share down saham partisipasi Blok Mahakam maksimal 39%. Sebelumnya, batas maksimal saham yang bisa dilepas hanya 30%.

Wakil Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Arcandra Tahar mengatakan, meski menolak seluruh permintaan insentif, pihaknya membuka kesempatan bagi Total E&P Indonesie untuk memiliki hak partisipasi di Blok Mahakam maksimal 39%. Untuk itu, pihaknya segera mengirim surat yang merevisi batas saham yang dapat dilepas Pertamina dari 30% menjadi 39%.

“Sesuai arahan Menteri ESDM Ignasius Jonan, boleh share down up to 39%. Up-nya itu suratnya sedang kami siapkan,” kata dia di Jakarta.

Meski demikian, adanya surat ini bukan berarti Pertamina harus melepas 39%. Keputusan soal besaran hak partisipasi yang beralih ke Total, nantinya tetap berdasarkan negosiasi bisnis Pertamina dengan perusahaan migas asal Prancis itu.

“Semuanya B to B (business to business). Total minta boleh tidak sampai 39%, nanti B to B dengan Pertamina, harganya berapa dan besar sahamnya berapa,” jelas Arcandra.

Sebelumnya, dikatakannya Total E&P Indonesie mengirimkan surat yang menyatakan minatnya membeli 39% saham partisipasi Blok Mahakam. Saham 39% ini merupakan gabungan untuk Total (Perancis) dan Inpex Corporation (Jepang) yang masing-masing memiliki jatah 19,5%, jika usulan itu disetujui. Meski tidak keberatan Pertamina sebagai operator, Total tidak menginginkan saham Blok Mahakam jika di bawah 39%.

Bersama dengan surat itu, Total juga mengajukan sejumlah insentif. Ketiga insentif ini yakni, investment credit sebesar 17%, percepatan depresiasi menjadi dua tahun saja dan bagian produksi yang harus disisihkan sebelum dikurangi biaya (First Tranche Petroleum/FTP) 0%. Seluruh insentif ini telah ditolak oleh pemerintah.

Direktur Hulu Pertamina Syamsu Alam menuturkan, terkait perubahan batas maksimal share down hak partisipasi Blok Mahakam itu sudah dibahas dengan pihaknya. Pihaknya akan mengikuti arahan pemerintah soal hal ini. 

“Mengenai besarnya PI (participating interest/hak partisipasi) yang dapat di-share down, tentu kami akan mengacu kepada regulator atau pemerintah,” tuturnya.

Soal negosiasi saham dengan Total E&P Indonesia, Syamsu pernah mengungkapkan, tidak ada batasan waktu. Namun, pihaknya berharap kesepakatan soal akuisisi saham ini dapat dicapai sebelum kontrak Pertamina di Blok Mahakam mulai efektif pada 1 Januari 2018. 

“Biar 1 Januari 2018 sudah jelas,” ujar Alam.

Pertamina telah mengebor tiga sumur di Blok Mahakam. Pengeboran ini dikerjakan oleh Total E&P Indonesie, namun dengan dana dari Pertamina. Rencananya, Pertamina akan mengebor 14-15 sumur di Blok Mahakam pada tahun ini. Selanjutnya produksi migas dari sumur-sumur ini baru akan mulai dialirkan pada tahun depan. 

“Dibukanya sumur pada 1 Januari 2018,” ujar Syamsu Alam.

Sebelumnya, seperti diketahui Pertamina telah meneken kontrak baru Blok Mahakam yang berlaku mulai 1 Januari 2018 pada akhir 2015 lalu. Dalam kontrak itu, perseroan menjanjikan bonus tanda tangan US$ 41 juta. Selain itu juga penerimaan negara dari bonus produksi meliputi US$ 5 juta dari kumulatif produksi 500 juta barel setara minyak, sebesar US$ 4 juta dari kumulatif produksi 750 juta barel setara minyak, dan US$ 4 juta dari kumulatif produksi 1.000 juta barel setara minyak.

Sementara untuk rencana investasi tiga tahun pertama, Pertamina menjanjikan dana sebesar US$ 75,3 juta. Rinciannya secara berurutan US$ 1,3 juta, kemudian US$ 33,5 juta, dan US$ 40,5 juta. Saat ini, Pertamina mulai ikut mengelola Blok Mahakam untuk persiapan peralihan operator. Hal ini untuk menjaga agar produksi migas di blok tersebut tidak terjun bebas.

Investor Daily, Page-9, Wednesday, Sept 13, 2017

April 2018 Study Results of PLN-Keppel Completed

PT PLN states that April 2018 becomes the deadline Study with Pavilion-Keppel related Logistics studies and preparation of small-scale LNG infrastructure. The results of the study with Keppel will be used for gas infrastructure development planning in Tanjung Pinang and Natuna Islands.

PLN Director Amir Rosidin said PLN and Keppel have signed a Head of Agreement (HoA) related to the cooperation at the Singapore Palace last week. The signing took place at a bilateral meeting of state leaders in commemoration of 50 years of Indonesia-Singapore cooperation.

"The cooperation of HOA is based on the principle of equality and mutual benefit of both parties and carried out for 6 not since signed. If the results of the Study are not beneficial to both parties then this HOA does not proceed to the stage of the agreement, "said Amir in Jakarta, Monday (9/11).

Amir said HoA contains activities and intensive discussions related to the peyusunan more in-depth feasibility study related to the distribution of LNG for the region of Tanjung Pinang and Natuna. Then the concept of cooperation framework to distribute LNG owned by PLN from PLN's existing contract with domestic source to small scale plant in Tanjung Pinang and Natuna.

The HoA also includes the development of a small-scale LNG infrastructure for the Tanjung Pinang and Natuna areas adjacent to Singapore.

"So HoA is not a contract sale and purchase transactions LNG. Rather for the preparation of mini LNG infastructure studies with the aim of obtaining the most reliable and efficient logistics solutions. If later the study results obtained higher costs then the study will end without follow-up implementation, "he said.

He said through this HoA with an offer in order to take advantage of the location of Singapore's LNG terminal as the location of the LNG hub. Given the location of Singapore adjacent to several gas-fired generator sites in Sumatra region. He called this cooperation as a form of decrease of Cost of Production (BPP).

"PLN is interested to see whether the utilization of Singapore's LNG terminal to be proposed by the Pavilion-Keppel can lower BPP in Sumatra," he said.

Amir further explains the area of ​​Tanjung Pinang and Natuna growing. Currently the supply of Tanjung Pinang comes from Batam. As a tourist destination, PLN supports it by providing electricity supply not only from Batam.

     This is to avoid things that are not in want when the supply from Batam stalled. While Natuna region with the development of fishery industry required a qualified power supply to support it. Although there is currently a reserve margin of 4 megawatts.

"We think Natuna should be upgraded though there is a reserve margin of 4 MA. But we think the future needs to be prepared, "he said.

IN INDONESIA

April 2018 Hasil Studi PLN-Keppel Selesai

PT PLN menyatakan bahwa April 2018 menjadi tenggat waktu Studi bersama Pavilion-Keppel terkait studi logistik dan penyiapan infrastruktur LNG Skala kecil. Hasil kajian dengan Keppel akan dipakai untuk perencanaan pembangunan infrastruktur gas di Tanjung Pinang dan Kepulauan Natuna.

Direktur PLN Amir Rosidin mengatakan PLN dan Keppel telah menandatangani Head of Agreement (HoA) terkait kerjasama tersebut di Istana Singapura pada pekan lalu. Penandatangan berlangsung pada pertemuan bilateral pemimpin negara dalam rangka memperingati kerjasama Indonesia-Singapura yang ke 50 tahun.

“Kerjasama HOA ini didasarkan atas asas kesetaraan dan saling menguntungkan kedua belah pihak serta dilakukan selama 6 bukan sejak ditandatangani. Bila hasil studi yang dibuat tidak memberikan manfaat bagi kedua belah pihak maka HOA ini tidak dilanjutkan ke tahap menuju perjanjian,” kata Amir di Jakarta, Senin (11/9).

Amir menuturkan HoA berisi kegiatan dan diskusi intensif terkait peyusunan Studi kelayakan yang lebih mendalam terkait distribusi LNG untuk wilayah Tanjung Pinang dan Natuna. Kemudian pembuatan konsep kerangka kerjasama untuk mendistribusikan LNG milik PLN dari kontrak eksisting PLN dengan Sumber domestik ke pembangkit skala kecil di Tanjung Pinang dan Natuna. 

Selain itu HoA juga berisi pengembangan infrastruktur LNG Skala kecil untuk wilayah Tanjung Pinang dan Natuna yang letaknya berdekatan dengan Singapura.

“Jadi HoA ini bukan kontrak transaksi jual beli LNG. Melainkan untuk Studi penyiapan infastruktur mini LNG dengan tujuan mendapatkan solusi logistik yang paling handal dan efisien. Jika nantinya hasil studi diperoleh biaya lebih tinggi maka studi akan berakhir tanpa tindak lanjut implementasi,” ujarnya.

Dikatakannya melalui HoA ini dengan penawaran agar dapat memanfaatkan lokasi terminal LNG Singapura sebagai lokasi LNG hub. Mengingat lokasi Singapura yang berdekatan dengan beberapa lokasi pembangkit berbahan bakar gas di wilayah Sumatera. Dia menyebut kerjasama ini sebagai bentuk penurunan Biaya Pokok Produksi (BPP). 

“PLN tertarik untuk melihat apakah pemanfaatan terminal LNG Singapura yang akan diajukan Pavilion-Keppel dapat menurunkan BPP di wilayah Sumatera," katanya.

Lebih lanjut Amir menjelaskan wilayah Tanjung Pinang dan Natuna Semakin berkembang. Saat ini pasokan Tanjung Pinang berasal dari Batam. Sebagai destinasi wisata maka PLN menyokongnya dengan menyediakan pasokan listrik bukan hanya dari Batam. 

    Hal ini guna menghindari hal yang tidak di inginkan bila pasokan dari Batam terhenti. Sedangkan kawasan Natuna dengan berkembangnya industri perikanan diperlukan pasokan listrik yang mumpuni guna menunjang hal tersebut. Meskipun saat ini terdapat reserve margin Sebesar 4 megawatt.

“Kami berpikir Natuna harus ditingkatkan pelayanannya meskipun disana ada reserve margin 4 MA. Tapi kami berpikir kedepan memang perlu disiapkan,” ujarnya.

Investor Daily, Page-9, Wednesday, Sept 13, 2017

CEFC deepens oilties with Russia Rosneft deal

Chinese conglomerate CEFC has agreed to buy a 14.16 percent stake in oil major Rosneft for US$ 9.1 billion from a consortium of  Glencore and the Qatar Investment Authority strengthening energy partnerships with Moscow, according to an announcement by  Glencore released on Sept 8.

Following the deal, CEFC will become the third-largest share-holder in Rosneft after the Russian government and BR CEFC Chairman Ye  Jianming was quoted by www.yicai.com as saying that the deal, China’s second-largest oil and gas acquisition after the $15.1 billion purchase of Canada’s Nexen by CNOOC in 2013, will enable further cooperation between CEFC and Rosneft while meeting China's energy demand. 

The transaction is conditioned on the consortium electing to proceed following the completion of final negotiations and on receipt by CEFC of all necessary regulatory approval, Glencore said in the announcement.  Following the transaction, Glencore and QIA would retain an economic interest in Rosneft shares commensurate with their original equity investment announced in December 2016, which amounts to approximately 0.5 percent and 4.7 percent respectively it said.

CEFC was quoted by Reuters as saying the deal would give it annual equity oil production of 42 million metric tons and access to oil and  gas reserves of 2.67 billion tons. According to Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Net Consulting, China and Russia complement each other as producers and exporters on the one hand and importers and suppliers on the other, which creates a perfect  atmosphere for win-win deals.

The deal will allow China, the world's second-largest energy consumer, to boost cooperation with the world's top oil producer, which  also tops the list of Chinese crude suppliers, he said. 

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin was quoted by Reuters as saying CEFC would get access to Rosneft's oil fields and petrochemical projects in East Siberia to guarantee bigger synergies.

China and Russia have strengthened their oil and gas cooperation in recent years, including the Yamal liquified natural gas project in the Arctic region of Russia, the world's first integrated project for polar natural gas exploration, development, liquefaction and transportation. 

Earlier this decade, Beijing also loaned $25 billion to Russia to help it build a pipeline from Siberia. Moscow has been seeking to boost energy cooperation with China, especially since the United States sanctions on Russia, which also make it challenging for large Western firms including Glencore to-cooperate with state-owned firms such as Rosneft.

Despite the optimistic oil cooperation, the transactions have also raised questions among analysts over its lack of transparency Li Li, the  energy research director at ICIS China, a consulting company that provides analysis of the energy market, said the deal was arranged hastily and the details remain unclear.

Jakarta Post, Page-18, Wednesday, Sept 13, 2017

EXxonMobil’s LNG price cut to India bad omen for producers

India has won a price cut on a 20-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal with global giant ExxonMobil Corp in a rare contract renegotiation, a bad sign for producers in a heavily oversupplied global market.

In a trade-OH for ExxonMobil, India’s Petronet LNG (PLNG. NS) will increase its volumes from the Gorgon LNG project in Australia ‘by an extra 1 million tons a year to about 2.5 million tons a year, but at cheaper rates than initially agreed in 2009.

Long-term contracts are rarely revised in the LNG market, and for a big producer to cave in shows how supply from new plants 'in Australia and the United States over the past two years has transformed the market, analysts said.

“This trend is overall a negative for sellers, as they are forced to provide more flexibility to buyers’ needs to maintain their markets,” said Saul Kavonic, an analyst with energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.

India has been aggressive in seeking cheaper deals, also renegotiating a contract with Qatar in 2015, but the real pain for producers would come if major Asian buyers in Japan, Korea and China followed suit.

“Happy to share good news that India has, yet again been able to address the long term price issue of LNG from Gorgon to suit Indian market,” India’s oil minister, Dharmendra Pradhan, said on Saturday on social media.

Indian consumers would soon receive LNG at an “amicable price,” Pradhan said. India started receiving Gorgon supplies from January this year. Petronet said in a stock exchange announcement on Monday it had reached a “broad understanding of terms” with ExxonMobil, without giving further details.

Citing market sources, RBC analyst Ben Wilson estimated ExxonMobil would receive 15 percent less revenue per unit on its sales to Petronet under the new deal.

If ExxonMobil had not agreed to renegotiate, Petronet might have scrapped the agreement, leaving the major to pursue damages and resell the volumes on a weak spot market.

“They’ve probably taken the lesser of two evils,” said Wilson, adding that it did not bode well for other LNG producers such as Australia’s Woodside Petroleum which has targeted India to diversify its heavy exposure to Japan and South Korea.

In a major shift from previous contractual terms, Exxon has agreed to absorb shipping charges, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The original LNG supplies would be priced at less than 14 percent of the Brent oil price, down from about 14.5 percent earlier, while the additional supplies would be priced about 12.5 percent of Brent, the sources said.

ExxonMobil, which controls about a quarter of the 15.6 million tons a year Gorgon project, had no immediate comment. Analysts said the fact India had managed to force ExxonMobil to renegotiate was the latest proof that buyers have the upper hand in a market where LNG spot prices are well below oil linked contract prices that were signed during the oil boom.

“The risk of price renegotiations will become more acute over the next couple years as spot LNG prices remain depressed, even if oil linked prices rise,” Wood Mackenzie’s Kavonic said.

“The elephant in the room will be how negotiations play out with traditional markets in Japan and Korea, and especially the Chinese national oil companies.”

The Jakarta Post, Page-20, Wednesday, Sept 13, 2017